What a tackle by Rosey Grier: An Alternate History

[Historico]

Hey did you get my PM about my suggestions for VP Campbell and Speaker Armey?

[hcallega]

2004 Presidential Election

President McCain's first term was rocky, but he showed some very strong signs of good things to come. His response to 9/11 was swift and aggressive, and the following invasion of Afghanistan was viewed as a very strong success. His approval ratings were in the high 60s following the invasion, and most Americans saw him as one of the nation's strongest leaders. However by 2004 events had turned south. The economy was struggling and many Americans wondered why US troops were still stationed inside Afghanistan. Despite these two negatives, McCain held onto approval ratings in the high 50s. It was quite difficult to imagine a Democrat defeating McCain for the White House.

The Democratic field was a fairly small and weak one. The first candidate to gain any leverage was former Vermont Governor Howard Dean. Dean was an outspoken opponent of McCain's Afghanistan policy, and drew on strong support from students and libertarian leaning Democrats: "The President's policy in Afghanistan makes no sense. We did not go there on a mission of regime change. We went there to capture or kill Osama bin Laden and to remove the operational capabilities of Al Queada. Both goals have been filled. And my question now is Mr. President, why are we still there?"

Dean's candidacy was followed by that of Senator Bob Graham of Florida. Graham was a moderate southerner who agreed with McCain on many issues, but drew the line in his belief in changing the direction of US foreign policy: "What President McCain fails to realize is that we need a global approach to the war on terror. Right now we are fighting this war in a conventional manner, and if we continue to do so we will be fighting it for a very long time to come. We need to ensure that no terrorist anywhere in the world is safe, not just in Afghanistan."

From the far left, two candidates jumped into the race. The first was Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio. Kucinich opposed McCain on a whole slew of issues, especially foreign policy and the economy. The other was Reverend Al Sharpton. Sharpton attempted to rally the African-American vote, but failed due in large part to a lack of support from prominent activists in the community such as former President Julian Bond.

From the center, two political outsiders jumped in. The first was General Wesley Clark, the former commander of NATO ground forces in Kosovo. Clark was very moderate, and primarily focused his attacks on McCain's economic policies. He called them "aimed at the very wealthiest Americans" and "the same sort of failed trickle-down policies we saw in the 1980s." Also, former Senator Gary Hart of Colorado joined the race. Hart was long removed from politics, but had a prominent record as a Senator and Chief-of-Staff to former Vice-President Ralph Yarborough. Hart had also been an adviser to Presidents Bond and Gore. Hart opposed a slew of McCain's policies, and advocated that the Democratic Party shift towards the center: "As a party we cannot afford to loose the center once again. If we do so, we will fail not only in 2004 but also for many years to come."

One final candidate made a major impact on the race. Former Secretary of Commerce Henry Cisneros joined the field and instantly became a prominent front runner. Cisneros had also been HUD secretary under President Bond and had become a favorite of both the black and hispanic communities. He was also the only candidate in the field who had a strong record of supporting labor, though his part in negotiating NAFTA was quite controversial with the left. Cisneros's chief rival for the nomination was Dean, who painted Cisnersos as "entitled to the special interests."

The nomination fight was a back and forth tussell. Cisneros was victorious in Iowa, but Dean bounced back in New Hampshire. From then on out it was on. However Clark's presence would hurt Dean in many states, and after Super Tuesday he would withdraw and endorse Cisneros. Cisneros would select Hart as his VEEP creating an all South West ticket.

In the general election, it was Cisneros vs. McCain. While Cisneros attempted to portray McCain as an arch-conservative, most Americans saw him as very moderate. They also saw Cisneros as overly partisian and aggressive while campaigning. The campaign was very intense, with both sides launching angry attack ads. But the overall direction of the country was positive, and that was ultimately what tipped the balance in favor of McCain.

McCain/Thompson (R) 54% of the PV, 328 EVs
Cisneros/Hart (D) 44% of the PV, 210 EVs

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

Great TL, but, Arizona?

[Historico]

So wait did he drop Campbell from the ticket....U left that part out of the last installment because it's says Thompson at the end of the ticket in '04 instead of Carroll Campbell. Interesting race to have Secretary Ciseneros become the first Hispanic American nominated by either party and have a fairly successful run against a popular incumbent. Can't wait to see what happens in Johnny Boy's second term...Keep it comming,

btw, here's my interpretation of the 2004 Democratic Primaries

Former Secretary of Commerce Henry G. Cisneros of Texas
General Wesley Clark of Arkansas
Former Governor Howard Dean of Vermont

[hcallega]

Campbell resigned from the ticket in the summer of 2004. McCain selected Thompson as his VEEP.

