Bush's RNC bounce

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I predict that Bush will will be up 50-42 after the RNC (and maybe a boost from 9/11).  So I choose option 7.

[AuH2O]

I think it will be 5-7 after the convention, but will rise again with 9/11 and then hold more or less in place.

The polls with still show some fluctuation, of course, due to the MoE.

[© tweed]

Up around 3%.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Let's play the expectations game. Bush should be up 15 points, right?

[© tweed]

Let's play the expectations game. Bush should be up 15 points, right?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

He will be down by 1 or 2, the same as before the Dem convention.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

He'll probably be up a couple before his bounce begins to fade and then it'll bacjk to dead even.

[Citizen James]

Let's play the expectations game. Bush should be up 15 points, right?

LOL.

Seriously though, just like the Dems convention there are too many people who have already made up their minds for the polls to fluxuate much.  I think any 'bounce' will be impossible to distingish from the MOE.

Of course, if he turns it into a 'celebration of 9/11', and it comes across as tacky, he might even  lose a few people.   If I were a Republican strategist, that's what I'd be most woried about.(convention in New York, timed to be close to 9/11 - at what point do the few remaining swing voters decide it has been politically milked to death?  What else does he have to boast about?  What other plans does he have for a possible second term?).

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Let's play the expectations game. Bush should be up 15 points, right?

LOL.

Seriously though, just like the Dems convention there are too many people who have already made up their minds for the polls to fluxuate much.  I think any 'bounce' will be impossible to distingish from the MOE.

I think there is an important group of people who have not made up their minds: the "It's the economy, stupid" voters.  If, at the RNC, Bush does a good job convincing the nation that we are on the right track economically, and that he will be able to create more jobs, he could reap a very significant bounce from those who vote their pocketbooks.

[12th Doctor]

3%-6%

I think that resonable.  It will be larger than the Kerry Bounce.

[??????????]

Kerrys bounce was kind of like when you take a half flat kickball and throw it at the ground....ploop.

[MODU]

This election is about Bush.  He controls the fate of Nov 2, not the DNC or any 3rd party campaigns.  Knowing this, I'm sure Bush, Rove, and the GOP are finishing their master plan to use the convention as an American rally.  He has the benefit of having 5 weeks to review the DNC's convention and their limited message for the next 4 years . . . easily trumped by a sharper, more detailed plan.  Additionally, it will be following the Olympics and before the 9/11 remembrances, so he will be able to draw in more of the nationalism into his week, with possibly bringing in some medalists and 9/11 heroes to the convention floor.

However, if he overdoes the 9/11 aspect on the convention, he can hurt himself nationally.

I would say Bush has a much greater chance to pull a bump in the polls, since he's there to reassure the voters that he's not as extreme as the DNC or the media would wish to paint him, so a 6-10% bump is not out of the question.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Very small if any