The Ceiling

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

August 2nd, 2011: NEGOTIATIONS BREAK DOWN AS NATION HITS DEBT CEILING

"Good evening. My fellow Americans, we have reached a crisis. Negotiations have failed, and we are nearing the possibility of default, something which would, as many already know, be catastrophic. However, there is one last resort. Today, I signed an executive order which would raise the debt ceiling without approval from Congress. It is something I did not wish to do, but we were faced with a choice. The last thing I want is for the United States to default on its debt, which would require deep, immediate, and harmful cuts, likely to critical programs..."



"He's not getting away with this sh**t". -Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA) to aides

"This represents a stunning overreach of presidential duties and is more proof that we need a true conservative in office!"-Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN), 2012 presidential candidate

August 5th, 2011:

CRISIS! SUPREME COURT STRIKES DOWN OBAMA DEBT CEILING RAISE 5-4
DOW PLUMMETS
OBAMA TO GIVE SPEECH TO JOINT SESSION OF CONGRESS AUGUST 9TH

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

"I'm sorry, Michelle. It's for the good of the country."

___________

"To all members of Congress, we are faced with the consequences of our failure to reach a deal. But we are not the losers. We have let down the American people, many of whom voted a lot of new members of this chamber last year in to better serve the people. We have let down the nation, and we have plunged the nation, and possibly the globe, even deeper into recession. We are now faced with the toughest decisions in decades. We may have to choose between Social Security checks or payments to soldiers and government employees. Our national defense may have to make serious cuts, and massive changes to the tax code must be on the table as well...

...I believe that getting this nation on the right track is the number one priority. It should be at the top for every person in this chamber. And I have had to make a major decision of my own. For the next two years until the end of my term, I will focus 100% on improving the economy. I have decided that a campaign for presidential re-election would be too time-consuming when our nation is in such peril. As such, I will not seek the Democratic Party nomination for the presidency a second time...

...but after all this, I believe that at the end of the day, the sun will shine over America again. We are at a crossroads, and with nowhere to go but up, I remain confident that we will survive this second dip, and that America will prosper again. To all those who say that America is a declining power, that other nations have taken center stage, we will prove you wrong. For all those in this chamber who want to see 'Morning in America' once again, we will work with you, no matter the party, for the good of this nation.

God bless you, and may God bless the United States of America."

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

"Mrs. Bachmann, we are facing a second recession and what may be the worst drop we've seen since 1929. Though I oppose this administration's unwillingness to negotiate, and believe that he is ultimately responsible for this crisis, it is irresponsible to support the fall of the global economy for political gain, just as it was irresponsible of President Obama to push back every deal that he didn't want."-Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich (R-GA)


AMES STRAW POLL RESULTS:


1. Ron Paul, 26.9
2. Michele Bachmann, 23.8
3. Tim Pawlenty, 16.0%
4. Rick Santorum, 10.1%
5. Herman Cain, 9.6%
6. Newt Gingrich, 8.3%

Though the Republican base was at first overjoyed that the president had declined to seek a second term, it soon became apparent that the Democrats would be running primaries to select their candidate. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) ruled out a run almost immediately, as did Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY). With the two most obvious standard bearers out, the field was wide open.

A lack of top tier challengers was evident, with the only candidates so far being former Congressman Artur Davis (D-AL), Congressman Dennis Kucinich (D-OH), and Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), notable for his campaign slogan, "Whitehouse for the White House". Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) formed an exploratory committee on August 24th, but ended it four days later and opted out of the race. The current frontrunner by default was Governor Martin O'Malley (D-MD), but well over half of Democrats remained undecided in the presidential race based on the early candidates.

That second-rate field, however, would not last for long, as another man stepped onto a podium in Nashville, Tennessee.

"We can't afford a return to Republican policies. I have decided that, for my country, I will seek the presidency next year."

GALLUP POLLING:

Do you approve or disapprove of President Obama's job performance?

A: 35%
D: 53%

Do you approve or disapprove of Congress's performance?

A: 6%
D: 84%

Do you support or oppose President Obama's decision not to run for re-election next year?

S: 37%
O: 36%

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

With only one well-known candidate in the Democratic race, former Vice President Al Gore (D-TN) was the early frontrunner in a landslide.

Aggregate polling as of 9/01/11:

Gore 53%
O'Malley 6%
Kucinich 5%
Whitehouse 3%
Davis 2%

Republican presidential polling as of 9/01/11:

Perry 26%
Romney 21%
Paul 10%
Bachmann 8%
Gingrich 8%

The first Democratic debates were scheduled for Tuesday, September 26th, 2011. With a lack of candidates, the CNN debate allowed in any Democrat who had broken at least 1% in a national poll within the month. The only notable candidate not yet in the debate was former senator Mike Gravel (D-AK), though he hoped to make the list by the day of the debate.

Meanwhile, the Republican primaries seemed to be a two-man race between former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and Texas governor Rick Perry. Though Perry took an early lead after his announcement on the day of the Ames Straw Poll, he had stumbled since then with mediocre debate performances, and was now neck-and-neck with Romney. The Romney campaign, meanwhile, had begun preparing an arsenal attacking Perry's record, while Perry focused on attacking Romney's switches on several issues and connections with "Obamacare.
______________________________

"Honey, Gore's in the race now. It's a waste of money. I don't think you could win."

"They said that about Obama when he went against Hillary Clinton. Washington is broken, and I have to fix it."

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Any bets on the mystery Gore challenger?

