What would the country's partisan composition be if-

[Person Man]

You counted crossover voters in presidential races as "Independents"?

[Alcon]

Per the 2004 CNN exit poll:

Republican 34.4%
Democrat 32.9%
Independent/Other 32.7%

[Person Man]

Per the 2004 CNN exit poll:

Republican 34.4%
Democrat 32.9%
Independent/Other 32.7%

That sounds reasonable. ...and our last 15 years make more sense when a reasonable plurality of Americans are republicans.

Since there is no cross-over appeal in this paradigm, we know that the independents split

47 Democrat
53 Republic

and in overall terms-

33%- Democrat
15%- Leans Democrat
16%- Leans Republic
34%- Republic
1%- Isolated Grassroots

I wonder how many of the indies really were undecided....

[Alcon]

In 2004, independents went 49-48 for Kerry, but crossovers went 65-35 toward Bush.

[Person Man]

In 2004, independents went 49-48 for Kerry, but crossovers went 65-35 toward Bush.

I know.... I wonder who were really undecided until the last minute-

What I am trying to get at are who are REAL democrats, REAL republicans and REAL independents and who are trying to sound like what they are not in order to triangulate.

[Person Man]

Using this formula as counting crossovers as indys, I wonder what the past elections looked like.


What I am guessing is-

2000-
D-  33.5
R-  31.9
I-  32.1
G-   2.5

Indy Vote- D- 46
                 R-  54