President Al Gore-Brand Spanin' New Timeline!

[hcallega]

Hey folks! I'm back to take another shot at a timeline. This one is going to be a fairly short one, since it starts in 2001. Basically I'm going to go year-by-year and attempt to provide some nice detail into the most recent what-if (that is with a clear POD rather than simply a GPORTER one): What-If the Supreme Court had allowed the Florida Recount to continue, and what-if Al Gore had ended up on top in the final vote count?
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President Al Gore

[/b]

2001

On December 9th, 2000, the United States Supreme Court ruled 5-4 in favor of Vice-President Al Gore to allow for the continuance of the Florida Recount in the case of the 2000 Presidential Election. On December 20th, the results would become public that with all votes counted, Mr. Gore had narrowly captured the state of Florida and therefore the White House. It would go down as one of the closest elections in US history, as well as one of the most controversial. Governor George W. Bush of Texas would offer his congratulations to the President-Elect and address the nation on Christmas Eve: "This is a very spiritual and holy time of year for all Americans, and therefore it is clear that there is no reason to drag out a long and contentious battle for the Presidency. The American People have spoken, both in the Popular Vote and in the Electoral College and Vice-President Gore is now the next President of the United States. I have congratulated him and am looking forward to working with him to create a better America for ours and future generations. Good night, and may God Bless America."

However many others were not so willing to put the issue to rest. Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich (R-GA) was one of the most vocal, calling the Supreme Courts decision "A clear case of the courts trying to control state policy. Rather than allowing the state of Florida to run their own elections in a legal and civil manner, they chose to intervene time after time, most notably in the highest court in the land." Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris would also criticize the court's ruling, calling it "a sham" and "a travesty". Many Americans would also agree, as the new President's approval ratings would hover in the mid-50s at the time of his inauguration.

The new Presidents inauguration was one of an emphasis on hope for the future and new century: "Today we step forward into a new generation, as we as Americans have a profoundly unique opportunity to create a better future, and a better century.  But we cannot and we must not simply assume that we will be great. We must push forward with the strength and will that America has shown when faced with great adversity, even though we are faced with prosperity, because the only way to guarantee greatness is by striving for greatness."

Gore's first major focus was on the economy, as many indicators were pointing towards an upcoming recession. Gore would push for a budget that would include increases in "stimulus spending" as well as increased domestic spending. Gore also included middle-class tax cuts and a retention of the Clinton level taxes on the wealthy and big business. Gore also proposed a climate change bill that would "put the United States in line with the Kyoto Protocol, without us having to run up against the developing world." The initial plan included the creation of a "cap-and-trade" plan which would essentially regulate emissions but also provide a system to reward "good" companies that had low emissions. However in committee many of the bills provisions would be stripped, essentially leaving a bill that would gave tax breaks to companies with emissions below a certain level while leveling a tax on those who went over a certain amount. Nonetheless Gore would call the bill "a good first step towards substantial climate change legislation."

Gore would also open up new lines for embryonic stem cell research and push for major education reform that he would label "America's Future Education Act" which put a large emphasis on test scores but also created a system of "Robin Hood" education where property taxes were leveled on school districts in wealthier districts and the money sent to poorer districts. The bill came up as a 50-50 tie in the senate after narrowly passing in the house, and VP Lieberman would cast the tie breaking vote in favor. Conservatives would chide the bill as "an attempt to center the argument on money, when the real factor is teacher competence and a solid family backing" (Bill Buckley).

The defining moment of President Gore's first year in office was the September 11th terrorist attacks. Despite a shift in focus towards anti-terrorism, four planes were hijacked on by terrorists from the Al-Queada terrorist group. Two of the planes were flown into the World Trade Center in New York, while another crashed into the side of the Pentagon. A third plane was hijacked but was shot down by order of the President over Pennsylvania. The rationale for the decision was that "all evidence pointed to the very real possibility that Flight 93 was indeed aiming for the White House." Gore would receive criticism for "the unprecedented act of killing innocent civilians to prevent a PR disaster" (Howard Zinn) from both sides of the aisle. 9/11 would be a crucial moment in US foreign policy, as it President Gore would "Call on all free peoples in this world to stand up to fear, terror, and murder and rally behind liberty, freedom and peace." The President would tour the country in the following months speaking to crowds about the importance "of staying the course at home, for if we allow the terrorists to change our way of life, than they have won the ultimate victory." Many conservatives attacked Gore for not being aggressive enough and not "striking with the force needed to bring down Al-Quaeda once and for all!" (Tom DeLay). Nonetheless, the Presidents approval ratings hovered around 60% as his first year came to a close, with many prepared for a global War on Terror in 2002.

Al Gore's Cabinet

President: Al Gore
Vice-President: Joe Lieberman
Secretary of State: Richard Holbrooke
Secretary of the Treasury: Mary Ellen Withrow
Secretary of Defense: Colin Powell
Attorney General: Jamie Gorelick
Secretary of the Interior: Robert Kennedy Jr.
Secretary of Agriculture: Charlie Stenholm
Secretary of Commerce: Alexis Herman
Secretary of Labor: Linda Chavez-Thompson
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Jeanne Shaheen
Secretary of Transportation: Jane Garvey
Secretary of Energy: Martin Meehan
Secretary of Education: Jim Hunt
Secretary of Veterans Affairs: Max Cleland
White House Chief of Staff: Bill Daley
National Security Adviser: Anthony Zinni

[President Mitt]

A Good Start, but is there a reason its posted twice under different titles.

[JerryBrown2010]

My dream time line

[hcallega]

A Good Start, but is there a reason its posted twice under different titles.

