Maine's Question 1

[Holmes]

"Do you want to reject the new law that lets same-sex couples marry and allows individuals and religious groups to refuse to perform these marriages?"

The group opposed to this referendum is No on 1/Protect Maine Equality. Their campaign manager is Maine's own Jesse Connolly.

The group fighting to pass this referendum is Stand for Marriage Maine. Their campaign manager is California's Schubert Flint.

No on 1/Protect Maine Equality Website

Yes on 1/Stand For Marriage Maine Website

No on 1 ads:
Together
Sam Putnam
Bill Whitten
Clearing Up Distortions
(Radio Ad) Haven
Proud
All Families
Book
Mom

Yes on 1 ads:
Consequences
(Radio Ad) Consequences
Everything To Do With Schools
Safe Schools
Give Me A Break

Polling

Sept. 14-16    
Research 2000/Daily Kos (LV)    
Yes: 48%     No: 46%     Undecided: 6%

Sept. 23-27    
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (GQR) (RV)   
Yes: 41%     No: 50%     Undecided: 9%

Sept. 30 - Oct. 7
Pan Atlantic SMS Group (LV)
Yes: 42.9%     No: 51.8%     Undecided: 5.2%

Endorsements:

No on 1:
Bangor Daily News
Portland Press Herald/Maine Sunday Telegram

Yes on 1:

Campaign finance reports

No on 1 - $2.7million raised, $400k CoH

Yes on 1 - $1.1million raised, $400k in debt, $66k CoH


 

[Holmes]

Yeah. They're free to challenge any law passed by the legislature if they can gather enough signatures. There were two last year, and it seems like there's gonna be five, I think, this November. Washington and Maryland have the same deal going on.

Here's a story I like

Couples criticize church role in gay unions

Two lifelong Catholic couples who are parishioners at St. Raphael's Church in Kittery, Maine, are saying they find legal, moral and ethical problems with efforts of the Portland diocese to repeal the state's same-sex marriage law. Yet they say when they have brought their concerns to the church's hierarchy, they have been ignored.

Jack and Rose Dougherty and Armand and Ann LaSelva, all of Eliot, say they are not involved in the efforts of gay marriage proponents such as Equality Maine, but are merely Catholics who are deeply concerned about the overt political tone taken by their church in recent months.

Their issues range from what they say are essentially dictates from the pulpit, to the fact that diocesan staff are on loan to pro-repeal organization Stand for Marriage of Maine, to legally questionable contributions to Stand for Marriage by the diocese.

And, they say, these efforts are testing their resolve to remain church-going Catholics.

:o

[Holmes]

If Soulty wants to move this there, I wouldn't mind.

First ad begins airing today: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OjXRy9PiOAQ

I would've liked it if it says to vote no on 1, but it wasn't done by the campaign, so what can you do?

[Holmes]

Heh, I really love this post:

http://www.dirigoblue.com/diary/220/so-traditional-it-wasnt-added-to-maine-law-until-1997

Dur...

[Holmes]

Lots of things happening recently. It's officially on the ballot now.

No on 1 press release:

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Maine Ethics Comission's Letter to NOM

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These four organizations = 99.999% of their first quarter donations.

Speaking of donations, I couldn't find a yes on 1 donation page, but this is no on 1's ActBlue page: http://www.actblue.com/entity/fundraisers/22505

Volunteer Vacation in Maine

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First No on 1 ad. Looks like they're getting people who spoke at the public hearing. I hope they also get that 90 year old war vet and the head of Maine's NAACP. The ad I linked previously was not made by No on 1 but it's still on the air.

I think that's it. I don't think 2009 will be a GOP and Democratic year, no candidate is on the ballot. It'll all come down to GOTV and who gets more people to the polls. The No on 1 campaign has identified 80,000 supporters that they can get to the polls, and they're focusing hard on getting early votes in during October. I give them the edge.

[Holmes]

We're not talking about a middle America state like Iowa or Kansas, we're talking about Maine in an election that'll be all about identifying supporters and GOTV.