(It'll be revealed in the post after the next one)

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

"We unequivocally oppose the President's spending plan as an attack on job creators."-Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

Needless to say, Congressional Republicans stood against the plan to pay for the default from the president. The proposed bill would slash spending for Medicare, defense, and a massive number of non-discretionary funding, attack tax loopholes, and end the Bush tax cuts on the wealthy. However, Democrats remained in negotiations with some moderate Republicans to gain 60 seats for support in the Senate.

Meanwhile, the Republican Party was divided, with the Tea Party Caucus pushing a budget viewed as extreme even by the Republican establishment. However, since their support was necessary, Senate and House Republican leaders were at the table with the Tea Party as well. Meanwhile, Senator McConnell, already known for pork spending, would soon have some parts of these negotiations come out...

BREAKING NEWS: SENATE MINORITY LEADER ALLEGEDLY TOOK LOBBYIST BRIBES, SENATE DEMOCRATS CALL FOR CENSURE OR WORSE

With elements of various insidious deals quickly coming out, much of the Senate, even many Republicans, condemned the minority leader and called for censure. Reid was also supportive of censure, with #3 Democrat Chuck Schumer (D-NY) openly putting expulsion on the table, though claimed to prefer censure.

To avoid the growing circus, and already weary from constant negotiations, Mitch McConnell made the decision to resign on September 24th, 2011. Kentucky Governor Steve Beshear (D) appointed Attorney General and 2010 Senate candidate Jack Conway to fill his seat until a special election could be held in 2012.

Meanwhile, the September 27th Democratic debate's attendees had been finalized by CNN:

Former Representative Artur Davis of Alabama
Former Vice President Al Gore of Tennessee
Former Senator Mike Gravel of Alaska
Representative Dennis Kucinich of Ohio
Governor Martin O'Malley of Maryland
Governor Brian Schweitzer of Montana
Senator Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Next update is the Democratic debates.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Eh, that thing's dead.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

WOLF BLITZER: Vice President Gore, in recent years you have devoted your career to showcasing environmental issues, in particular global warming. In these tough economic times, do you think that people may prefer to see candidates put the economy first?

AL GORE: Though focus now may be on the economy, I believe that issues often go together, and can be solved through similar means *applause*. For years, I have advocated ending our dependence on fossil fuels, especially from foreign sources, and looking into alternative energy sources. Focusing on these new areas can revitalize our economy, be they creating parts for windmills in an Ohio factory or using those windmills in a field in Iowa.


_______________________________________________________________

WOLF BLITZER: Governor Schweitzer, you have just entered the race, after the entry of current frontrunner Al Gore. Do you believe that, even with the former Vice President against you, that you can win this race?

BRIAN SCHWEITZER: Yes I do--else I wouldn't be running. You know, there was a man who went against his advisers and ran against the former First Lady. Today, he's the president *applause*. In 1992, a little-known kid from Arkansas took on a president who started 1991 with 90% approval, and you know what? He won. I'm not saying it will be easy--it never will be--but I believe with great confidence that this year, voters will look for a fresh new start to our great nation *applause*.



WOLF BLITZER: Mr. Vice President, we'll give you a chance to respond.

Al Gore: *chuckles* Well, I think you've been a solid governor, Mr. Schweitzer, and let's agree to have a match. Even though I've started this campaign with an advantage in recognition, I think this will be an interesting election, and I look forward to working hard on the campaign trail.

_________________________________________________________

Poll of Democrats:

Did you watch the New Hampshire CNN debate?

44% Yes
56% No

Who are you currently supporting for the Democratic nomination of the current candidates?

Al Gore 45%
Schweitzer 16%
O'Malley 5%
Kucinich 4%
Whitehouse 2%
Davis <1%
Gravel <1%

Poll of Republicans:

Who are you supporting for the Republican nomination of these candidates?

Rick Perry 26%
Mitt Romney 24%
Newt Gingrich 12%
Herman Cain 7%
Ron Paul 8%
Michele Bachmann 7%
Rick Santorum 2%
Jon Huntsman 1%
Gary Johnson 1%



Newtmentum?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I'm planning for one more person...

Nobody you mentioned, though.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

"As the nation squabbles and our Speaker refuses to budge even in this crisis, I see no choice but to bring myself to seek the Presidency."-Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)




PERRY: "AT LEAST THE COON WON'T BE IN OFFICE SOON"
CAIN CONDEMNS PERRY SLUR
RICK PERRY APOLOGIZES, BUT VOWS TO STAY IN RACE

PPP: If the primary were held today and the candidates were *list*, how would you vote?

Romney 29%
Gingrich 14%
Bachmann 12%
Paul 9%
Cain 9%
Perry 7%
Santorum 2%
Huntsman 2%
Johnson 1%
Others 1%
Undecided 14%

PPP: If the primary were held today and the candidates were *list*, how would you vote? (6 days after Sen. Gillibrand's entry)

Gore 32%
Schweitzer 20%
Gillibrand 11%
O'Malley 5%
Kucinich 4%
Whitehouse 2%
Davis 1%
Gravel <1%
Undecided 25%

"Governor, you've not only offended millions but played right into the hands of the Democratic Party. This is why we can't win the African-American vote, or the Hispanic vote. We need to fully support equality and condemn racism if we are to progress as a nation and survive as a party."-Mitt Romney (R-MA)
_____________________________________________
So that's two monkey wrenches at once.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Damn, I forgot about this.

Next update should be on Sunday, along with a short timeline I've been toying with.