I got an error message and so I thought it didn't post at first

[Historico]

When I fist saw this thread title HC, I had got excited that someone was actually doing an Al Gore wins in 1988 Scenario? But this seems pretty intriguing, and Can't wait to see how President Gore handles the War on Terror...Keep it comming HC

[hcallega]

When I fist saw this thread title HC, I had got excited that someone was actually doing an Al Gore wins in 1988 Scenario? But this seems pretty intriguing, and Can't wait to see how President Gore handles the War on Terror...Keep it comming HC

That would be pretty interesting, but I'm not a fan of Gore to start with so the potential of a double-dose of Fat Al is a little too much for me!

[hcallega]

2002

The focus of President Gore's second year in office was foreign policy and, more specifically, the war on terror. On January 1st 2002, US Army Rangers and members of the 82nd and 101st Airborne divisions seized key airbases across Afganistan. At the same time the Northern Alliance launched a major offensive out of their bases against Taliban forces. Also, US bombers struck Taliban military structures across the country. This policy of "Shock and Awe" was intended to cripple the Taliban and Al-Queada forces before they could respond to the assault. In the ensuing days and weeks Northern Alliance forces would push forward against the Taliban successful due in great part to US Air Support. In the rest of the country, more and more US forces landed at the air bases and began to push out against the fairly weak opposition. By mid-February Northern Alliance forces were at the gates of Kabul while US forces pushed on towards the Pakistan border and the Al-Queada forces there.

At home the President received criticism from conservatives on two fronts. On the one hand there were those like Texas Governor George Bush who branded the war as "nation building, rather than terror fighting." Others, such as Senate Minority Leader Trent Lott criticized Gore for "allowing a golden opportunity to slip through our grasp. We have an opportunity to convert an oppressive and authoritarian regime to a free one, and yet we have let an equally oppressive "ally" take power."

Back in Afghanistan, Kabul would fall to the Alliance forces on March 2nd after a prolonged siege that resulted in high civilian casualties. The Alliance would appoint leader Mohammad Fahim as President, and received tacit American support. Meanwhile, US forces surrounded the remaining Al-Queada and Taliban military forces inside the mountains of Tora Bora. Here, US artillery and air power bombarded the mountains hoping to "send them back to the stone age." (General Tommy Franks). As the bombardment continued, ground forces would push into the region, but met severe resistance as the fight became a long and drawn out war of attrition. Even attempts by the Special Forces to assassinate key Al-Quaeda leaders were unsuccessful and casualties were beginning to mount.

At home the economy began to head into a recession and the President's approval ratings began to slip into the low-50s. More concerns began to rise about global terrorism as well, along with fears of the possibility of domestic terrorism. Due to these fears, President Gore would propose the "2002 Domestic Terrorism Prevention Act" which would mandate increased airport, port, and government office security while also giving the government greater power to spy on potential domestic threats. This bill also expanded on bio-terrorism prevention in the wake of the anthrax scare. Another major scare was how Afghanistan was beginning to fall into an authoritarian state, and how pockets of Taliban resistance throughout the country began to increase, even with the prescience of an international peace-keeping force in April. Finally, the President would also pass an economic stimulus bill in October that offered tax-incentives to small businesses and increased spending on public works projects. Nonetheless, heading into the November mid-term elections the Presidents approval rating was only at 50%.

[hcallega]

2002 Midterm Elections

In the House, the Republicans made slight gains due to the President's mixed popularity, but were unable to make the same strides that they did in 1994 (the last time they faced a Democrat after his first two years as President). Some of the closest races were in Georgia, Alabama, Colorado, Florida and Pennsylvania. A key factor in the races were Al Gore and Joe Lieberman personally campaigning in many states. A memorable moment in the race came when Gore traveled to Florida's 5th District to campaign on the behalf of embattled incumbent Karen Thurman: "Two years ago Florida voters just like you helped elect me President of the United States. This race is sure to be just as exciting, but with your help it doesn't need to be as close." Thurman would end up winning by a very narrow margin. Overall the House was divided 225-208-1 with a Republican Majority.

In the Senate the battle for control was key, as the Republicans only needed to gain one seat to gain a majority, while the Democrats hoped to actually gain a cushion (John Larson had defeated Lt. Governor Kevin Sullivan in Connecticut for Lieberman's old seat).

Key Races

Arkansas

Incumbent Republican Senator Tim Hutchinson's popularity had sapped since his divorce of his wife for a much younger woman. Also, Arkansas's state Democratic party had always been strong and therefore Hutchinson was always going to have a difficult battle. This was compounded with the nomination of Attorney General Mark Pryor, whose father had held the seat before Hutchinson. His moderate views and social conservatism were enough for him to defeat Hutchinson, 53-47.

Louisiana

Senator Mary Landrieu was a top target for the GOP for the senate in 2002. Louisiana had a strong Democratic party, but was quite conservative and had voted for George Bush in 2000. Landrieu had a moderate voting record but was pro-choice and supportive of many of Al Gore's policies. In the jungle primary, three Republicans ran to split the vote and prevent Landrieu from reaching 50%. In the Runoff in December, Republican Suzanne Haik Terrell would narrowly defeat Landrieu, in great part due to support from Democratic leaning Cajun Country and focusing on social issues. The final vote tally was 50.3-49.7

Missouri

Following the embarrassing defeat of John Ashcroft to the deceased Mel Carnahan, the Republican party geared up for a tough run against his replacement and wife Jean. Conservative Republican Jim Talent was the GOP nominee and polled well going into the home stretch. However it was the economy which ended up being the deciding factor as Carnahan was able to emphasize the "importance of protecting our middle class. I voted for the stimulus and the Gore tax cuts, while supporting fair trade measures that expand the economy while protecting American jobs. Jim Talent has done none of those things, and has consistently supported big business over the American People." Another key factor was the campaigning of Joe Lieberman who emphasized Carnahan's "Faith in what works for America and the American People." In the end, Carnahan would win 49-48

Minnesota

In what looked like a close race to begin with, the Minnesota Senate race took an unexpected turn with the death of Senator Paul Wellstone in a plane crash. With the Democrats scrambling to recover, Ambassador, former Senator and former VP Walter Mondale was chosen. While Polls showed a dead heat, "pitty points" were scored after President Gore's empashioned speech at Wellstone's funeral: "I served with Paul, and he was an American hero. There is absolutely no man who I would rather have standing beside me than him, and I have always believed that he was the voice for all that is good about progressive leadership. May his soul rest in peace and may he find true comfort in heaven." Mondale would narrowly defeat Coleman by a margin of 49-48.

