Bin Laden captured Oct 2004

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Osama Bin Laden was captured in the last week before the election. Does the map change?

[Marokai Backbeat]

Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire probably go Republican. Iowa and New Mexico solidify for Bush and he goes over 50% in them. Not only that, but Minnesota, Oregon, and Michigan would just barely go for Kerry, because of the confidence this would inspire in the Bush Administration.

321-171

[memphis]

After an initial celebration, the nation quickly begins to ask why we're in Iraq when this criminal has been on the loose for three years. Mild swing to Bush.

[Psychic Octopus]

Bump.

[Psychic Octopus]

Bush/Cheney - 381
Kerry/Edwards - 157


I think that on the whole, there is a 3 to 4 point swing to Bush in the wake of Osama's capture; Somewhat more ambitous then the others; Washington and New Jersey are the surprises of the night, much like Indiana was for Obama in 2008.

[Bo]

Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire probably go Republican. Iowa and New Mexico solidify for Bush and he goes over 50% in them. Not only that, but Minnesota, Oregon, and Michigan would just barely go for Kerry, because of the confidence this would inspire in the Bush Administration.

321-171

This map seems about right, even though a greater swing towards Bush could possibly occur.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

345-193 Bush:

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

A massive Bush landslide with Maine as a toss-up state.

[Bo]

A massive Bush landslide with Maine as a toss-up state.

Care to make a map?

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

[California8429]

345-193 Bush:

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Bush wins in a landslide, obviously.

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

I think that you all are overrating Bush's gains. I gave him a 1% gain across the board. This would not hurt Bush, but it still would not help him all that much.

It's Bin Laden. This is 2004, not 2008, the memory of Bin Laden is still fresh in the peoples' minds, and his return to justice would be a HUGE plus to the Bush campaign, especially one week before election. Without time to dissolve, this is the kind of game-changer that would've put NJ and ME into question.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I think that you all are overrating Bush's gains. I gave him a 1% gain across the board. This would not hurt Bush, but it still would not help him all that much.

Garrison, I think you're understating his gains.  Capturing Bin Laden in 2004 would have been HUGE.  It would have been a massive game changer.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Maybe after a few weeks, but not in time for the elections.

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

I wouldn't be surprised if New York was close (Bin Laden being behind 9/11 and all.) Kerry would probably have done best just to concede ahead of time.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

This is my new map, I will delete my old one...

The closest states: Illinois, California, Connecticut.

Bush wins in a walk.

Too extreme.  Healthy balance, Garrison

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

This is my new map, I will delete my old one...

The closest states: Illinois, California, Connecticut.

Bush wins in a walk.

Too extreme.  Healthy balance, Garrison

I'd paint IL a solid 50%, NJ is questionable, and I think ME's first district would vote Kerry, albeit narrowly. He is from New England after all.

[Psychic Octopus]

Hawaii? Really, Garrison? Besides that, California and Maine, I basically agree.

[phk]

2004 States + NH + NJ + NY becoming super-close + PA + WI + OR

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Hawaii? Really, Garrison? Besides that, California and Maine, I basically agree.

Hawaii actually polled close in October, and it has wild incumbent swings; it isn't outside the realm of possibility.

[Psychic Octopus]

Hawaii? Really, Garrison? Besides that, California and Maine, I basically agree.

Hawaii actually polled close in October, and it has wild incumbent swings; it isn't outside the realm of possibility.

Really? I haven't payed attention to that number. I still presume that Kerry would win, though.

[phk]

Hawaii? Really, Garrison? Besides that, California and Maine, I basically agree.

Hawaii actually polled close in October, and it has wild incumbent swings; it isn't outside the realm of possibility.

Really? I haven't payed attention to that number. I still presume that Kerry would win, though.

Hawaii had polled close enough that Kerry had even sent Clinton there to campaign.