Maine's Question 1

[Holmes]

Well, it's a good thing you're not leading the No on 1 campaign with that attitude...

I just read SSFM's "The threat to traditional marriage" posting on their site... they went so far as to say that the homosexual lobby repealed a Maine law that stated that children were the most important thing ever in the history of humanity or some dumb thing like that and that a yes vote will restore that law. I can't believe people will actually believe that sh**t. They wrote a lot of stupid talking points.

"We have nothing against the gays... we only bash them on our site when we think they're not reading!"

Quarterly fundraising numbers will be out soon... can't wait to see how much No on 1 made, and how much of Yes on 1's money comes from NOM+Church. Probably a lot.

[Holmes]

Lunar didn't enjoy watching Feinstein read a scripted no on 8 message on his TV?

[Holmes]

Mm, yeah. No on 8 had a lot of options it could've used that they didn't. And they could've done what they did a bit less half ass-y... oh well.

Nate Silver gives No on 1 the advantage: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/10/analysis-gay-marriage-ban-is-underdog.html He says that his same model predicted prop 8 would get 54% but it got 52% so.. hm. Turn out is still most important though.

Religious Leaders Support No on One

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Coalition members also noted that throughout Maine's history, religious liberties have been both valued and protected under the law and that nothing in the new marriage equality law threatens that tradition.

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[Holmes]

I love reading comments from actual presumed voters that Maine has already voted against gay marriage in the past. Why are these people allowed to vote?

I wonder when the finance reports will come out.

[Holmes]

If this is really true, then they better get off their asses during this whole month to get them to vote early, or get them to the polls next month.

The campaign has identified 275,000 Mainers who favor the law, but they all have to actually vote, she said. In addition to television ads, the campaign is blitzing the state with people who are working to bring to people to the polls or, better yet, to get them to vote absentee.

People in Maine can register and vote in the same day. So No on 1 can and needs to go to campuses all over the state, bus a lot of students to polling places and get them to vote.

OUR MAN IN MAINE: Defeating Question 1 About Mobilizing Base - A volunteer talks about his first 2 days volunteering. October is all about volunteers making decided voters go absentee. I guess it's smart having all the out-of-state volunteers work in Portland and the locals in other areas.

[Holmes]

Here's a door to door canvassing script from yes on 1. It's kinda cute.

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I love how they always bring up how this bill will forever repeal a law that said marriage is good for children, or something. Which is not even true. I think they're referring to Maine 1997 DOMA, but all this bill does is include same-sex couples in marriage. sigh. But it's cute how they totally ignore the fact that children of same-sex couples exist, and go to school where they say all the time that hamasecksual marriage will be taught in class, despite everyone in Maine basically now knows that it won't.

[Holmes]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Izj7bCUE2Hg

idk. Children must be protected from the reality that gays exist and if you're a child of a same-sex couple, then feel ashamed and unnatural. Funny thing is that the guy in this video is a school guidance counselor... but personally I don't want anything to happen to him otherwise they'll play the victim card, and play it good.

Also calling that teacher of the year in No on 1's ads a gay activist + again using exaggerated out of state anecdotes as if they'll for sure happen in Maine = . These people are like, I dunno. No words.

[Holmes]

You don't need to lie, you just need to hope that the voters are actually the events watching TV and thinking for themselves. Yes on 1's only argument is "Children become gay by reading gay schoolbooks and every school will be forced to read these books if the law isn't overturned. Do you want your children to be gay?".

Occasionally you'll find the "all gays have AIDS" and "everyone and their mom will get sued for no reason" arguments.

[Holmes]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SuZD_1PcdQw

I heard that this news piece played all over Maine twice in the last two days... it's a good one for the No side, but of course they gotta have the Yes side too bashing diversity and the "POSSIBILITY" of a big change if this law passes, which doesn't even change curricula at all.

The video and book he's holding are ones that are in the curriculum that show diverse families, from gay ones to interracial ones to old ones. And guess what? It was in the curriculum even before the law passed.

Oh wait, now their argument is that if this law is passed, there's gonna be a lot more education on teh gay lifestyle.   

edit: New No on 1 ad

It discusses the book that the "teacher" was holding in their last ad, the one I said had all those diverse families. It's an alright ad, good plug for their site. And has a bunch of Maine families, which are types of people that Yes on 1 ads have been really lacking.

[Holmes]

I like how the No side is now saying that the other side is trying to harm kids from diverse families (and it's not too hard considering Yes is attacking books and videos teaching about diverse families) ... I mean, I know this is really the first time a campaign for same-sex marriage uses the kid argument and it probably won't be that effective at first, but if it can win some votes, who knows.

Occasionally you'll find the "all gays have AIDS" and "everyone and their mom will get sued for no reason" arguments.

oh cool so they're getting their talking points from my dad

Is there something you want to share with us?

