Pennsylvania Statewide Discussion

[Lambsbread]

So Garrity is a lock to win now?

I wouldn't say she's a lock, but I definitely like her odds more than DeFoor's. Maybe it's my pro-Malcolm bias, though.

[wbrocks67]

So Garrity is a lock to win now?

I wouldn't say she's a lock, but I definitely like her odds more than DeFoor's. Maybe it's my pro-Malcolm bias, though.

I would have to see McLelland's actual plan. Bizzaro at least for his part was already putting out attack ads against Garrity and setting the stage to show her as a 1/6 apologist but I don't know enough about Erin to know if she'll go down that path. I think the path is still easier to beat Garrity because of the 1/6 connection while DeFoor is such a blank slate that it is imperative of Malcolm to start defining himself and DeFoor early.

[Lambsbread]

So Garrity is a lock to win now?

I wouldn't say she's a lock, but I definitely like her odds more than DeFoor's. Maybe it's my pro-Malcolm bias, though.

I would have to see McLelland's actual plan. Bizzaro at least for his part was already putting out attack ads against Garrity and setting the stage to show her as a 1/6 apologist but I don't know enough about Erin to know if she'll go down that path. I think the path is still easier to beat Garrity because of the 1/6 connection while DeFoor is such a blank slate that it is imperative of Malcolm to start defining himself and DeFoor early.

Actually, I think you're right. Garrity is more beatable because she has at least garnered some attention for being a lunatic, whereas DeFoor has been quiet. He may win by virtue of not causing much of a stir during his first term. And Mcclelland has shown that she can at least win a primary statewide while facing tremendous odds--she seems to have a genuinely good ground game.

[wbrocks67]

So Garrity is a lock to win now?

I wouldn't say she's a lock, but I definitely like her odds more than DeFoor's. Maybe it's my pro-Malcolm bias, though.

I would have to see McLelland's actual plan. Bizzaro at least for his part was already putting out attack ads against Garrity and setting the stage to show her as a 1/6 apologist but I don't know enough about Erin to know if she'll go down that path. I think the path is still easier to beat Garrity because of the 1/6 connection while DeFoor is such a blank slate that it is imperative of Malcolm to start defining himself and DeFoor early.

Actually, I think you're right. Garrity is more beatable because she has at least garnered some attention for being a lunatic, whereas DeFoor has been quiet. He may win by virtue of not causing much of a stir during his first term. And Mcclelland has shown that she can at least win a primary statewide while facing tremendous odds--she seems to have a genuinely good ground game.

Exactly- DeFoor is a blank slate which I've said before is good and bad. If Malcolm doesn't define him though, he will get a pass and be a generic option. So he's gotta make sure that doesn't happen. Meanwhile, yeah from what I've seen, Erin seems to actually be a decent candidate, so I hope she takes a page out of Bizarro's playbook and runs with the Garrity-is-bat-sh!t stuff

[Nyvin]

Garrity is also a complete sell-out to Jeff Yass.

[Lambsbread]

Garrity is also a complete sell-out to Jeff Yass.

All Pennsylvania Republicans are. At least the statewide candidates.

[kwabbit]

So Garrity is a lock to win now?

I wouldn't say she's a lock, but I definitely like her odds more than DeFoor's. Maybe it's my pro-Malcolm bias, though.

I would have to see McLelland's actual plan. Bizzaro at least for his part was already putting out attack ads against Garrity and setting the stage to show her as a 1/6 apologist but I don't know enough about Erin to know if she'll go down that path. I think the path is still easier to beat Garrity because of the 1/6 connection while DeFoor is such a blank slate that it is imperative of Malcolm to start defining himself and DeFoor early.

Actually, I think you're right. Garrity is more beatable because she has at least garnered some attention for being a lunatic, whereas DeFoor has been quiet. He may win by virtue of not causing much of a stir during his first term. And Mcclelland has shown that she can at least win a primary statewide while facing tremendous odds--she seems to have a genuinely good ground game.

Exactly- DeFoor is a blank slate which I've said before is good and bad. If Malcolm doesn't define him though, he will get a pass and be a generic option. So he's gotta make sure that doesn't happen. Meanwhile, yeah from what I've seen, Erin seems to actually be a decent candidate, so I hope she takes a page out of Bizarro's playbook and runs with the Garrity-is-bat-sh!t stuff

How much press do these minor row offices get? Garrity seemingly won because the environment was neutral (maybe even tilt GOP down-ballot) and people go GOP = money, DeFoor seemingly won by so much because Ahmad is an exotic last name. Kenyatta seems like he'll have the exact same problem as Ahmad in that regard.

[Mexican Wolf]

Another key example of how PA listing home counties under candidates' names affects election results: Craig Williams lost the R AG primary 29% to 70% and lost 66 out of 67 counties against Dave Sunday, but he won his home county Delaware 63% to 37%.

[Nyvin]

It really seems like the "list candidate's home county" thing works out massively in favor of the west and central counties and is often to detriment of SEPA, at least in the Dem primaries.   

[Dr. Cynic]

Apparently she won Allegheny County by 40%.  Idiots

She's more familiar to us Yinzers than someone from Erie. Keep in mind, races like these that have next to zero advertising are going to hinge on voter name recognition.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Apparently she won Allegheny County by 40%.  Idiots

She's more familiar to us Yinzers than someone from Erie. Keep in mind, races like these that have next to zero advertising are going to hinge on voter name recognition.

Not really. She won because people saw "Allegheny County" beneath her name. That's it. If they know her name at all it's because she's now lost multiple times for a variety of different random offices. Doesn't exactly scream "prime Treasurer material" does it?

 I echo what somebody else said in the thread - why on earth does PA list each candidate's county? Just to show off the fact that 90% of voters walk into the booth not even knowing what offices are on the ballot that year and picking their favorite county is the only way they feel some semblance of control?

This was a great chance to unseat brain-dead Garrity with one of the best local Democrats in the state. Now it is probably lean R.

[wbrocks67]

It really seems like the "list candidate's home county" thing works out massively in favor of the west and central counties and is often to detriment of SEPA, at least in the Dem primaries.   

I mean yes, but only b/c there is usually multiple candidates from SEPA. If it's simply a 1:1 race with one person from the west and one from SEPA, SEPA will win out.

[wbrocks67]

Philly turnout-

2024P: 201k
2023P: 205k
2022P: 201k
2021P: 162k
2020P: 302k

Turnout on par with 2022 which makes sense (prez year but no contested races vs last big contested race.) 2023 is a bit of an outlier; the only reason it was above 2021 levels was b/c of the mayoral primary

[wbrocks67]

Overall PA turnout-

2024P: 2.04M (1.08M D, 960K R)
2023P: 1.88M (1.05M D, 824K R)
2022P: 2.63M (1.28M D, 1.35M R)
2021P: 1.91M (945K D, 967K R)
2020P: 2.74M (1.60M D, 1.14M R)

Rs had lower turnout than 2021 lol

[SnowLabrador]

You can't equate primaries to general elections. If you could, Thom Tillis would have lost heavily in 2020. That being said, it would be weird to vote Democratic in the primary but not in the general election.

[wbrocks67]

Something else interesting is that Republicans had quite the undervote. Democrats had similar totals for all races. Reps clearly had a voters-who-only-care-about-Trump problem:

Dems:
Prez: 1,022,270
Senate: 1,023,093
AttorneyG: 1,049,133
AuditorG: 1,014,515
State Treasurer: 1,007,917

Reps:
Prez: 952,069
Senate: 877,711
AttorneyG: 881,319
AuditorG: 844,136
State Treasurer: 852,679