2012 Redistricting: States where the most is at stake?

[Mr.Phips]

Florida and Illinois are both hugely important.  They have both been horribly gerymandered and the out party could squeeze several seats out of a compromise map in 2012.

Illinois was actually a Republican/compromise map in 2001.  It eliminated downstate Democrat Dan Phelps by throwing him in a Republican district with John Shimkus. 

[Mr.Phips]

Wisconsin was a compromise map, the legislature was split.

Georgia's current map is a Republican gerrymander enacted in 2005.

North Carolina's current map is a Dem gerrymander, as far as I know.

Mass and Maryland wouldn't matter -- the Democrats have veto-proof majorities.

Is there anyway Republicans could make Wisconsin any worse for Democrats?

WI-02 is fairly packed with Democrats in order to make the formerly Democratic WI-01 safer for Ryan.  WI-04 is already packed with Democrats.  There really isnt a source of packed GOP votes other than WI-05 in the Milwaukee suburbs. 

[Mr.Phips]

Presuming Duffy wins in WI-07, they can make it the district more Republican by trading territory with WI-03 (which in turn would make Kind safer).

That is probably the best they could do here, but it would be difficult to make WI-07 a safe Republican district.  Obama got 57% there and even Kerry won it by three points.  To even make WI-07 a Bush district would be difficult. 

[Mr.Phips]

Wisconsin was a compromise map, the legislature was split.

Georgia's current map is a Republican gerrymander enacted in 2005.

North Carolina's current map is a Dem gerrymander, as far as I know.

Mass and Maryland wouldn't matter -- the Democrats have veto-proof majorities.

Wisconsin actually looks like a fair map, aside form the First district (which was drawn to keep Paul Ryan in it), the map's decent.

Georgia is currently a Court-drawn map IIRC.  Republicans tried to re-gerrymander it in 2003 after the Democrats did in 2001, but it got struck down by the courts.

North Carolina is most certainly a Democratic gerrymander--its' the best possible map for them

Mass and Maryland unfortunately won't matter at all, given that Dems hold something like 80% of the seats in the former and large majorities in the latter.

Georgia's map was re-gerrymandered by the GOP in 2005 to weaken Jim Marshall.

[Mr.Phips]

Also, it looks like the Dems will have 2/3rds in the CT legislature, so they don't need Malloy to gerrymander the state.

There is not much Democrats or anyone could do in Connecticut to create a Republican leaning seat.  Its kind of like Massachussetts. 

[Mr.Phips]

Also, it looks like the Dems will have 2/3rds in the CT legislature, so they don't need Malloy to gerrymander the state.

There is not much Democrats or anyone could do in Connecticut to create a Republican leaning seat.  Its kind of like Massachussetts. 

There is a bit more Republican strength. The real question is whether to settle for a solid 4-1, or go all the way to a 5-0. CT-02, 04, and 05 can all be made 3-4 points more Democratic.

I guess you could send CT-05 into Hartford and bring CT-04 into New Haven.