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To wrap up on Texas, here's the PVI evolution over time:


As you can see, RG was consistently the more Democratic state throughout the period (although if trends continue this might change soon). Until the 1990s, TX and AM competed for second, though since 2000 we saw TX trend massively to the right while AM started zooming rapidly to the left from 2004 onwards. The two city-states always stayed Republican-leaning throughout the period, albeit to varying extent, but have trended sharply to the left since 2016 especially. Meanwhile, LN was always pretty Republican-leaning (except in 1964) but slipped into Titanium R territory in the 1990s and only kept digging from there. A classic tale of urban-rural divergence, I guess.

And here's a complete breakdown of the 2020 results. I considered using the 2018 Senate race instead, but there was very little difference in it outside of RG, and I figured it'd be better to use the more recent and higher-turnout election:


As noted, Biden didn't win a single county in TX and LN, and got accordingly blown out in both. His (very) relative areas of strength were in the couple mid-sized urban centers of each state, but even in these areas he was lucky to crack 30%. He won two counties each in DS and GV, but those are their respective urban cores, and even the suburban rings around them aren't nearly as Republican as they once were, so that was just enough for narrow victories. The turnaround from just a few decades ago is really remarkable. In AM meanwhile, Biden consolidated Obama and Hillary's wins in Travis and Bexar by winning two more counties along the central Austin-San Antonio corridor that forms the core of the state (and generally improved on Hillary's performance in and around it). And finally, we have RG, where Biden's performance was remarkably weak. He actually won fewer counties than Kerry, as seen in the previous map, but was spared his fate thanks to stronger performances around major cities (such as winning Cameron County, or winning El Paso by a 2-1 margin).


So that's a wrap for the South. Next we're moving up to the Midwest!

Lol this is Harvard Harris X poll not a real pollster neither party have the answer to the Economy Spk Johnson is at the helm of the H what is he doing about the economy nothing

is your answer to every poll showing trump leading is that it not real or denying it?.

He's just some mutant that long-timers here seem to treat as the local harmless homeless guy who debates the mailbox.

You might notice despite representing like 20% of all posts, nobody ever responds to him. Just put him on ignore and he basically disappears.

Israel needs to immediately make clear that any country attempting to carry out these illegal warrants will be treated as if they attempted a kidnapping and hostage-taking of an Israeli official. And start sending Netanyahu around the world with a security force that can repel such an attempt.

Receiving countries can deny visas. Foreign citizens don't have a right to travel to other countries.

Such an action by the ICC I think would make Netanyahu persona non grata in most of Europe. They won't arrest him but that means to not having to arrest him and being exposed as hypocrites (a bunch of African states right now are salivating at the notion of European states being forced by law to arrest a foreign leader and choose not to), they just won't let him fly or travel there. The U.S. won't do anything to Netanyahu, but that's quite the long plane trip from Tel Aviv to New York and Netanyahu and his ministers would be even more effectively isolated internationally.

If Netanyahu flies to the U.S. and he is under ICC criminal charges and we choose to do nothing, then the U.S. can never say anything "ICC" again in any circumstance and have it be worth ten cents.

The official US position is that we have no obligations to the ICC and are further under no obligations to see the treaty's success. That's been more-or-less the American position since 2002. Hell, in 2021 Blinken made a statement about the State Department's "longstanding objection to the Court’s efforts to assert jurisdiction over personnel of non-States Parties such as the United States and Israel." So I doubt anyone would consider US statements on the ICC regarding Israelis to be relevant anyway.

Doesn't apply to Europe who are the ICC's chief backers. So either Netanyahu visits and they're exposed as hypocrites and the ICC as an institution completely fails (would suit Africa en masse or really all the Global South perfectly fine), or Netanyahu can just never travel to Europe which gives Europeans the out of "we're not hypocrites, if his plane landed here we would've arrested him".

The U.S. are not treaty members but we back ICC actions when we find them useful, for example Putin's arrest warrant last year and Omar al-Bashir of Sudan.

That’s just called realpolitik. We aren’t gonna object when organizations we dislike take actions that we favor

There were two counties in the former Confederacy which voted this way: Clay County, NC, in the southwestern corner of the state, and Highland County, VA, which is high up in the Allegheny Mountains.

Looking to the border states, as shua alluded to, there were a lot in Missouri (21 in total -- the greatest concentration was in the Ozarks, but there were quite a few throughout the state, which leads me to wonder whether Landon got something of a neighbouring state effect), as well as four in Kentucky, and one in West Virginia.

Overall, then, it seems the best sort of place to look if you wanted to find such a voter would have been in habitually Republican, ancestrally Unionist hill areas.

https://twitter.com/politics1com/status/1792584937113080079?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno...

If this was to happen I doubt even he would win but he could come close.

New York too early to call?

https://twitter.com/natopress/status/1792508173535883362?s=46&t=xfzQeJbXuKB_...

This is getting stupid.

What the hell is going on? what next is nato going to declare a week for mourning if putin kick the bucket

To be fair, just because Putin dies doesn't mean the Ukraine war ends. Isn't the general consensus that whoever replaces Putin would be worse?

Not sure who will actually replace Putin. It seemed to be Patrushev before but he seems to have been sidelined.

Michigan doesn't close until 8 PM, but I'd keep an eye on Washtenaw County (Ann Arbor). If Biden isn't over 70 here he's likely to lose the state (and thus the election). If there's going to be a massive movement of young college voters away from Biden due to Gaza, Washtenaw will be ground zero.

Good luck. I speak from experience - growing a channel is easier said than done.

Israel should tell the ICC any attempt to arrest Israeli officials will be treated as a declaration of war and we should tell the ICC that we support Israel in doing that

There is no "we".