French Presidential Election 22 April 2007 Thread

[Umengus]

Which candidate should a high turnout benefit?

difficult to say. I would say le Pen because a high turnout= lots popular voters (often non voters) at polling stations. But it's not scientific and some people think not the same.

12 am: turnout: 31,21% (21,4% in 2002)

[Tender Branson]

Which candidate should a high turnout benefit?

difficult to say. I would say le Pen because a high turnout= lots popular voters (often non voters) at polling stations. But it's not scientific and some people think not the same.

12 am: turnout: 31,21% (21,4% in 2002)

Wow, could be a total turnout of 80-82%, which means 36 Mio. votes. It will be interesting to see if one of the top candidates gets 28% of the vote or better said more than 10 Mio. votes in the first round.

[Hash]

Under a higher turnout in 2002, I believe Josping could have made it to Round 2. Although hard to say.

Oh and, let's go Sarkozy!

[Tender Branson]

Turnout in Paris:

24,6% until 11:30 compared to 20,4% in 2002.

This is bad for Royal, isn´t it ? Paris normally votes Socialist and if the national turnout is 10% higher compared to 2002, 4% in Paris is no good sign. But we´ll see ...

Turnout in French overseas departments (Saturday):

Saint-Pierre et Miquelon: 63,11% (2002: 41,97%)
New-Caledonia: 57,44% (2002: 49,26%)
French-Guyana: 53,31% (2002: 46,76%)
French-Polynesia: 55,88% (2002: 52,07%)

[Tender Branson]

Turnout in Paris:

24,6% until 11:30 compared to 20,4% in 2002.

This is bad for Royal, isn´t it ? Paris normally votes Socialist and if the national turnout is 10% higher compared to 2002, 4% in Paris is no good sign. But we´ll see ...

Woops, my fault. The Paris region is a swing region:

Thanks to Kireevs site:

http://www.electoralgeography.com/en/countries/f/france/2002-president-elections-france.html

it shows for 2002's first round:

Ile-de-France:

Chirac: 19,1 %
Jospin: 16,8 %
Le Pen: 16,0 %

So, not so bad for Royal ...

[afleitch]

Turnout in Paris:

24,6% until 11:30 compared to 20,4% in 2002.

This is bad for Royal, isn´t it ? Paris normally votes Socialist and if the national turnout is 10% higher compared to 2002, 4% in Paris is no good sign. But we´ll see ...

Woops, my fault. The Paris region is a swing region:

Thanks to Kireevs site:

http://www.electoralgeography.com/en/countries/f/france/2002-president-elections-france.html

it shows for 2002's first round:

Ile-de-France:

Chirac: 19,1 %
Jospin: 16,8 %
Le Pen: 16,0 %

So, not so bad for Royal ...

Do remember that some parts of Paris were Chirac's 'fiefdom.' Without him it will be interesting to see how things go.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Do remember that some parts of Paris were Chirac's 'fiefdom.' Without him it will be interesting to see how things go.

Paris proper was, yes (but not the extent that the Correze (and some areas bordering on Correze) was. Curiously Francois Hollande's seat is in Correze) but Paris is not the entire Ille de France; Sarkozy himself is based in the inner western suburbs (Hautes-de-Seine).

Might as well add that about the other candidates... Royal is based in Deux-Sevres and Bayrou is based in the Pau area. Le Pen is from Morbihan but he never does very well there (better than the rest of Brittany though).

Not sure where Besancenot or Laguiller are from, Buffet is a machine politician based just outside St Denis, Bové is (of course) based in Aveyron, Voynet used to have a seat in Jura (based around the amusingly named Dole), De Villiers is based in the Vendee.

[kireev]

Russian NTV Channel said that their "trusted" sources say

Sarkozy 30%
Royal 25%
Bayrou 15%
Le Pen 15%

[Keystone Phil]

Turnout is at 74% with about three hours remaining.

France 24 is having an election special in about two hours. They also have English coverage - http://www.france24.com/france24Public/en/news/world.html;jsessionid=CDF6C9D6BB0CA36CE686EDCF3D6DAF2B

[Umengus]

Russian NTV Channel said that their "trusted" sources say

Sarkozy 30%
Royal 25%
Bayrou 15%
Le Pen 15%

Very good for Sarkozy if it's true but it's too early.

[Hash]

Can't believe Le Pen at 15.

[Umengus]

Can't believe Le Pen at 15.

it's possible if sarkozy is at 30%

Sarkozy and Royal would be at the second run, Le Pen just before Bayrou. (rumors)

[Tender Branson]

According to "Le Figaro" total turnout could reach 87% or about 39 Mio. votes.

[Umengus]

Sarkozy: 26,5%
Royal: 26%
Bayrou: 16%
le Pen: ?

source: http://www.romandie.com/infos/ats/display.asp?page=20070422175721111111111111111.xml

With this result (conform to csa poll), Le Pen should do good result.

[Umengus]

Ipsos would give:

Sarkozy: 27%
Royal: 26%
Bayrou: 18%
Le Pen: 16%

[Keystone Phil]

Polls should be closing in about an hour and a half, right?

[Umengus]

Ifop would give:

Royal: 26%
Sarkozy: 26%
Le Pen: 19%
Bayrou: 18%

[Umengus]

Polls should be closing in about an hour and a half, right?

polls closed since for 37 minutes behalve for some cities (still 1h 20)

[Umengus]

servers are busy, very slow. Damn it!

[Harry Hayfield]

Sky News (of all people) is reporting the following exit poll

Sarskoy 28%
Royal 25%

All of which brings up the question of MoE

[Tender Branson]

servers are busy, very slow. Damn it!

Yeah. I tried too. Probably 40 Mio. French and another 100 mio. from elsewhere in Europe and America are now floating the Belgian and Swiss TV channels. No wonder they break down

[Harry Hayfield]

Ipsos would give:

Sarkozy: 27%
Royal: 26%
Bayrou: 18%
Le Pen: 16%

Take this one for instance, let's assume a 3% MoE, that could mean:

Sarkozy: 24 - 30%
Royal: 23 - 29%
Bayrou: 15 - 21%
Le Pen: 13 - 18%

[Keystone Phil]

Where is everyone getting the results from?

[Umengus]

http://www.advalvas.be/fr/index.php?option=content&task=view&id=12300&comments=1#reactions

[Harry Hayfield]

Where is everyone getting the results from?

Sky News (until 1700 GMT) then France 24 until 2100 GMT and then TV5 Monde until 2235 GMT