According to Atlas, the race has shifted dramatically towards Trump in one week

[2016]

I've been on Atlas for almost 15 years and many, many election cycles. In that time, here are some of the takes that caught on here:

Romney was going to easily beat Obama in 2012
Allison Lundergan Grimes would beat Mitch McConnell in 2014
Hillary would easily win in 2016
"Resistors" would propel Beto O'Rourke to victory over Ted Cruz
Biden was gonna get the 413 map (his 2020 map + Texas, NC, Ohio and Iowa) in 2020
The Republicans were headed for a Red Wave in 2022
And last year, that Andy Beshear was "in trouble" in KY, and Brandon Pressley was going to win in MS

After all that, I've learned not to take our predictions too seriously. There's a lot of overreacting, dooming and concern trolling. At the end of the day, we're all a bunch of armchair quarterbacks.

Idk who will win this year, but I wouldn't bet any money based on fickle Atlas consensus that changes daily.

Here's what I do know:

Trump has a rock-solid base and may benefit from anti-Biden sentiment, but his legal troubles and his actions on issues like abortion and Jan 6 are extremely concerning to the type of voters he needs to win.

Meanwhile, Biden is dealing with a major schism in the Democratic Party over Israel, voters understandably have concerns about his age, and high prices continue to weigh heavily on people. However, he is an incumbent running a very disciplined campaign in a period of economic growth; history shows that will be hard to beat.

That points to a very competitive election!

Again, gaslighting at the highest order! People can't afford anything right now because of the high interest rates. The Jobs Report today: Much weaker. The Economy has peaked. It will likely go downhill from here.

[GAinDC]

I've been on Atlas for almost 15 years and many, many election cycles. In that time, here are some of the takes that caught on here:

Romney was going to easily beat Obama in 2012
Allison Lundergan Grimes would beat Mitch McConnell in 2014
Hillary would easily win in 2016
"Resistors" would propel Beto O'Rourke to victory over Ted Cruz
Biden was gonna get the 413 map (his 2020 map + Texas, NC, Ohio and Iowa) in 2020
The Republicans were headed for a Red Wave in 2022
And last year, that Andy Beshear was "in trouble" in KY, and Brandon Pressley was going to win in MS

After all that, I've learned not to take our predictions too seriously. There's a lot of overreacting, dooming and concern trolling. At the end of the day, we're all a bunch of armchair quarterbacks.

Idk who will win this year, but I wouldn't bet any money based on fickle Atlas consensus that changes daily.

Here's what I do know:

Trump has a rock-solid base and may benefit from anti-Biden sentiment, but his legal troubles and his actions on issues like abortion and Jan 6 are extremely concerning to the type of voters he needs to win.

Meanwhile, Biden is dealing with a major schism in the Democratic Party over Israel, voters understandably have concerns about his age, and high prices continue to weigh heavily on people. However, he is an incumbent running a very disciplined campaign in a period of economic growth; history shows that will be hard to beat.

That points to a very competitive election!

Again, gaslighting at the highest order! People can't afford anything right now because of the high interest rates. The Jobs Report today: Much weaker. The Economy has peaked. It will likely go downhill from here.

No, the gaslighting is coming from Republicans and Trump supporters who want to sell a false, alternative view of the economy for political gain:

You say nobody can afford anything, yet consumers keep spending like drunken sailors.

You say inflation is out of control, when it's sitting at 3.5 percent -- which is far lower than the 8% peak in 2022 and a far cry from the rates we saw in the 70s and 80s. It's even lower than when Reagan was reelected in a landslide in '84.

You say Trump will be better for communities of color, yet Black unemployment is now sitting at record lows.

You say manufacturing is dead, but we're actually adding more manufacturing jobs under Biden.

And for three years, you've said we're on the brink of recession, and our economy keeps growing.


These are facts, but I know that's hard for MAGA to understand since they lie all the time.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump will do nothing for us extend the tax cuts that's about to expire and put work requirements on food stamps and put Ho on SCOTUS if Thomas retires, that all Trump will that does absolutely nothing for me

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

It's May now and Trump has been ahead in the majority of polls. It is easy to dismiss polls a year before an election, but we're now 6 months out. Trump is absolutely favored. That doesn't mean Biden is doomed given all the issues Trump is facing.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So what if Trump ahead it's votes that count whatever happens to red wave of 22 we never had one it's votes that count not polls

Rassy and Kaplan polls showing Trump up 10 with J6 are amusing

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

I've been on Atlas for almost 15 years and many, many election cycles. In that time, here are some of the takes that caught on here:

Romney was going to easily beat Obama in 2012
Allison Lundergan Grimes would beat Mitch McConnell in 2014
Hillary would easily win in 2016
"Resistors" would propel Beto O'Rourke to victory over Ted Cruz
Biden was gonna get the 413 map (his 2020 map + Texas, NC, Ohio and Iowa) in 2020
The Republicans were headed for a Red Wave in 2022
And last year, that Andy Beshear was "in trouble" in KY, and Brandon Pressley was going to win in MS

After all that, I've learned not to take our predictions too seriously. There's a lot of overreacting, dooming and concern trolling. At the end of the day, we're all a bunch of armchair quarterbacks.

Idk who will win this year, but I wouldn't bet any money based on fickle Atlas consensus that changes daily.

Here's what I do know:

Trump has a rock-solid base and may benefit from anti-Biden sentiment, but his legal troubles and his actions on issues like abortion and Jan 6 are extremely concerning to the type of voters he needs to win.

Meanwhile, Biden is dealing with a major schism in the Democratic Party over Israel, voters understandably have concerns about his age, and high prices continue to weigh heavily on people. However, he is an incumbent running a very disciplined campaign in a period of economic growth; history shows that will be hard to beat.

That points to a very competitive election!

After saying you won’t make a prediction, you make a prediction that it will be a competitive election.

Polls have consistently shown a respectable lead for Trump. Who is to say your competitive prediction joins your list of wrong predictions - because currently it’s a 312 map and a Trump lead in the PV. Could very easily be a comfortable Trump victory. Don’t bet against it.