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It's obviously close to the courthouse on a day he's in court. But still LOL. That's in the congressional district where the Republican nominee lost 97-3 in 2008.

Gain In DC is very fragile about Biden losing the election. He can't stand it, even when you tell him deep blue territory drifts to the right. bloody murder to him.

These are polls not votes like we are gonna believe these silly polls that Pred a Red wave in 22 and were wrong

Places like Dearborn and Hamtramack in MI were the only parts of the state to swing hard right from 2020 Pres --> 2022 Gov.

Which is to say that Trump has a track record of underperforming “generic R candidate” among these voters. Which is not a great sign that Trump will do great among this group in 2024.

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1791985932523938105

Why is NM Safe D? Also, I think NH is more likely to vote to the left of ME-AL than it is to the right of MN.

To be clear any state I think will be within 15, even if it’s 14.9 (this is roughly where I think KS ends up) gets the “likely” treatment from me

In that case, I think Safe D NJ is a little bit crazy.

Polls in all rust belt states show the race within the margin of error … so I don’t get you saying there is “no data” to back it up.

In that case why not call them toss-ups?

Also, there’s more to predicting an election then just polls, for example, fundamentals, fundraising, specials etc all favour Dems. I’m taking this into account

Is presidential approval rating not a “fundamental” now? How about voters’ opinions on the state of the economy?

GA?

Trump doing really well in Georgia which is GA, might be the reddest swing state.

People say the rust belt will be a great place to live later in the century if climate change and resource constraints really hit home, lots of water, arable land, no major natural disaster phenomena, so I think. Detroit will rise again, cities have long lives

I hope this is the case, but OTOH, what's stopping people from just moving to Columbus or Green Bay instead? The cities in the Midwest that are growing currently aren't the ex-industrial places; they're metro areas that are more like sunbelt cities except for location.

FWIW I do think redrawing the states is a good idea; there are a few too many and there are a lot with nonsensical borders. But I don't think they should be redrawn willy-nilly or to have equal population.

50 states would remain, but each of them would have as close to equal as a population as possible neglecting the need to create propositional representation in Congress.

IMO the obvious solution to this is to actually have proportional representation, not to redraw basic government entities for no reason constantly. Imagine how annoying this would be!

I think they will win at least one of them probably MI-07 since that's the part of the state where downballot Rs probably outperform Trump whereas MI-08 is more ancestrally Dem.

GA?