State Legislatures and Redistricting

[5280]

Hurray. Republicans won the Colorado House...by 1

This is the current CD map for CO. When the redistricting takes place in spring 2011, they should make CD-7 and CD-2 more competetive and less D control IMO. Probably take off the western portion of CD-7 which is part of Arvada, Lakewood, and Westminster, and include that with CD-6, and take off eastern CD-2 (Thornton, Northglenn, Broomfield) and include CD-7 for western Adams county.

to me it would seem that would not change the 7th really and just make the 6th slightly more competitive

I modified it to make it more competitive, include Pueblo with Co Springs, made Arvada, Lakewood and Wheatridge part of CD-6. Take off Thornton, Northglenn, Westy, and Broomfield include with CD-7. CD-2 is less D with the rural part included. Include Erie, Frederick, Longmont and Firestone with CD-4.

If that doesnt work, put the northern suburbs with CD-6 or CD-4

[muon2]

Hilarious that New Hampshire's legislature is about as Republican as Utah's and only behind unambiguously behind Wyoming.

I am also surprised at the the strength of some of other the new Republican majorities. The newly-Republican Alabama Senate is close to a 2/3 majority. For a state that had such large DFL majorities before, Minnesota's Republican majorities are not large but not the razor-thin ones I expected. Maine Senate 60% GOP? I didn't even realise the chamber was considered competitive. (Interestingly, Maine now has a GOP redistricting trifecta, not that it matters much in a state with two districts. Perhaps you could draw an R+1 district?) The Arkansas House, while still majority Democratic, is only 55% from 72% before, and the GOP notoriously failed to nominate candidates that might have won this year.

Yes they could draw an R+1 district in ME, itd look funny and would cost Obama an electoral vote in 2012.

Also, NHs legislature is now veto proof, so technically not a trifecta, but Lynch doesnt really have a say in anything.

On the flip side, will the non-partisan unicameral legislature split the Omaha metro area and reduce the chance of a EV going to Obama in 2012?

[rbt48]

On the flip side, will the non-partisan unicameral legislature split the Omaha metro area and reduce the chance of a EV going to Obama in 2012?
[/quote]

That is a great idea, but I doubt they'll do it.  By the way, non-partisan is a joke.  It is heavily Repuplican on partisan issues.

[muon2]

On the flip side, will the non-partisan unicameral legislature split the Omaha metro area and reduce the chance of a EV going to Obama in 2012?

That is a great idea, but I doubt they'll do it.  By the way, non-partisan is a joke.  It is heavily Repuplican on partisan issues.
[/quote]

I'm quite aware of the real partisan balance, which is why I can imagine the legislature doing that. They can actually do it in the name of reducing county splits as IA does.

[Kevinstat]

Maine actually redistricts after the 2012 election.

I got my State Representative (a Democrat who was defeated for reelection two days ago), to put in a bill to change that after the last election.  I figured 2009 was early enough to make the change, but I hadn't thought about the fact that that would move the Spring/Summer (if the Maine Supreme Court has to do it) 2013 apportionment to Spring/Summer 2011, which (the first half of 2011) was in the fiscal biennium that the Legislature in 2009 was responsible for the budget for.  I've heard the Maine Constitution requires a ballanced budget (I'm unsure of the particulars), and there was a huge projected shortfall assuming the level of expenditures at the time and taxes, fees and whatnot were kept as they are.  Even though the fiscal note was only for $485,000 (Maine has an advisory Apportionment Commission which I believe uses expensive computer software, and while I could whip up a plan myself with perhaps a little help with the town splits for the House and Senate districts with minimal costs that I could swallow, you can't change the rules governing what is expected for state funding of apportionment in a constitutional amendment) and I heard that some offsetting funds would have likely come from the national political parties (that wouldn't be there by 2013), there doesn't seem to have been any consideration of the state covering that cost (really moving an existing cost ahead).

