The partisan coalition shifted over the past 20 years, and this was particularly felt in Ohio.
The rise of a more populist and Nationalist Republican Party, and rise of a more cultured and urbane Democratic Party, meant that the Republicans gained ground in Ohio and the Democrats lost it.
Ohio doesn't really major urban centers and major suburbs to balance this shift out either. In Michigan and Pennsylvania (two similar states), the gains the Democrats have made in the Detroit, Philly and Pittsburgh suburbs have counteracted rural losses. That hasn't been the case with Ohio city suburbs.
Yeah. If you look at the main OH cities, their suburbs aren't even that favorable to Dems; Cinci has a lot of lower education WWC suburbs that have drifted right, and Cinci has a ring of ultra conservative suburbs that have cultural reasons for being so R.
And likewise for Cleveland. Really out of OH's Big 3 metro areas, only the suburbs around Columbus behave like typical suburbs - places like Delaware County that have higher levels of education/wealth have swung predictably leftward.
Delaware County (Columbus suburbs): Romney+23, Trump+7
Geauga County (Cleveland suburbs): Romney+21, Trump+23
Butler County (Cincinatti suburbs): Romney+25, Trump+24
...Spot the odd one out.