South Dakota

South Dakota was another opputunity for the GOP, as incumbent Senator Tim Johnson was considered a weak candidate. Representative John Thune was the GOP nominee and campaigned hard on conservative values and his opposition to Gore's "Misleading tax and spend policies that are portrayed by the liberal media as "centrist"". Thune would receive a great deal of support from the national GOP, and would narrowly defeat Johnson 50-49

Other key races took place in Colorado (where Wayne Allard won after trailing in the summer polling), New Jersey (where the GOP was unable to win even with corruption charges against the Democrats), and Georgia (where appointed Senator Zell Miller defeated Saxby Chambliss despite the conservative nature of the state). Overall, the balance of the Senate was 51-49 GOP majority, meaning that little had really changed.

[Historico]

Lol, I love the Al Gore Vampire picture(I so have to get that on a T-Shirt)...Can't wait to see what happens in the 2004 Election...My money is on Governor Bill Owens of Colorado.

[pragmatic liberal]

2002 Midterm Elections

In the House, the Republicans made slight gains due to the President's mixed popularity, but were unable to make the same strides that they did in 1994 (the last time they faced a Democrat after his first two years as President). Some of the closest races were in Georgia, Alabama, Colorado, Florida and Pennsylvania. A key factor in the races were Al Gore and Joe Lieberman personally campaigning in many states. A memorable moment in the race came when Gore traveled to Florida's 5th District to campaign on the behalf of embattled incumbent Karen Thurman: "Two years ago Florida voters just like you helped elect me President of the United States. This race is sure to be just as exciting, but with your help it doesn't need to be as close." Thurman would end up winning by a very narrow margin. Overall the House was divided 225-208-1 with a Republican Majority.

In the Senate the battle for control was key, as the Republicans only needed to gain one seat to gain a majority, while the Democrats hoped to actually gain a cushion (John Larson had defeated Lt. Governor Kevin Sullivan in Connecticut for Lieberman's old seat).

Key Races

Arkansas

Incumbent Republican Senator Tim Hutchinson's popularity had sapped since his divorce of his wife for a much younger woman. Also, Arkansas's state Democratic party had always been strong and therefore Hutchinson was always going to have a difficult battle. This was compounded with the nomination of Attorney General Mark Pryor, whose father had held the seat before Hutchinson. His moderate views and social conservatism were enough for him to defeat Hutchinson, 53-47.

Louisiana

Senator Mary Landrieu was a top target for the GOP for the senate in 2002. Louisiana had a strong Democratic party, but was quite conservative and had voted for George Bush in 2000. Landrieu had a moderate voting record but was pro-choice and supportive of many of Al Gore's policies. In the jungle primary, three Republicans ran to split the vote and prevent Landrieu from reaching 50%. In the Runoff in December, Republican Suzanne Haik Terrell would narrowly defeat Landrieu, in great part due to support from Democratic leaning Cajun Country and focusing on social issues. The final vote tally was 50.3-49.7

Missouri

Following the embarrassing defeat of John Ashcroft to the deceased Mel Carnahan, the Republican party geared up for a tough run against his replacement and wife Jean. Conservative Republican Jim Talent was the GOP nominee and polled well going into the home stretch. However it was the economy which ended up being the deciding factor as Carnahan was able to emphasize the "importance of protecting our middle class. I voted for the stimulus and the Gore tax cuts, while supporting fair trade measures that expand the economy while protecting American jobs. Jim Talent has done none of those things, and has consistently supported big business over the American People." Another key factor was the campaigning of Joe Lieberman who emphasized Carnahan's "Faith in what works for America and the American People." In the end, Carnahan would win 49-48

Minnesota

In what looked like a close race to begin with, the Minnesota Senate race took an unexpected turn with the death of Senator Paul Wellstone in a plane crash. With the Democrats scrambling to recover, Ambassador, former Senator and former VP Walter Mondale was chosen. While Polls showed a dead heat, "pitty points" were scored after President Gore's empashioned speech at Wellstone's funeral: "I served with Paul, and he was an American hero. There is absolutely no man who I would rather have standing beside me than him, and I have always believed that he was the voice for all that is good about progressive leadership. May his soul rest in peace and may he find true comfort in heaven." Mondale would narrowly defeat Coleman by a margin of 49-48.

South Dakota

South Dakota was another opputunity for the GOP, as incumbent Senator Tim Johnson was considered a weak candidate. Representative John Thune was the GOP nominee and campaigned hard on conservative values and his opposition to Gore's "Misleading tax and spend policies that are portrayed by the liberal media as "centrist"". Thune would receive a great deal of support from the national GOP, and would narrowly defeat Johnson 50-49

Other key races took place in Colorado (where Wayne Allard won after trailing in the summer polling), New Jersey (where the GOP was unable to win even with corruption charges against the Democrats), and Georgia (where appointed Senator Zell Miller defeated Saxby Chambliss despite the conservative nature of the state). Overall, the balance of the Senate was 51-49 GOP majority, meaning that little had really changed.