The presiding committee apparently looked at whether national (government) funds were available to offset the cost (they weren't) and at having the next redistricting be in 2012 (which wouldn't be soon enough to go into effect for the 2012 election unless there were major statutory changes to the start of the filing period (currently January 1), the filing deadline (March 15 for major party candidates, which includes the Greens in Maine) and the primary (the second Tuesday in June)) (see the House committeee chairs remarks on his motion to indefinitely postpone (kill) the bill on pages H-573 on this word document of the House Legislative Record for that day).  I found out from the House Chair of that committee (the main committees in the Maine Legislature are joint (House and Senate) committees), whom I had written about a technical error in a floor amendment to the bill in his name (although the committe's policy analyst had written it), that the sponsor (my State Representative) had agreed to the bill being indefinitely postponed.  I wasn't very happy about that, but she did make what I thought was a good effort on the bill for a retired director of some state dental hygene program (she was a dental hygenist by trade, I believe) who had first been elected in 2007 to replace her late husband (who himself had been elected in a special election earlier that year).  And she put infinitely more effort than my Republican State Senator, who was reelected with 63% of the vote on Tuesday) seemed to put in (perhaps my casually mentioning that I had volunteered regularly for the Democrats in 2008 when I called him about my idea that November wasn't wise).  My State Representative had put in what she described as the same bill this summer for next year's session (incumbents can do that), but I'm not sure what will happen to it now that she's been defeated.  There would be logistical issues in trying now to redistrict before the 2012 elections (not as much for Congress as all the timing provisions and even the supermajoiry requirement for enacting a plan are all statutory and can be "notwithstood" in newly enacted statutes or amended by new legislation; I imagine there would be a reluctance to abandon the advisory commission process which is established in the Maine Constitution anyway for legislative redistricting).  The bill could be (or could have been) amended to keep the next redistricting in 2013 but move redistrictings after that from 2023 and every 10 years thereafter to 2021 and every 10 years thereafter.

A "cyberfriend" of mine whom I met through a conservative Maine political website I frequent (I generally post statistical/analytical stuff there like here) and who represents Republicans in recount provided advice and support for the bill last year, getting 1975-1983 ME-01 Congressman and MEGOP redistricting guru David Emery to speak and do some limited lobbying on behalf of the bill.  His State Senator, a Democrat (who unseated a Republican incumbent two years ago and hung on solidly on Tuesday) whom I chatted it up with at a party HQ "opening" (I'd already been there as a jumping point for two canvasses by then), is someone I have in mind as a possible replacement sponsor of the bill.  He was on the committee that handles most bills affecting election law (but not that bill last year, which may have been due to an erroneous subject heading although the committee it went to, State and Local Government, handles most constitutional amendment proposals) in the term now effectively over.  If he doesn't put in the bill I'll try to find someone else.  Republicans might oppose moving the 2013 redistricting ahead now that they're in the majority and might be hurt more by new lines in 2012, but I can't see why a constitutional amendment resolution to move redistricings after 2013 ahead two years (with a companion bill doing the same for congressional, county commissioner, the elected county finace/budget committees in the two conties that elect them redistricting that isn't covered in the Maine Constitution) wouldn't sail through the Legislature next year and get adopted by the voters in the resulting referendum.  Maybe Governor LePage and the newly ascendent Republican legislative leadership won't see it as a priority, but my Republican friend would probably make sure they don't pass up a chance for an easy "win" on a good government issue such as this (more timely redistricting and more equal respresentation between the "2" and "4" year elections).

[Shilly]

So, a list of chambers that swung towards the democrats this year.

HI Senate
CA Assembly
WV Senate
MD Senate
DE House
PA Senate
MA Senate

Analysis is welcome.

[Nichlemn]

I think pretty much all (if not all) of these were single seat changes, so localised races could have swung the difference.

Most of these states are blue states where there wasn't much of a swing in 06/08 and thus little to swing back this year. The exceptions were PA and WV. PA is probably due to Republicans being overextended in the Senate (given that they did make significant gains in the House, they just did it from a lower starting point). WV is kind of interesting given the gains in places like AR, I'd guess Manchin and local factors are responsible.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The Maryland pickups were weird -- a seat on the lower Eastern Shore, definitely not ground zero for Democratic strength, and one in Frederick County, where Ehrlich won double-digits.

Delaware Dems picked up three seats in New Castle County and lost one in Kent. The O'Donnell/Urquhart ticket killed the Republicans in New Castle County; they're down to 5/26 of the NCC house seats. They did pick up a Senate seat in Kent county, though, so the NCC/lower two counties split is growing.

[Brittain33]

I think pretty much all (if not all) of these were single seat changes, so localised races could have swung the difference.

This is what happened in Mass.: the Republican LG candidate was from a Democratic-leaning district so was replaced with a Democrat. Yet it's a sign of Republican underperformance here that they couldn't defeat any incumbent Democratic senators, despite trying.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

haha: Democrats actually increased their majority in the WV State Senate.

