Pennsylvania Primaries Thread (4/23) (Non-Presidential)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Free NYT link: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/04/23/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-primary.html?unlocked_article_code=1.mk0.Tyl5.vq1UFmCck5Cx&smid=url-share

Polls close at 8 PM Eastern.

Contested Races:

PA-1 R: Brian Fitzpatrick faces a conservative primary challenge from Anti-Abortion Activist Mark Houck

PA-3 D: Dwight Evans faces a nominal primary challenge from Tracey Gordon

PA-7 R: Three candidates are competing for the right to take on Susan Wild in the fall.

PA-10 D: Three candidates are competing for the right to lose to Scott Perry

PA-12 D: Summer Lee faces a moderate primary challenge from Bhavani Patel

PA-14 D: Two candidates are competing for the right to lose to Guy Reschenthaler

Row Offices: Both sides have a contested Attorney General Primary, and Democrats also have contested primaries for Auditor and Treasurer.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Free NYT link: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/04/23/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-primary.html?unlocked_article_code=1.mk0.Tyl5.vq1UFmCck5Cx&smid=url-share

Polls close at 8 PM Eastern.

Contested Races:

PA-1 R: Brian Fitzpatrick faces a conservative primary challenge from Anti-Abortion Activist Mark Houck

PA-3 D: Dwight Evans faces a nominal primary challenge from Tracey Gordon

PA-7 R: Three candidates are competing for the right to take on Susan Wild in the fall.

PA-10 D: Three candidates are competing for the right to lose to Scott Perry

PA-12 D: Summer Lee faces a moderate primary challenge from Bhavani Patel

PA-14 D: Two candidates are competing for the right to lose to Guy Reschenthaler

Row Offices: Both sides have a contested Attorney General Primary, and Democrats also have contested primaries for Auditor and Treasurer.

Scott Perry is far from safe.  He’s favored, but that race is solidly Lean R right now

[Nyvin]

Anyone know the chances Fitzpatrick loses tonight?

PA-10 D: Three candidates are competing for the right to lose to Scott Perry

Why right to lose?  A firebrand conservative Freedom Caucus member is hardly the perfect fit for a urban/suburban, left trending Trump+4 district.

[wbrocks67]

Fitz was 66-34 in 2022 and 63-37 in 2020 so I suspect he'll probably be around there once again

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Anyone know the chances Fitzpatrick loses tonight?

PA-10 D: Three candidates are competing for the right to lose to Scott Perry

Why right to lose?  A firebrand conservative Freedom Caucus member is hardly the perfect fit for a urban/suburban, left trending Trump+4 district.

Perry's margin in 2022 wasn't that close.

[wbrocks67]

Anyone know the chances Fitzpatrick loses tonight?

PA-10 D: Three candidates are competing for the right to lose to Scott Perry

Why right to lose?  A firebrand conservative Freedom Caucus member is hardly the perfect fit for a urban/suburban, left trending Trump+4 district.

Perry's margin in 2022 wasn't that close.

Daniels only did slightly worse in 2022 than DePasquale did in 2020 despite a much bigger investment from Dems in 2020 (and Prez turnout.) Daniels was basically left for dead in 2022 and still only lost by 7.6%.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Fitzpatrick and Evans have overwhelmingly won their primaries

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Dang. Was hoping for some fun with the 1st tonight.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Summer Lee has won her primary

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

AG D: DePasquale
AG R: Sunday
Auditor D: Kenyatta
PA-10 D: Stelson

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

State Rep. Ryan Mackenzie from the Allentown area won the Republican primary in PA-07 to take on Susan Wild. Does anyone here know how moderate or radical he is compared to other GOP primary candidates and if this changes the trajectory of that race?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

PA-7 R: MacKenzie
PA-14 D: Dziados
Treasurer D: McClellan

That's all for tonight

[Pheurton Skeurto]

I just checked the margin in the 1st and it looks like Fitzpatrick just barely got over 60%, which is shocking even if the race was called pretty early.

[Thank you for being a friend...]

State Rep. Ryan Mackenzie from the Allentown area won the Republican primary in PA-07 to take on Susan Wild. Does anyone here know how moderate or radical he is compared to other GOP primary candidates and if this changes the trajectory of that race?

He's right-wingy.  He's no Charlie Dent (who I met by the way and was viewed by people as a "very mainstream Northeastern Republican"), but then again I don't know if that would have helped him win the party nomination anyway.  This district is basically split right down the middle.  It's ultra competitive - and so the nominees are going to go to not moderates (as one might think), but two people that represent the interests of the D and R bases.

[wbrocks67]

I just checked the margin in the 1st and it looks like Fitzpatrick just barely got over 60%, which is shocking even if the race was called pretty early.

Yeah, this was actually Fitz's worse performance in the last 3 cycles.

63/37 - 2020
66/34 - 2022
61/39 - 2024

If Houck was actually funded, this might've got interesting...

[Pheurton Skeurto]

I just checked the margin in the 1st and it looks like Fitzpatrick just barely got over 60%, which is shocking even if the race was called pretty early.

Yeah, this was actually Fitz's worse performance in the last 3 cycles.

63/37 - 2020
66/34 - 2022
61/39 - 2024

If Houck was actually funded, this might've got interesting...

I just checked and it looks like Houck won the borough where I live, which would explain why I was getting the feeling he might have a shot. I guess a lot of his support was concentrated in the more conservative areas of the county (naturally) but Fitzpatrick ran up the numbers in places like Bensalem and Doylestown. If Fitzpatrick faces another primary challenge in 2026 and that candidate is able to thin the margins in some of the larger population centers, it could get interesting.

[Atlas Force]

I wonder how many ancestral Republicans there are who happily voted for Fitzpatrick in previous primaries but are now Democrats who voted in the Democratic primary this year.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe D

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

I just checked the margin in the 1st and it looks like Fitzpatrick just barely got over 60%, which is shocking even if the race was called pretty early.

Yeah, this was actually Fitz's worse performance in the last 3 cycles.

63/37 - 2020
66/34 - 2022
61/39 - 2024

If Houck was actually funded, this might've got interesting...

Yeah, Fitzpatrick really underperformed expectations. It's surprising given moderates in swing seats usually do well in primaries.