Chambliss defeated CLELAND, not Zell Miller, who simply retired in 2004.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Yay, Walter is back

[hcallega]

2002 Midterm Elections

In the House, the Republicans made slight gains due to the President's mixed popularity, but were unable to make the same strides that they did in 1994 (the last time they faced a Democrat after his first two years as President). Some of the closest races were in Georgia, Alabama, Colorado, Florida and Pennsylvania. A key factor in the races were Al Gore and Joe Lieberman personally campaigning in many states. A memorable moment in the race came when Gore traveled to Florida's 5th District to campaign on the behalf of embattled incumbent Karen Thurman: "Two years ago Florida voters just like you helped elect me President of the United States. This race is sure to be just as exciting, but with your help it doesn't need to be as close." Thurman would end up winning by a very narrow margin. Overall the House was divided 225-208-1 with a Republican Majority.

In the Senate the battle for control was key, as the Republicans only needed to gain one seat to gain a majority, while the Democrats hoped to actually gain a cushion (John Larson had defeated Lt. Governor Kevin Sullivan in Connecticut for Lieberman's old seat).

Key Races

Arkansas

Incumbent Republican Senator Tim Hutchinson's popularity had sapped since his divorce of his wife for a much younger woman. Also, Arkansas's state Democratic party had always been strong and therefore Hutchinson was always going to have a difficult battle. This was compounded with the nomination of Attorney General Mark Pryor, whose father had held the seat before Hutchinson. His moderate views and social conservatism were enough for him to defeat Hutchinson, 53-47.

Louisiana

Senator Mary Landrieu was a top target for the GOP for the senate in 2002. Louisiana had a strong Democratic party, but was quite conservative and had voted for George Bush in 2000. Landrieu had a moderate voting record but was pro-choice and supportive of many of Al Gore's policies. In the jungle primary, three Republicans ran to split the vote and prevent Landrieu from reaching 50%. In the Runoff in December, Republican Suzanne Haik Terrell would narrowly defeat Landrieu, in great part due to support from Democratic leaning Cajun Country and focusing on social issues. The final vote tally was 50.3-49.7

Missouri

Following the embarrassing defeat of John Ashcroft to the deceased Mel Carnahan, the Republican party geared up for a tough run against his replacement and wife Jean. Conservative Republican Jim Talent was the GOP nominee and polled well going into the home stretch. However it was the economy which ended up being the deciding factor as Carnahan was able to emphasize the "importance of protecting our middle class. I voted for the stimulus and the Gore tax cuts, while supporting fair trade measures that expand the economy while protecting American jobs. Jim Talent has done none of those things, and has consistently supported big business over the American People." Another key factor was the campaigning of Joe Lieberman who emphasized Carnahan's "Faith in what works for America and the American People." In the end, Carnahan would win 49-48

Minnesota

In what looked like a close race to begin with, the Minnesota Senate race took an unexpected turn with the death of Senator Paul Wellstone in a plane crash. With the Democrats scrambling to recover, Ambassador, former Senator and former VP Walter Mondale was chosen. While Polls showed a dead heat, "pitty points" were scored after President Gore's empashioned speech at Wellstone's funeral: "I served with Paul, and he was an American hero. There is absolutely no man who I would rather have standing beside me than him, and I have always believed that he was the voice for all that is good about progressive leadership. May his soul rest in peace and may he find true comfort in heaven." Mondale would narrowly defeat Coleman by a margin of 49-48.

South Dakota

South Dakota was another opputunity for the GOP, as incumbent Senator Tim Johnson was considered a weak candidate. Representative John Thune was the GOP nominee and campaigned hard on conservative values and his opposition to Gore's "Misleading tax and spend policies that are portrayed by the liberal media as "centrist"". Thune would receive a great deal of support from the national GOP, and would narrowly defeat Johnson 50-49

Other key races took place in Colorado (where Wayne Allard won after trailing in the summer polling), New Jersey (where the GOP was unable to win even with corruption charges against the Democrats), and Georgia (where appointed Senator Zell Miller defeated Saxby Chambliss despite the conservative nature of the state). Overall, the balance of the Senate was 51-49 GOP majority, meaning that little had really changed.

Chambliss defeated CLELAND, not Zell Miller, who simply retired in 2004.

Way not to read the timeline buddy. Cleland took the post of Secretary of Veterans Affairs, after which Governor Barnes appointed Zell.

[pragmatic liberal]

Way not to read the timeline buddy. Cleland took the post of Secretary of Veterans Affairs, after which Governor Barnes appointed Zell.

I missed that, but it still doesn't fit. You start your timeline at December 2000. Zell Miller was appointed to the Senate in the summer of 2000 when Sen. Paul Coverdell (R) died. I didn't see anything about Sen. Coverdell not dying in your alternate timeline.

[hcallega]

Way not to read the timeline buddy. Cleland took the post of Secretary of Veterans Affairs, after which Governor Barnes appointed Zell.

I missed that, but it still doesn't fit. You start your timeline at December 2000. Zell Miller was appointed to the Senate in the summer of 2000 when Sen. Paul Coverdell (R) died. I didn't see anything about Sen. Coverdell not dying in your alternate timeline.

Now I feel like an idiot. Allright, how about I go with another former GA governor, Joe Frank Harris, who wins reelection pledging to retire in 2008. That also sets up an exciting showdown! Also, I'm sorry for being condescending.

