What will it take for any states with a Cook PVI above R+3 and D+3 to vote the other way?
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  What will it take for any states with a Cook PVI above R+3 and D+3 to vote the other way?
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Author Topic: What will it take for any states with a Cook PVI above R+3 and D+3 to vote the other way?  (Read 297 times)
robocop
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« on: April 21, 2024, 06:38:48 AM »

Looking at the current Cook PVI per state under what circumstances would a state D+3 and above vote Republican and a state R+3 and above vote a Democrat candidate at any level within the next three Presidential election cycles?

Would it require a specific type of candidate that can pull it off and if so, who? Or would it have to be a wave year and how big of a blue or red wave? And are any states completely off limits even in the biggest wave year?

https://www.cookpolitical.com/cook-pvi/2022-partisan-voting-index/state-map-and-list
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ultraviolet
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« Reply #1 on: April 24, 2024, 04:06:25 PM »
« Edited: April 24, 2024, 04:23:16 PM by ultraviolet »

On a presidential level:

For Democrats: Texas (R+5) in 2028/2032. Possibly Alaska (R+8) too.

For Republicans: None. Colorado (D+4) is most likely gone. I can’t see any of the other states voting red for at least 20 years.

At any level:

For Democrats: AK, KS, KY, MT, OH, IA, WV, and SC have statewide Dems right now. LA just had one. Anything could happen in the south with the right candidate. I’d only write off ID, WY, and the Dakotas as impossible.

For Republicans: Of the >D+3 states, only VT has a statewide Republican. MD and MA just had one. Under the right circumstances, Rs could probably win statewide everywhere except maybe CA.

Obviously in most of these cases the candidate would have to be a liberal Republican/conservative Democrat, but you do get really good candidates like that sometimes so it’s possible.
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