Let's play the expectations game. Bush should be up 15 points, right?
LOL.
Seriously though, just like the Dems convention there are too many people who have already made up their minds for the polls to fluxuate much. I think any 'bounce' will be impossible to distingish from the MOE.
Of course, if he turns it into a 'celebration of 9/11', and it comes across as tacky, he might even lose a few people. If I were a Republican strategist, that's what I'd be most woried about.(convention in New York, timed to be close to 9/11 - at what point do the few remaining swing voters decide it has been politically milked to death? What else does he have to boast about? What other plans does he have for a possible second term?).