[hcallega]

2003

Edit: In 2002 Gore signed the Sarbanes-Oxley Act in response to the Enron crisis and denounced Ken Lay and others involved as "Some of the worst crooks in the history of America"

The focus on 2003 for the most part was still on the war on terror. In Afghanistan the battle in Tora Bora had turn into a war of attrition along the mountains along the border with Pakistan. Throughout the country there were more and more Taliban uprisings, leading to a much larger conflict. Also there were now protests by liberals against the conservative regime and in favor of liberalization and freer elections. Many in America began to see the conflict as a quagmire, though most Americans still supported the goal of the conflict and bringing Bin-Laden to justice (even though many also believed that Bin-Laden had already been killed in the conflict).

At home however there were more and more rumblings from the GOP congress. Some opponents of the President began to attack his foreign policy, primarily his inaction against Iraq. Senator John Cornyn of Texas called Iraq "The next battlefield in the War on Terror. Sadam Hussein's regime posses a much larger threat to the Middle East than any singular terrorist organization. It's a shame the President doesn't seem to understand that." While this issue was still relatively minor in 2003, it would become much larger in 2004.

In regards to domestic issues, the President continued his generally liberal approach. Recognizing that he couldn't pass universal health care reform, Gore chose to tackle the issue of medicare and medicaid. His reforms would "make it easier for Senior citizens and the disabled to understand what they're entitled too, as well as lowering costs." The bill itself permitted the government to negotiate with prescription drug companies as well as import drugs from Canada. The reform would be the toughest fight of the President's so far, as most of the summer was spent in a showdown between Republicans and Democrats over the reform: "We cannot let the Government invade the Private Sector! And as Majority Leader I promise you I will not let them pile on the paper work for senior citizens!" (Tom DeLay) "This bill is absolutely necessary if we want to see drug prices go down. If we don't pass this bill than we will see more and more seniors fall into poverty." (Dick Gephardt). In the house the bill would narrowly pass due in large part to strong support from many moderate and liberal Republicans. In the Senate the Bill would pass 56-44 with many moderate Republicans joining the President and a united Democratic Party.

The President would be defeated on several key issues however. Gore would fail in his attempt to pass "The New Millennium Regulatory Act" which was intended as a long term response to the Enron scandal. However many moderate Democrats opposed the bill which failed in the house primarily due to the fact that "We're in a recession after all. I just can't support a bill which makes it harder for the economy to grow when we really need it to the most." (Jim Matheson). Another defeat for the President would come on the front of abortion, as the Senate and House would pass the Partial Birth Abortion Ban Act of 2003 over his veto pen 62-38. As 2003 came to an end, the President's support continued to wane, and the prospect of a long term engagement in Afghanistan and the possibility of a serious recession in the future continued to make storm clouds rise.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I don't think there would be an earlier 50-50 tie in Senate. Lieberman had to resign in order to became Vice President and Governor Rowland would surely appoint a fellow Republican

[hcallega]

I don't think there would be an earlier 50-50 tie in Senate. Lieberman had to resign in order to became Vice President and Governor Rowland would surely appoint a fellow Republican

True, but in the special election John Larson would win so as for now the numbers are correct.

[hcallega]

2004

2004 was a year centered around the Presidential election, but that was not to say that other events did not occur that made the year exciting. Entering the year Gore's approval ratings were around 50-52% with the lowest a 48% Gallup rating in mid-January when economic indicators showed that 2004 might be the year when the economy really took the plunge. Nonetheless Gore was still viewed by many as "Highly Presidential" in his handling of the War on Terror and the War in Afghanistan.


Gore's major focus in 2004 was domestic, as Afghanistan became more and more of a quagmire and the economy began to slide. Signing two free trade agreements (one with Morocco, one with Australia) Gore chose to emphasize his centrist roots while also heading off any potential conservative criticism of being tied up by labor. Gore also made several speeches in focusing on pursuing "A radical new thinking: a sweeping fair trade deal with Latin America that may finally lift the region out of poverty forever." Gore emphasized that the deal would not cost US jobs, and he toured several auto plants to drive the point home. He also chose to emphasize his support for immigration and health care reform, if he would be reelected.

The biggest issue of 2004 however was Iraq. Saddam Hussein had often spoken well of Al-Quaeda, praising it as "the one group who could bring down the USA". Iraq also began to posture as the dominant power in the Middle East and many believe that they were developing nuclear and chemical weapons. The issue came to a head when Vice-President Joe Lieberman was asked how he would handle the Iraq Issue at a Jewish Fundraiser: "Well I'll tell you right now that I would take a very hard stance against them. Iraq has always been the greatest enemy of free nations, namely Israel and the United States because of many reasons. They've funded and supplied every nation who has attacked Israel and I personally believe that they trained and supported Al-Qaueda, possibly even the same people who hijacked the planes that flew into the World Trade center. I'm not surprised that they're developing nukes or chemical weapons and I would strongly consider deposing of Saddam, if I was in the position to do so."

Liberman's statement soon became cannon-fodder for the GOP and a major case of foot-in-mouth for the Democrats. Republicans such as Rick Santorum and Tom DeLay praised Lieberman for "being open about what's so obvious: Iraq is the biggest threat to US national security in the world and we need to do something about it before it's too late" (Santorum). Lieberman would offer an apology to the President and would hit the Sunday talk shows to retract his statement, but the damage was already done. A poll taken shortly after Lieberman's gaffe showed that 40% of Americans would support invading Iraq if they had WMDs, while 20% opposed invading in all circumstances, 10% were undecided. 10% supported invading if there was evidence that they funded Al-Quaeda, and the other 10% supporting invasion for any reason. It was clear that Iraq was going to be a big issue for the Presidential election!