[Holmes]

The only big city in the state has a huge gay population, and they're really friendly, so they won't stay home. No on 1 won't let them. And Maine's second biggest metro is in ME-02. In 2007, they cast about 240,000 votes, so there'll probably be more this year. No on 1 has identified 80k voters with 2 months to to, and one month before canvassing for early votes.

I really can't comment on yes on 1's campaign, to be honest. They're not sharing anything. All I know is they're casting an ad on Craigslist, looking for two "real Maine women" but not saying what the ad is about, and blaming Maine's bad weather on the gays. That's all I know about them. They're not even publicly saying where their main office is, but the No on 1 campaign has opened public offices all over the state in the past month.

[Holmes]

They've surely demonstrated that they can hire a signature gathering firm from Michigan and a campaign director from California, based in DC, who pay signature gatherers $2 for every signature they get. Not every signature is a committed voter.

Look at the public hearing back in April. The no side was able to get about 3000 supporters to dress in red and attend, and the yes wasn't able to get 1000. The no side was able to send tens of thousands of letters to governor Baldacci to help him sign it, the yes side, not so much.

[Holmes]

Apparently I missed this, No on 1 released two TV ads today, not just one. Here is the second one:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZfEfN1ifdA

It's good ad, but I prefer the first. He doesn't say to vote no, you just see the logo. And when no means yes, it's important.

[Holmes]

They've surely demonstrated that they can hire a signature gathering firm from Michigan and a campaign director from California, based in DC, who pay signature gatherers $2 for every signature they get. Not every signature is a committed voter.

Look at the public hearing back in April. The no side was able to get about 3000 supporters to dress in red and attend, and the yes wasn't able to get 1000. The no side was able to send tens of thousands of letters to governor Baldacci to help him sign it, the yes side, not so much.

lol ok so everyone who opposes gay "marriage" is obviously just a hired stooge. Yeah, you fit in well with Nancy Pelosi, just dismiss the people, it can't be true, they're just "astroturf."

http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2009/06/18-7

Look up "National Petition Management Inc". I don't make sh**t up.

http://www.aboutnpm.com/

5281 River Ridge Dr
Brighton, MI 48116-4791, United States

[Holmes]

Both Senators are against the repeal.

Source? All I can find is Collins saying she'll stay neutral like she always does for statewide issues.

Speaking of Peter Mills - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K60a6kjzpfI

[Holmes]

http://www.wgme.com/template/inews_wire/wires.regional.me/21c0eee8-www.wgme.com.shtml

Mmm, church influence.

[Holmes]

Yes on 1 = . Holding a rally tomorrow night at the Augusta Civic Center... but not letting anyone go, banning media coverage and having mostly all out-of-state speakers.

No on 1 wins again.

The NO on 1/Protect Maine Equality campaign today challenged its opponents to allow the media into their Augusta rally tomorrow featuring several out-of-state, headline speakers opposed to marriage equality.  At the same time, NO on 1 announced that it will hold a series of "community conversations" around the state to engage Mainers on this important question of fairness and equality.

    "The contrast could not be clearer," said NO on 1 campaign manager Jesse Connolly.  "While our opponents have speakers flown in from San Diego and Washington, DC to speak out against loving Maine couples and families, we're having real conversations, Mainer to Mainer, about the importance of marriage equality."

The opposition rally at the Augusta Civic Center features Tony Perkins, the president of the Family Research Council, Harry Jackson, Jr., of Hope Christian Church in Washington, D.C., Chris Clark from East Clairemont Baptist Church in San Diego, and a special message from James Dobson of Focus on the Family, based in Colorado Springs.  The ticketed event is closed to the press.

While the opponents' rally at the Augusta Civic Center will be closed to the media and people without tickets, NO on 1's Augusta "community conversation," the first in a statewide series, will be open to the general public and the media.  That conversation is happening tomorrow, Sunday, September 13th from 6:30 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. at South Parish Congregational Church, 9 Church Street, Augusta.