[Holmes]

Here it is - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKBkVF6aexA

I also read an editorial about how divorce rates are lower in states with marriage equality, and one of the comments was like "What a great article in support of question 1! Let's send those homosexual activists packing!" Obviously someone can't read.

[Holmes]

http://www.wgme.com/newsroom/top_stories/videos/wgme_vid_869.shtml

No on 1 has the cell phone users vote? No way.....

[Holmes]

$$$

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The NO on 1 campaign, which released its campaign revenues and expenditures in accordance with Maine campaign finance laws, offered these highlights from Q3, the latest reporting period:

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There was a press release/thing from Yes on 1, but like... it was just them complaining that No on 1 totally outraised them, homosexual activists, this is SERIOUS, hamasecsual marriage to 5, 6, 7 year old... blah blah. Here's a run down:

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No on 1: $2.7 million
Yes on 1: $800k ($400k in debt, only $66k CoH :o)

[Holmes]

Also: why is Yes on 1 asking for money by saying it'll help air ads and stuff when it'll probably go to pay off their $400k debt? whatevs.

[Holmes]

From the Pan Atlantic SMS Group

http://www.politico.com/static/PPM41_omnibus_fall_2009.html

[Holmes]

Paul Hogarth was volunteering in Maine the other week, but he's gone now(so no more blog updates ). But he made one recently talking about how we can win in Maine. Has some good insider perspective(all his entries about Maine do... good reads).

http://www.beyondchron.org/news/index.php?itemid=7446


And early voting officially starts statewide today!

[Holmes]

http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/2357628

It's almost an hour long, if anyone is interested. Ack, I've been following this campaign too much. I was able to mouth quite a bit of both side's talking points... ha.

And this is cute, the Harry Potter Alliance is going to Maine next weekend. They're gonna have some concert thing, then have about 100 volunteers canvassing for the day. I've never heard of these people before, but I'm not complaining about 100 canvassers.

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2009/10/15/harry-potter-alliance-asks-maine-muggles-to-oppose-gay-marriage-repeal/

[Holmes]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7YWDTbGBivc

sigh.

If this law stays, kindergardeners will be taught what gay sex is, because some 8th grade teacher in Massachusetts thought about telling her class what's legal in the state.

[Holmes]

Mmm, I guess so. The Massachusetts teacher was a sex-ed teacher for what it's worth, plus all the references to sex in the ad might stir up some abstinence-only program supporters to move more into the yes column. Maybe. All of Yes on 1's ads have basically been about mobilizing the base to get out, though. Not targeting swing voters/independents like the no side.

Portland has to order 2000 additional absentee ballots. 25,000+ absentees mailed statewide. They've been working hard on getting supporters to vote absentee. Early voting in person began yesterday.

[Holmes]

Oooh, Yes on 1's spokesman is the owner of the site "As Maine Goes"? Well, that's not really important.

Bangor Daily News endorses No on 1. Yeah, paper endorsements aren't worth much anymore, but it's a pretty old/influential and conservative-ish paper in the 2nd CD fwiw. Plus there is a number of people up there without internet who still read the papers.

[Holmes]

Mmm, everyone knows it's close. But I hope yes isn't ahead. NOM will probably say that they increased their support by like 10% in less than a week. Cause their ads about gay sex are working.

No on 1 is out with a new ad today. It's alright. I kinda don't like the beginning, it kinda goes in the opposite direction of every other ad they've released.

No on 1 press conference on Yes on 1 lies: Part 1, Part 2


(I put this in the 2010 elections board because it's not a Gubernatorial or State Legislature race, or a Congressional race. Maybe we could use a ballot initiative board. )

[Holmes]

Ughh, these people are so annoying. Nothing in the law about education, over 400 state lawyers say there's nothing to do with schools, and the attorney-general and the education commissioner says that same-sex marriage won't be taught in school if no wins.

But their only argument for the last month and a half has been, "it might be taught." It must be like talking to a 3 year old child that sadly convinces a lot of voters.

[Holmes]

What does it even mean to teach same-sex marriage, or any kind of marriage, in school?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8j2y9WtTPw

I don't know, probably they're talking about same-sex marriage being discussed in class or something, or maybe they're talking about teachers teaching kids how to pair up with another boy or girl, go to city hall and fill out a marriage license under Party A and B. Because that happens.

Also, lice can be scary.

[Holmes]

"It is apparent that our ads about gay sex being taught to kindergardeners is resonating quite well with average Mainers, and the No on 1 campaign's messages of equality for all Maine families is being rejected by the Maine electorate. This is about the radical redefinition of marriage and not equality, screw you Janet Mills, and basically every other public office holder in Maine, nothing is preventing anything from being taught to the kids!"

There, I just predicted their response, so you guys don't have to read it if you find it.

[Holmes]

http://updates.pressherald.mainetoday.com/updates/npr-wants-same-sex-marriage-ad-pulled

Why is SFMM using a company called "hotdaddy" to serve their ads? You know what, I think we should probably not ask.