[hcallega]

2004 Republican Primaries

[/b]

   The 2000 Election had been a heartbreaker for Republicans. Despite polls that routinely showed that more Americans liked Governor George Bush on a personal level, as well as the fact that Vice-President Gore was neither a favorite of his party’s base or independents, Gore had still carried both the national popular and electoral vote. The biggest question going into the 2004 elections is who would carry the GOP banner against the oft-maligned incumbent.

   Republican leaders first looked to several big names popular with independents and Democrats. Secretary of Defense Colin Powell was a popular pick and polled well in matchups against Gore, but declined to run as “I’m not going to abandon my President during war time. That would be irresponsible and dangerous, no matter my views on any other issue.” Other candidates who declined to run were former Missouri Senator John Danforth (a critic of Gore “irresponsible” foreign policy), Governor Tom Ridge of Pennsylvania (a popular among moderates), and Senator Chuck Hagel (a favorite of fiscal conservatives). Governor Bush also declined to run a second time, stating that “one taste of Washington politics was more than enough.”

   In fact the first candidate to declare his candidacy was a big name with little national support: 2000 Reform Party nominee Pat Buchanan. Buchanan returned to the GOP fold due to “the outstandingly awful first term of President Gore. I can’t sit on the sidelines and shout platitudes. I need to work with the party that I was raised in.” Buchanan’s campaign focused on a greater focus on isolationism and improving the US military rather than “stretching it far and wide in search of one man.” On social and domestic issues Buchanan took a conservative line, opposing abortion and stem cell research while supporting lower taxes and deregulation of industry.

   The next major candidate to declare for the race was former Senator Fred Thompson of Tennessee. A favorite of both social conservatives and the southern wing of the party, Thompson quickly jumped up the polls. But his lackluster campaigning style and lack of knowledge on the issues hurt him greatly once the campaign season kicked off. Thomson was followed by another Thompson, Tommy of Wisconsin who focused on foreign policy and emphasized his moderate record. Other candidates to declare were conservative Virginia Senator George Allen and anti-abortion Senator Sam Brownback.

   The last two candidates to declare for the race were some of the most important. One was Governor Bill Owens of Colorado. Owens was a grassroots favorite and early on positioned himself as at odds with the President “on almost every important issue.” The other late entry was Senator John McCain of Arizona who had led the field in polling in every poll since Election Day 2000. However McCain had struggled to pick up fundraising and it was Owens who would jump out to an early lead in this key category due in large part to many business endorsements. Heading into the Iowa Caucuses the field stood as follows (listed in order of support)
•   Senator John McCain of Arizona
•   Former Senator Fred Thompson of Tennessee
•   Governor Bill Owens of Colorado
•   Senator George Allen of Virginia
•   Former Governor Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin
•   Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas
•   Conservative Activist Pat Buchanan of Virginia

The strong GOP field looked quite deep going into the primaries, but one of the bigger problems was the possibility of a long and drawn out primary battle between two or more candidates. Therefore the first races would be key in sorting out the field.
The first contest was in Iowa. Here many expected Senator McCain to fair poorly, as his views did not match up well with the states. However most expected him to finish second, due in large part to his national support and his key place as frontrunner. In reality though, Iowa would be a major stumbling block for the Senator, as he would finish in third place behind both Owens and Allen. Owens had been expected to win, but few thought of Allen (who had only been in the Senate for less than four years) as a potential heavyweight. But due in large part to strong support from evangelicals, the Virginia Senator would upset his colleague from Arizona. In fact McCain would only finish 3 points ahead of neighboring pol Tommy Thompson. Fred Thompson would finish in a disappointing fifth, while Brownback and Buchanan would round out the field. With his bad showing and lack of money, Brownback would withdraw from the race.

National polls showed that the race was starting to shift, as Owens was now within striking distance of McCain while Allen had overtaken Thompson in third. The polls in New Hampshire showed a substantial McCain lead however, which gave him hope that he could indeed put the race away before Super Tuesday. In this case the polls were correct, as McCain would win by 8 points over Allen, with Owens in third (he had written off the state and had shifted much of his support to South Carolina), Fred in fourth, Tommy in fifth, and Buchanan in sixth.
The Palmetto State would be crucial for several of the candidates. For Fred Thompson it was of utmost importance as with another defeat here he would be out of the running. For Allen it would be an opportunity to climb into the top rung of the field with McCain and Owens, and for the two frontrunners it would be an opportunity for one or the other to sit on top. The polls showed a narrow Thompson lead, but the race was anybody’s game as McCain vowed not to let what happened in 2000 happen again. In the final results, Owens would surprise the field, with McCain in third. Allen would finish in fourth (hurting him substantially), and Thompson would finish in second. Despite this strong showing, the actor turned politician turned actor again, would withdraw from the race, stating that “there just isn’t enough support for my candidacy to win. I wish I could tell you all something different.” Tommy Thompson would also withdraw from the race citing a lack of money.

Therefore, the race was now between McCain and Owens (now in a dead heat), with Allen in third and Buchanan far behind and technically in fourth. The next race was in Michigan, where McCain felt confident that he could best Owens, and he did but only by four points. Heading to Nevada Owens would score a win, followed by another in Wyoming. More and more conservative leaders were throwing their support behind the Rocky Mountain Man whose campaign reminded some of Bush’s (minus the gaffes). It was also becoming clear that McCain would have to win the race by appealing to moderates and not as much from conservatives.
The major showdown of the race would be in Florida. Whoever won here would have the momentum going into Super Tuesday, and therefore would have a golden opportunity to win the race. A key figure in Florida was Governor Jeb Bush, who many conservatives had courted to run for the White House. Bush had refused to endorse any candidate, but just three days before the race decided to pick McCain. “The Senator from Arizona has worked much of his life to help others. He has the experience, grit, and tenacity to win the war on terror, and the intelligence and political will to improve the economy and cut spending at home. He is the right choice for America, and he is certainly the right choice for Florida.” Due in large part to this late endorsement, McCain would beat Owens by 2 points. Following this race Allen would withdraw, making truly a one-v-one in the home stretch.

