State Legislatures and Redistricting

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Louisiana House looks like it's definitely going to flip. Virginia Senate is probably 50-50, depends on turnout. Mississippi Senate probably flips as well.

I think both New Jersey house and senate are probably safe.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

New York is probably going to end up split not Dem control.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

The sad thing is that if the Dems had held the state senate in NY they could have undone the GOP gerrymander for the senate districts and had a strong chance of holding it for a while. Then again, they didn't exactly prove themselves worthy of having a majority over the last two years so maybe it's for the best. What a dysfunctional state government..

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

I wonder if there are three Arkansas state senators who might switch from D to R to flip that chamber?

Not likely. The Arkansas Democratic Party is almost as strong as that in West Virginia.

What do you mean, "strong"? In terms of electoral strength, clearly not. Democrats retained strong majorities in the West Virginia legislature, whereas they had much reduced majorities in Arkansas even as Republicans failed to contest many seat (I believe the Republicans in fact won every single statewide race or state legislative seat they contested, indicating they almost certainly could have won more if they had contested them).

The fact that they contested so few seats shows the institutional strength of the Democratic Party in Arkansas compared to the rest of the South.

And/or that that Republicans overestimated the Democratic Party's strength. The fact that they would likely have won more seats had they bothered to contest them makes it more likely for Democrats to switch, either because they're afraid they could lose if their seat was contested or that other losses will cause them to fall into the minority next time.

Yeah, pretty much this. I doubt they switch while they're still in the majority though. If the Republicans ever get the majority there, I could see a lot of switches happening.

The West Virginia Democratic party really impressed me a lot more than the dems in Arkansas this cycle.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

For some reason, Democratic control of the NY State Senate always seems cursed.

Probably a mix of being completely incompetent at campaigning and especially governing, plus a great GOP gerrymander of the state senate.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

With Republicans likely to be formally in full control in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Virginia by this time next year, does anyone see Arkansas going Republican within this coming decade?  It is the only remaining southern state (with the possible exception of West Virginia -but no one is sure whether it is 'southern' or not) with Democrats still in full control of the legislature.  

It's certainly possible. Right now the House is 55D - 44R. After being 72-28 the session before. The Senate is 20D - 15R after being 27-8. So they got destroyed in 2010. I imagine if they ever lose the majority they'll have so many party switchers they may never regain it.

West Virginia Democrats held up much, much better.