Nader ballot access

[Lunar]

Good and bad news for Kerry.  The biggest blow is that Nader is on in Ohio, followed by Nevada and then the Midwest (Nader does well in the Midwest, it would have helped Kerry greatly if he Nader couldn't get on).

The good news is Nader missing West Virginia and New Mexico.  Nader got 3.55% in New Mexico in 2000, I think that translates into around a 1.5% boost in that state for 04.  West Virginia Nader got only 1.65%, but every little bit will help in that state.  Arizona is also good news due to Nader getting just a fraction under 3% there in 00.

Pennsylvania is the state to watch, followed by Florida, Oregon, and Michigan (in that order).

[Lunar]

I think he knew that his signatures lacked validity.  Otherwise he would have persued it and benefitted greatly from the media reporting Nader winning a slow battle against the establishment to get his name on the ballot.

[Lunar]

Here's one way of looking at it:


Bright states are contested, gray states are unknown, blue is no Nader and red represents ballot access.

[Lunar]

Nader will likely make it on in Michigan.  He has indicated that if he can't get on with the Reform Party he'll accept the GOP collected signatures.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/07/20/nader.signatures.ap/index.html

Also interesting that Nader spent today meding with the press in Anchorage, Alaska.

[Lunar]

Also interesting that Nader spent today meding with the press in Anchorage, Alaska.

That was his best state in 2000, I wonder if that has something to do with it.

Yes, of coures.  I was simply pointing it out as interesting because Nader's appearence in front of a bookstore in Anchorage is about all of the political activity that will happen in Alaska this campaign season.

[Lunar]

Nader's website claims to have submitted 14k signatures in Missouri (they need 10k valid).

[Lunar]

So does this look right?



Nder submitted more than twice what he needed for West Virginia to I moved that over.