[hcallega]

The Super Tuesday races would clearly decide the nomination, and both McCain and Owens were confident that they would come out on top. The following is a list of which states each candidate won:

Owens

Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia

McCain

Alaska, Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York

While Owens won one more state than McCain, McCain would take a large delegate lead and clearly had the “Big Mo”. Due to this, Owens officially withdrew from the race and endorsed McCain. The Senator had finally closed out the race and won the nomination. McCain would choose Owens as VP as an attempt to appease conservatives and create a “Unity Ticket”. In the convention in August the focus was on “Strong, Smart, and Conservative Leadership.” The keynote speaker was Senator George Allen who would address the convention with his stirring “It’s Been Long Enough” Speech:
“Twelve years ago, President George Bush was defeated by Governor Bill Clinton of Arkansas. A new era of leadership came to Washington. It brought with it more spending, more taxes, more regulation, and more scandal. For the first time in this century, articles of impeachment were brought before the United States Congress, and even more remarkably the House of Representative impeached the United States President. Four years ago, the United States Supreme Court decided a Presidential Election for the first time in history. Because of that decision we are engaged in a terrible war, the economy is struggling, and the deficit is on the rise. The Democrats have had twelve years to make America better. It’s been long enough.” The rest of the speech would involve Allen pointing out Democratic failings followed by the refrain “It’s been long enough.” It was clear that a new star in the GOP had been born.

[Historico]

Wow, everyone's going with McCain in a Democrats win in 2000 scenario as, I personally would have like to see Owens get win the nod. It's not suprising given how fairly good the Republican Party is about giving their runner ups to the nomination; another shot in the succeding election.

[President Mitt]

Wow, everyone's going with McCain in a Democrats win in 2000 scenario as, I personally would have like to see Owens get win the nod. It's not suprising given how fairly good the Republican Party is about giving their runner ups to the nomination; another shot in the succeding election.

Unless your Rockefeller...........

[hcallega]

2004 Presidential Election

   While the GOP was seeking its leader for the future, the Democrats were actually making some of the most exciting news of the summer. In early June it was leaked that President Gore was “strongly considering replacing Vice-President Lieberman on the ticket” (leaked memo from Chief of Staff Bill Daley to DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe). There were two major reasons for this. For much of his first term, organized labor leaders were critical of Gore’s support for current free-trade deals and doing little to support unions over business. In particular, UAW President Ron Gettelfinger repeatedly threatened to “stay out of the endorsement race. The UAW will never endorse the anti-worker Republican Party, but we cannot support a President who has failed to act in the better interest of our members.” The second major reason was Vice-President Lieberman’s comments in regards to possibly invading Iraq. These comments weakened the President’s resolve on the issue and led to questions as to whether or not he had complete control over his cabinet. Therefore the President would form a secret committee with the intention of finding a new VEEP. The committee, lead by DLC founder and Gore’s personal friend Al From, created this list with positives and negatives of each for the President to choose from (List published by From in his book The Radical Center: The White House Years)
•   Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, +: strong support from liberals, but not so much that he would cost independents and moderates. -: lack of charisma, could be easily branded as “New England Liberal”
•   Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico, +: Hispanic, moderate, highly experienced, part of “Clinton Wing” of party. -: Could make race an issue, doesn’t help with union issue, McCain is already moderate on immigration issue
•   Senator John Edwards of North Carolina, +: Populist voting record, pro-union but not a Midwesterner, charismatic and “Kennedyesque” -: no geographic balance to the ticket, very vulnerable in North Carolina as it is
•   Governor Tom Vilsack of Iowa, +: moderate Midwesterner, comes from key swing state, Catholic. -: not very exciting, could be viewed as a “cop out”, pro-business record might not satisfy labor.
In the end, Gore would choose Edwards primarily in an attempt to court progressives and labor union support. This would end up being key, as a week later the UAW officially endorsed him. Edwards’ support would come with a cost however, as Lieberman would endorse McCain and agree to appear at the Republican convention. In fact many Republicans urged McCain to select Lieberman to appeal to independents.
   The race itself was consistently tight, but lacked real excitement, as both candidates struggled to impress audiences. Gore focused on his successful foreign policy achievements, while McCain focused on reviving the economy and taking a tougher tone in foreign policy against terrorism. The candidates did agree on several issues however: both supported greater ethics reform, a balanced budget, environmental protections, immigration reform, and perhaps most importantly, both opposed the Iraq War. McCain made clear his views on the war in a speech to the VFW in Philadelphia: “The battlefield in the War on Terror is not in the Persian Gulf. It is not in Israel, or Syria, or Saudi Arabia. And it is not in Iraq. No, my friends the war on terror is being fought in and around the nation of Afghanistan. We cannot afford to loose sight of this. Because if we do, we run the risk of weakening our nation to yet another terrorist attack from an invigorated and empowered enemy.” McCain would instead hammer Gore on the economy, and on pandering the left on many issues on which he was once a moderate or even conservative: “My friends did you know that at one point Al Gore opposed abortion on demand? Or that he opposed racial quotas and affirmative action? Now in all fairness that was a long time ago. But as President Clinton’s Vice-President he was the administrations point man of NAFTA, and a key supporter of welfare reform and a balanced budget amendment. It’s true, and it has to make us wonder whether what he’s saying today is just another change of heart to win reelection.” (Speech to the Club for Growth)
   Going into the debates, McCain held a slight lead over Gore. His focus on the economy had hurt Gore, who was forced to defend the lack of growth. However Gore knew that his ace in the hole would be the war on terror. What he didn’t count for though, was the possibility of backlash from the left. In the first debate (focused on foreign policy), Gore hammered McCain on his “Two-Faced talk…You’ve said that you oppose invading Iraq, but you’ve also failed to denounce your parties platform, which calls for intervening in any nations that have ties to terrorism…. You’ve called out conservatives for being overly critical in a time of war, but then you have attacked me for a lack of decisiveness on an incredibly detailed and complicated issue.” McCain fired back by focusing on “this President’s lack of interest on confronting terror face first.” In the second debate, Gore praised his “efforts to make Washington more bipartisan through governing down the middle.” He also attacked McCain for “abandoning his convictions for the support of interest groups.” While McCain fought back, he was unable to deal with Gore’s constant offensive. McCain would win the town hall debate, as he appeared more personable and relatable. While Gore had pulled even with McCain, another threat appeared: Ralph Nader. Running once again as a Green, Nader had polled around 2-3% of the vote in most polls, but after Gore’s centrist dialogue in the debates jumped to 5%, mostly from social liberals and those in the northeast.
   On election eve, the polls showed McCain with 46%, Gore with 45%, Nader at 4%, and 5% undecided. However the final results would give McCain 50%, Gore 44%, and Nader 6%. Nader’s impact was primarily felt in swing states with high numbers of liberal Democrats and Independents, while having many moderate Republicans. McCain was able to secure the GOP in those states, while Nader peeled away votes from the incumbent. Therefore, the reign of Gore was over.

