Early Polls Don't Really Mean Much.

[NHPolitico]

And in the ABC/Washington post poll this week: 54% of americans believe he exagerated the WMD issue. Sounds to me like his big issue of 'integrity' is slipping, and that is the biggest problem he has

Same poll has his honesty and trustworthiness score pegged at 52%, down from 70% pre-war.

Dems are now using AWOL in non-national guard ways. He's AWOL on jobs, AWOL on affordable health care. They know that they've accomplished what they need to and don't even care about whether he was AWOL in the national guard.

[NHPolitico]

This is where Bush is in comparison to 1996 (both Gallup):

(2004)
2/6-8 (Bush-Kerry-Undecided): 49-48-3
1/29 - 2/1 (Bush-Kerry-Undecided): 46-53-1
1/9-11 (Bush-Kerry-Undecided): 55-43-2

(1996)
3/15-17 (Clinton-Dole-Undecided): 54-42-4
3/8-10 (Clinton-Dole-Undecided): 54-42-4
2/23-25 (Clinton-Dole-Undecided): 56-40-4
1/26-29 (Clinton-Dole-Undecided): 54-42-4
1/12-15  (Clinton-Dole-Undecided): 48-49-3
1/5-7  (Clinton-Dole-Undecided): 46-49-5

Clinton did benefit from a tough GOP primary fight.  Bush doesn't really get that benefit.