[CatoMinor]

According to The National Conference of State Legislatures

Gray - Split Legislature
Green - Non-partisan Unicameral


Before:

After:

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

New York is probably going to end up split not Dem control.

[Meeker]

I'm also pretty sure Tennessee is completely controlled by the Republicans now.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Just to clear up what's happened with the New York Senate: prior to the election, it was 32-30 for the Dems. Four seats have been confirmed as switching parties:

SD-3 - Brian Foley (D) defeated
SD-11 - Frank Padavan (R) defeated
SD-38 - open (R) seat won by D
SD-48 - Darrell Aubertine (D) defeated

In addition, three seats haven't been called yet:

SD-7 - Craig Johnson (D) down by 400 votes
SD-37 - Suzi Oppenheimer (D) up by 500 votes
SD-60 - Antoine Thompson (D) down by 500 votes

So if all of these vote totals hold true, the Republicans will retake control 32-30.

Amazingly, Democrats managed to hold the open SD-58 seat in Erie County.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

New York is probably going to end up split not Dem control.

Just to clear up what's happened with the New York Senate: prior to the election, it was 32-30 for the Dems. Four seats have been confirmed as switching parties:

SD-3 - Brian Foley (D) defeated
SD-11 - Frank Padavan (R) defeated
SD-38 - open (R) seat won by D
SD-48 - Darrell Aubertine (D) defeated

In addition, three seats haven't been called yet:

SD-7 - Craig Johnson (D) down by 400 votes
SD-37 - Suzi Oppenheimer (D) up by 500 votes
SD-60 - Antoine Thompson (D) down by 500 votes

So if all of these vote totals hold true, the Republicans will retake control 32-30.

Amazingly, Democrats managed to hold the open SD-58 seat in Erie County.

If the Democrats lose only 1, the Lt. Governor will break ties, and they'll retain control.

[Lief 🗽]

Well, hopefully we can give two of those Republicans safe seats in exchange for gerrymandering the Congressional map.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Oregon Senate looks like it will be retained by the Dems. It looks like it's 16-14 now; I see two Dem seats the Republicans are leading, SD-20 (currently occupied by Kurt Schrader's wife) and SD-26. I'm guessing the third pickup would've been SD-3, but the Democrat has pulled ahead there by about 250 votes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[nclib]

I've made an updated map:

Red = full Democratic control
Blue = full Republican control
Green = split control
Gray = non-partisan commission (or N.A. for at-large states)

Nebraska is technically non-partisan, but will have a GOP map.
New York has a chance of having full Democratic control.
Minnesota has a chance of having full Republican control.
Rhode Island has an Independent, but will likely have a Democratic map.
New Hampshire has a Democratic Governor, but a veto-proof GOP legislature.
Maine has legislative elections again before it redistricts.

Any other adjustments?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Minnesota has a chance of having full Republican control.

Not a very high chance.

[Smash255]

I've made an updated map:

Red = full Democratic control
Blue = full Republican control
Green = split control
Gray = non-partisan commission (or N.A. for at-large states)

Nebraska is technically non-partisan, but will have a GOP map.
New York has a chance of having full Democratic control.
Minnesota has a chance of having full Republican control.
Rhode Island has an Independent, but will likely have a Democratic map.
Maine has legislative elections again before it redistricts.

Any other adjustments?

Would you mind making a map of who had control for the current lines so we can do a bit of a comparison?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The wave just didn't hit California or Delaware

Delaware: Democrats gain House seat, and state legislature races
California: Democrats gain Governorship, state legislature races, Insurance Commissioner. They possibly lose Attorney General race and 1-2 House seats.

[Nichlemn]

I've made an updated map:

Red = full Democratic control
Blue = full Republican control
Green = split control
Gray = non-partisan commission (or N.A. for at-large states)

Nebraska is technically non-partisan, but will have a GOP map.
New York has a chance of having full Democratic control.
Minnesota has a chance of having full Republican control.
Rhode Island has an Independent, but will likely have a Democratic map.
Maine has legislative elections again before it redistricts.

Any other adjustments?

Wouldn't NH be technical GOP control due to GOP supermajorities in the legislature? Not that it matters a lot with two districts that would probably be about the same either way.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Also, hasn't Iowa too non-partisan redistricting?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Intriguing; I've just had a look through (well, a very quick scan anyway) the PA House results, and the Democrats seem to have held up somewhat better in the west than the rest of the state; which is a little unexpected. DeWeese result not so odd then.