The WOW Counties doesn't have much power as people think
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  The WOW Counties doesn't have much power as people think
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Author Topic: The WOW Counties doesn't have much power as people think  (Read 499 times)
SilverStar
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« on: April 26, 2024, 02:32:32 PM »

People seems to think that the WOW are what decide Wiscosnin's election reuslts or something  but WOW Counties are only 13% of Wisconsin populetion.
Romney lost Wisconsin by 7% despite doing well in WOW.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1 on: April 26, 2024, 03:23:29 PM »

Substantial improvement by Democrats in the WOW counties (particularly Ozaukee and Waukesha) and in the suburbs in Milwaukee County have allowed Democrats to remain competitive in Wisconsin (and actually have a narrow advantage in off year elections), even has they've lost substantial ground in the rural areas. 
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leecannon
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« Reply #2 on: April 26, 2024, 03:50:38 PM »

> not that important

> over 10% of the state in 3 counties
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SilverStar
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« Reply #3 on: April 26, 2024, 07:32:10 PM »
« Edited: April 26, 2024, 07:37:02 PM by SilverStar »

> not that important

> over 10% of the state in 3 counties
They are importent but the 87% of Wisconsin who doesn't live in WOW are more importment.
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SilverStar
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« Reply #4 on: April 26, 2024, 07:34:13 PM »

Substantial improvement by Democrats in the WOW counties (particularly Ozaukee and Waukesha) and in the suburbs in Milwaukee County have allowed Democrats to remain competitive in Wisconsin (and actually have a narrow advantage in off year elections), even has they've lost substantial ground in the rural areas. 
Demorats should try to improve in rural areas
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Nyvin
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« Reply #5 on: April 26, 2024, 09:07:39 PM »

Democrats actually do really good in rural Wisconsin for the most part, except a few areas like Clark and Taylor counties and that whole area north of Green Bay.   It's how they keep the GOP margins down in the other areas and run up the score in Dane and Milwaukee that keeps them competitive in the state.

If rural Wisconsin voted like rural Missouri or rural Indiana they probably wouldn't be able to win much of anything. 

There's no county in all of Wisconsin that gave Trump 80% of the vote, and I think only 3 that gave him over 70%.   Meanwhile in places like Missouri and Indiana those kind of counties are everywhere. 

Dane/Milwaukee is a smaller chunk of the state than KC/St Louis is in MO but MO Dems can't win the state no matter how much they run up the score in KC/St Louis.
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SilverStar
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« Reply #6 on: April 26, 2024, 09:16:59 PM »
« Edited: April 26, 2024, 09:27:23 PM by SilverStar »

Democrats actually do really good in rural Wisconsin for the most part, except a few areas like Clark and Taylor counties and that whole area north of Green Bay.   It's how they keep the GOP margins down in the other areas and run up the score in Dane and Milwaukee that keeps them competitive in the state.

If rural Wisconsin voted like rural Missouri or rural Indiana they probably wouldn't be able to win much of anything.  

There's no county in all of Wisconsin that gave Trump 80% of the vote, and I think only 3 that gave him over 70%.   Meanwhile in places like Missouri and Indiana those kind of counties are everywhere.  

Dane/Milwaukee is a smaller chunk of the state than KC/St Louis is in MO but MO Dems can't win the state no matter how much they run up the score in KC/St Louis.
Democrats used to win those rural Counties,they should do it again
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wnwnwn
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« Reply #7 on: April 27, 2024, 06:43:00 PM »

Democrats actually do really good in rural Wisconsin for the most part, except a few areas like Clark and Taylor counties and that whole area north of Green Bay.   It's how they keep the GOP margins down in the other areas and run up the score in Dane and Milwaukee that keeps them competitive in the state.

If rural Wisconsin voted like rural Missouri or rural Indiana they probably wouldn't be able to win much of anything.  

There's no county in all of Wisconsin that gave Trump 80% of the vote, and I think only 3 that gave him over 70%.   Meanwhile in places like Missouri and Indiana those kind of counties are everywhere.  

Dane/Milwaukee is a smaller chunk of the state than KC/St Louis is in MO but MO Dems can't win the state no matter how much they run up the score in KC/St Louis.
Democrats used to win those rural Counties,they should do it again

The effects of the 80s farm crisis and some protectionist leans of the corn belt made them blue. The GOP is not the Reagan party anymore.
 
Democrats should instead focus on unionising NC and GA, and support investments on OH.
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TimTurner
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« Reply #8 on: April 28, 2024, 02:49:31 AM »

Democrats actually do really good in rural Wisconsin for the most part, except a few areas like Clark and Taylor counties and that whole area north of Green Bay.   It's how they keep the GOP margins down in the other areas and run up the score in Dane and Milwaukee that keeps them competitive in the state.

If rural Wisconsin voted like rural Missouri or rural Indiana they probably wouldn't be able to win much of anything. 

There's no county in all of Wisconsin that gave Trump 80% of the vote, and I think only 3 that gave him over 70%.   Meanwhile in places like Missouri and Indiana those kind of counties are everywhere. 

Dane/Milwaukee is a smaller chunk of the state than KC/St Louis is in MO but MO Dems can't win the state no matter how much they run up the score in KC/St Louis.
If I had to guess, liberal migration into the state boosts the D floor there.
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BRTD
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« Reply #9 on: April 29, 2024, 02:46:18 PM »

I've been thinking about this lately having been in Milwaukee this weekend.

If you color in all of WOW and Milwaukee County on DRA and then remove Milwaukee proper, the remaining area voted for Trump by 53.96-44.42. Yes this does include some Milwaukee County suburbs that are fairly D, especially the ones on the northeast side right by Lake Michigan, but there's no reason to just dismiss those when talking about state numbers. And this area in raw votes voted for Trump by just over 60k which is easily canceled out by Milwaukee proper. This is really not a reliable vote bank for the Republicans unless there's no other D strongholds in the state, which is obviously not true with Dane County existing.

Now if you remove the areas covered above and Dane County, the rest of the state voted for Trump 55.06-43.17, and by just under 247k raw votes. That is a pretty solid vote bank even if it just barely cancels out Dane County, but still, not enough in 2020 and it hasn't been enough for any Republican since 2016 aside from Ron Johnson quite narrowly (and I guess Hagedorn if you count the 2019 Supreme Court election although if you do there's more liberal victories since then than his one.)

Considering the margins in WOW keep decreasing, and Dane County keeps increasing in population...this could be trouble going forward. Republicans could counter it if they could wring more votes out of rural Wisconsin, but it's declining in population...remember they need to increase raw votes, not just the margins. Of course it's also possible that trends like WOW's margins decreasing won't continue indefinitely as Atlas tends to assume, but for now it's easy to see why Wisconsin Republicans act pretty nervous.
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peenie_weenie
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« Reply #10 on: April 29, 2024, 04:57:38 PM »

> not that important

> over 10% of the state in 3 counties

Not just that but it's demographically full of higher propensity voters than most of the rest of the state.
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