McCain/Owens: 50% of the PV, 342 EVs
Gore/Edwards: 44% of the PV, 196 EVs
Nader/Camejo: 6% of the PV, 0 EVs

[hcallega]

Sorry for the delay, here are the 2004 Senate election results:

Republican Holds (Non-Key Races):
Alabama-Shelby
Idaho-Crapo
Iowa-Grassley
Kansas-Brownback
Missouri-Bond
New Hampshire-Gregg
Ohio-Voinovich
Pennsylvania-Specter
Utah-Bennet

Democratic Holds (Non-Key):
Arkansas-Lincoln
California-Boxer
Connecticut-Dodd
Florida-Graham
Georgia-Miller
Hawaii-Inouye
Indiana-Bayh
Maryland-Milulski
Nevada-Reid
New York-Schumer
North Dakota-Dorgan
South Dakota-Daschle
Oregon-Wyden
Vermont-Leahy
Washington-Murray
Wisconsin-Feingold

Democratic Gains:
Alaska: After polling well all summer, moderate Democratic fmr. Gov. Tony Knowles defeated Senator Lisa Murkowski by a margin of 50-46%. Knowles focused on Murkowki's opposition to green subsidies while still harping on his support from drilling in ANWR.

Illinois-Barack Obama: With the retirment of non-chalant Republican Pete Fitzgerald, the race for the Illinois Senate race was on. Upsetting the establishment with a come-from-behind win in the Democratic Primaries, State Senator Barack Obama faced off initially against Republican Jack Ryan. But with a surprising sex scandal Ryan would drop out of the race, leading GOP leaders to scramble to find a replacement. In the end they would settle for conservative activists and Presidential candidate Alan Keyes who would go down in defeat, 63-33%

North Carolina-Erskine Bowles: A late fill-in for Senator John Edwards, Bowles campaign hard on his experience and moderate views while painting Burr as out of touch with the issues. A toss-up going into election day, Bowles wound win due in large part to Edwards driving Al Gore's support and Democratic turnout slightly up, 50-49%

Oklahoma-Brad Carson: With the strong support of the Democratic Party, Blue Dog Democrat Brad Carson would defeat former GOP Rep Tom Coburn 49.83-49.26%. Carson ran away from Gore, and focused his attacks on Coburn's criticism of the war in Afganistan as "unwinnable and unnecesary".

Republican Gains:
South Carolina-Jim DeMint: With the retirement of popular incumbent Democrat Fritz Hollings, the Democrats were at a huge disadvantage. Hollings had paved a fiscally conservative, socially moderate, trail and was from a different age of Democrats. Conservative Representative Jim DeMint beat Superintendent Innez Tennenbaum 51-46% to give South Carolina two GOP senators.

Louisiana-David Vitter: Narrowly missing a straightup victory, conservative Rep. David Vitter would defeat Treasurer John N. Kennedy 51-49%. A key factor was the division between Kennedy and third place finisher Chris John, aswell as the fact that the election was held in December, stiffling Democratic turnout.

Republican Holds (Key Races):
Colorado-Pete Coors: With the retirement of moderate Republican and former Democratic Senator Ben "Nighthorse" Campbell, the GOP had to scramble to find a candidate. After a bruising primary, Coors CEO Pete Coors won the nomination. Facing Democratic Congressman John Salazar, Coors would defeat the challenger 49.93-49.68% in a race where Bill Owens' coattails played a major factor in an incredibly close race.

Kentucky-Jim Bunning: Due in large part to his own blunders, as well as John McCain's weaknesses in the state, the HOF Pitcher and incumbent Senator was polling in a close race with St. Senator Dan Mongiardo. In the end, Bunning would scrape out a close win in the Bottom of the 9th, defeating Mongiardo 52-48%



All in all, the Senate would be 51-49 with a Democratic Majority. This would be expanded to 52-48 following Governor Janet Napalitano's appointment of former Governor Bruce Babbitt to replace President-Elect John McCain.

In the House the Republicans would pad their narrow majority by one seat, but with the divided congress it would be key that President McCain follow his pledge of bipartisianship

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I'm not sure but I've read somewhere that Arizona law mandates that, like in Wyoming, appointed Senator must came from the same party as predecessor.