Why do pundit House forecasts seem so harsh on Democrats?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

While anything can happen when the House is so narrowly divided, it's reasonable to believe that 2022 was more or less the high water mark for the party under the current house map. The House is going to fundamentally favor Rs for as long as FL, OH, PA, NC, TX and WI are under their control for redistricting purposes. With NY, MI, AZ, and CA all under some form of an independent commission and MD/MA/NJ already maxed-out, IL isn't enough to match the Republicans redistricting power.

In what world is PA under Republican control for redistricting?

Also, if anything 2022 looks far more like a below average result for Democrats in terms of number of House seats under the current map.  It was an Atlas blue ripple in the House in a year where most erroneously predicted a Republican tsunami. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

While anything can happen when the House is so narrowly divided, it's reasonable to believe that 2022 was more or less the high water mark for the party under the current house map. The House is going to fundamentally favor Rs for as long as FL, OH, PA, NC, TX and WI are under their control for redistricting purposes. With NY, MI, AZ, and CA all under some form of an independent commission and MD/MA/NJ already maxed-out, IL isn't enough to match the Republicans redistricting power.

In what world is PA under Republican control for redistricting?

Also, if anything 2022 looks far more like a below average result for Democrats in terms of number of House seats under the current map.  It was an Atlas blue ripple in the House in a year where most erroneously predicted a Republican tsunami. 

Legislative Republicans have the ability to resist the Dem Gerrymander that Wolf would have obviously preferred.

I see 2022 as an above average result caused by Republicans' inept strategy.

The Democratic PA Supreme Court drew a pretty Democratic-friendly map not terribly different from what Democrats might’ve drawn.