    "It makes no sense to hold a big rally and then deny access to the general public and ban coverage of the event by the Maine media," said Connolly.  "If the organizers really want to show people that they are not alone, why would they close the doors to the general public, to television news viewers and to Maine newspaper readers?"

[Holmes]

Ad - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZaRNzlwc7Sk

Focus on The Family, the Christian Civic League, NOM, or the Portland Diocese are definitely not special interest groups. At least our special interest groups were from Maine, and even had the word "Maine" in their names.

Also their logo looks a lot like prop 8's. Hamasecsuel marige will be teached in schools. Consequences consequences. There will be lawsuits everywhere. Mmhmm.

And I see no real Maine waitresses and teachers.

[Holmes]

That AP story that the ad showed? It wasn't even a story headline that AP wrote... I hope they get bitchy about it and sue for misrepresentation.

Radio ad - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_fJRFXjjQH0

Sounds like Microsoft Sam, and they made the legislators look evil(liberal). It's funny.

[Holmes]

No on 1's counter-ad, going on air tonight.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Gm7HvaCW2k

Ah, ad war begins...

[Markos is polling Maine right now btw... aside from this I don't know what he can really be polling, but ok]

[Holmes]

Yeah, I suppose so. Speaking of governor's race, in case anyone(Dan the Roman) cares, some Democratic candidates made their stance on Question 1 public recently(via Dirigo Blue). We know Mills is voting no, and so is Rowe.

Elizabeth Libby Mitchell:

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Rosa Scarcelli:

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Steve Rowe from his site:

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[Holmes]

This definitely looks winnable. I know cross tabs have high MoE, but what's sad is the low support among Democrats. But it's good to see no is apparently winning independents.

Landline-only, if anyone cares... no cellphone-only residents interviewed.

[Holmes]

It's ok. Last year, Palin was the most popular politician in the country last week. There are over 50 days until election day, the peak of the campaign hasn't even begun yet. But yes on 1 is doing a crappy job, in my opinion... compared to yes on 8. And no on 1 is doing waaay better compared to no on 8. This is a fun campaign to follow.

That rally that the media wasn't invited to the other week, WGME got in and brought a camera.
 
http://www.wgme.com/newsroom/top_stories/videos/wgme_vid_632.shtml

Eh... "history is on our side", "we're prosecuted for our beliefs", blah blah. Crowd looked unenthusiastic in the clips they showed. And of course, the Bishop has to make a speech.

[Holmes]

Of course it sucks that it's going to a vote, but you knew it was coming up. The other side would do anything they can to stop progress. I survived prop 8 last year, and we had marriage there. I'm not gonna feel bad for myself anymore because I know it's a waste of energy. The no on 8 side was so terrible and slow, and the yes on 8 side was really deceitful, I'm just glad we're doing well this time.

[Holmes]

WMTW tears into Yes on 1's TV ad. They smacked down the marriage in schools myth, and so did the Yes on 1 side! No on 1 had a law professor from Maine making their rebuttals.

First No on 1 Radio Ad. It's basically just sound clips from their TV ads. That's ridiculous!

Same-sex unions will only enhance the traditions of marriage
Same-sex couples are families, too
Congregation stands up for same-sex marriage

[Holmes]

http://www.baywindows.com/index.php?ch=news&sc=glbt&sc2=news&sc3=&id=96623

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Here is No on 1's press release about their endorsement from the Maine Chapter of the American Academy of Pediatricians

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[Holmes]

Mmm, recycling.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FijVUbUlV3s

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7352ZVMKBQM

 this sh**t. Bad memories.

That teacher is a member of the SFMM group... teaches at a private Christian school.

[Holmes]

Two new No on 1 ads:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3s3FURNG2wA

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3QLirv1-vBY

I wish they would get the teachers to actually say "no on 1"...

[Holmes]

http://www.democracycorps.com/wp-content/files/mesw092709fq1me.pdf

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This is better than the kos poll, in my opinion, because kos didn't include the fact that churches aren't forced to do anything, and this one says it. So yay, 9 point lead. But that doesn't mean anything unless we can get that 50% to the polls.