Pennsylvania Statewide Discussion

[Duke of York]

is Summer Lee vulnerable in her primary?

[wbrocks67]

is Summer Lee vulnerable in her primary?

Nah, I don't think so. I think the worst I'd expect for Lee is like 70/30.

[wbrocks67]

Turnout in Philly actually trended up in the 2023 primary from the 2022 primary, despite the high profile races in 2022. Interested to see how turnout does today

2023P: 205k
2022P: 201k
2021P: 162k
2020P: 302k

Sixty-Six wards has estimated turnout close to 150k now which seems high, but we'll see.

https://sixtysixwards.com/turnout-tracker/

[Duke of York]

Turnout in Philly actually trended up in the 2023 primary from the 2022 primary, despite the high profile races in 2022. Interested to see how turnout does today

2023P: 205k
2022P: 201k
2021P: 162k
2020P: 302k

Sixty-Six wards has estimated turnout close to 150k now which seems high, but we'll see.

https://sixtysixwards.com/turnout-tracker/

Interesting. Turnout was decent there in the 2023 election too.

[Oryxslayer]

Ben Forstate on twitter (@4st8) will be a good person to keep an eye on tonight for tracking potential primary upsets further down the ballot in the legislature of local levels.

[wbrocks67]

Revised estimate for Philly is about ~160k now - knew that was way too high for earlier. 3 more hours left, I suspect we'll probably get close to 2023/2022 when all is said and done (~200k)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Just got back from voting. I was #270 at my precinct, which is pretty meh in terms of turnout.

Pulled the levers for Biden/Lee/Stollsteimer/Bizarro/Kenyatta

[Mexican Wolf]

I voted by mail earlier this month for Williamson (but I will still vote for Biden in the general), Houlahan, Khan, Kenyatta, and McClelland, so unfortunately I can't provide any turnout news from my precinct. I'm really interested to see how the AG race turns out since DePasquale's won statewide office before and has a geographical advantage as the only candidate in the race not from SEPA, so I wonder how the other candidates can overtake him.

[Not Me, Us]

Voted around 4:30 today, not sure what number I was, but it was pretty dead when I got there, even more than normal. Wrote in Bernie for president (voting Biden in the general) and voted Stollsteimer, Kenyatta, and Bizzarro for the other offices.

[Splash]

I ended up voting for Biden, Patel, DePasquale, Bizarro, and Kenyatta. Someone from the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette tried to interview me as I left but I declined.

[wbrocks67]

Turnout for primaries:

2023P: 1.88M (1.05M D, 824K R)
2022P: 2.63M (1.28M D, 1.35M R)
2021P: 1.91M (945K D, 967K R)
2020P: 2.74M (1.60M D, 1.14M R)

[wbrocks67]

Ended up voting for Solomon for AG. Curious how it's all going to turn out

[Pheurton Skeurto]

I ended up writing in Elizabeth Warren for President as I planned to, wrote in Malcolm Kenyatta for Senate, then Khan/Bizarro/Kenyatta. My precinct was pretty busy at 6 pm, but everyone else voting at that time was a Republican lol. Didn’t ask what number I was.

Mark Houck had quite a presence there, he even had a sign that said “Trump for President, Houck for Congress” almost like it was an endorsement lol. Truly crossing all my fingers and toes that he pulls it off, though I know he won’t. But man…the seat would definitely flip without Fitzpatrick running lol.

[The Mikado]

Mark Houck had quite a presence there, he even had a sign that said “Trump for President, Houck for Congress” almost like it was an endorsement lol. Truly crossing all my fingers and toes that he pulls it off, though I know he won’t. But man…the seat would definitely flip without Fitzpatrick running lol.

What are we expecting here? Will Fitz be held under 60%?

[Nyvin]

Are there any polls of the primary in PA-1?

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Mark Houck had quite a presence there, he even had a sign that said “Trump for President, Houck for Congress” almost like it was an endorsement lol. Truly crossing all my fingers and toes that he pulls it off, though I know he won’t. But man…the seat would definitely flip without Fitzpatrick running lol.

What are we expecting here? Will Fitz be held under 60%?

I would be shocked if he got below 60%. If there’s even a remote possibility that Houck wins, and I think there is, it would take the stars aligning exactly right for it to come to fruition. I haven’t seen any polls in the race, but my sense is that Republicans aren’t stupid enough to throw away their only member in SEPA. Houck appeals to the absolute looniest, ultra MAGA types. I just don’t think enough of those exist here to tank Fitz.

[Malarkey Decider]

Revised estimate for Philly is about ~160k now - knew that was way too high for earlier. 3 more hours left, I suspect we'll probably get close to 2023/2022 when all is said and done (~200k)

The website you referenced now estimates 210k! total with still a little bit of time left.

[Mexican Wolf]

DePasquale starts with a huge lead in the Allegheny County EV, leading Bradford-Grey 74% to 9%.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Lee up 55-45% over Patel in PA-12 with that VBM drop in Allegheny county. That's probably the race right there.

She lost the VBM vote pretty heavily to Irwin in 2022.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Ugh, DePasquale’s early lead is making me nervous. I really don’t want him to win this primary off name recognition alone.

[Mexican Wolf]

Ugh, DePasquale’s early lead is making me nervous. I really don’t want him to win this primary off name recognition alone.

I feel the same way. That and his geographic advantage of being the only candidate not from SEPA.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Hey, uh…what’s going on in the Treasurer primary?

[Splash]

Unless election day votes break decisively towards one of the other candidates, I'm pretty sure Depasquale has this.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

DDHQ has called the AG primary for DePasquale.

[Not Me, Us]

DDHQ has called the AG primary for DePasquale.

Bummer, but I guess it makes sense that in a crowded race the guy with the most name recognition came out on top.