2004 Congressional Elections

Senate Elections
Entering Elections: 51 R, 49 D
Democratic Gains
-Alaska: Tony Knowles
-Illinois: Dan Hynes
-Oklahoma: Brad Carson
Republican Gains
-Louisiana: David Vitter
-South Carolina: Jim DeMint
Following Elections: 50 R, 50 D

House Elections
Entering Elections: 224 R, 221 D
Following Elections: 232 D, 213 R

[Historico]

Here's my interpretation of the 2000 GOP Primaries...

Senator John S. McCain III of Arizona
Former Governor Lamar Alexander of Tennesse
1996 VP Nomine Christine Todd Whitman of New Jersey
Senator Dan Quayle of Indiana

[hcallega]

Since the forum was being weird last night, here is a bullet point summary of President McCain’s second term
Domestic Policy
•   Continued to fight for a balanced budget and against pork barrel spending, but had a greater deal of difficulty as Democrats gained more power in congress
•   Aggressive federal response to Hurricane Katrina. Former Governor Doug Wilder was his point man in Louisiana and Mississippi. Criticized by conservatives for usurping state power and allowing a “tax-and-spend” Democrat to run the ground operation.
Foreign Policy
•   Lebanon Civil War fought after assassination of President by Syria. Syria and Hezbollah against moderate Muslims and Christian Militia. Israel invented to oppose Israel. Threat of US intervention brought war to an end and both Syria and Israel withdrew in peace settlement.
•   Kurdish Revolution: US supported successful Kurdish revolution, employing US air support to pummel Iraqi ground forces.
•   Saddam Hussein assassinated in 2006. Ba’ath Party remained in power, but with a far more moderate leader.
•   Iran pursuing nuclear weapon, but more aggressively than in OTL
Economic Policy
•   Solid economy until Fall of 2007, when housing market began to fall
•   Stimulus checks approved in winter of 2008
•   September of 2008: Market crashes, though not as bad as in OTL
•   After much congressional debate, bailouts approved by congress in November, after elections.
Democratic Gains in the Senate: OH (Brown), PA (Schwartz, as Casey was a successor to the already held Democratic seat), TN (Ford Jr.), Vermont (Sanders)
Democratic Gains in the House: 18 Seats

[hcallega]

So for the 2008 Presidential Election I'm planning on doing more of a timeline rather than what I've been doing so far. But first I just need to give some good background info.

First, here is congressional leadership:
Speakers of the House
John McCormack (D-MA) 1963-1971
Carl Albert (D-OK) 1971-1977
Tip O'Neill (D-MA) 1977-1987
Geraldine Ferraro (D-NY) 1987-1991
Bob Michel (IL) 1991-1995
Dick Armey (TX) 1995-2003
Dennis Hastert (IL) 2003-2007
John Lewis (GA) 2007-Present

Democratic Leader
Carl Albert (OK) 1961-1971
Hale Boggs (LA) 1971-1973
Tip O'Neill (MA) 1973-1977
John McFall (CA) 1977-1979
Phil Burton (CA) 1979-1983
Tom Foley (WA) 1983-1997
John Lewis (GA) 1997-2005
John Murtha (PA) 2005-Present

Democratic Whip
Hale Boggs (LA) 1961-1971
Tip O'Neill (MA) 1971-1973
John McFall (CA) 1973-1977
John Brademas (IN) 1977-1981
Tom Foley (WA) 1981-1983
Gillis Long (LA) 1983-1985
Toney Coelho (CA) 1985-1989
David Obey (WI) 1989-1994
John Lewis (GA) 1994-1997
David Bonior (MI) 1997-2003
Bob Menendez (NJ) 2003-Present

Democratic Caucus Chairman
Dan Rostenkowski (IL) 1967-1971
Olin Teague (TX) 1971-1975
Phil Burton (CA) 1975-1977
Tom Foley (WA) 1977-1981
Gillis Long (LA) 1981-1983
Dick Gephardt (MO) 1983-1989
William Gray (PA) 1989
Steny Hoyer (MD) 1989-1995
Vic Fazio (CA) 1995-1999
Martin Frost (TX) 1999-2003
James Clyburn (SC) 2003-2007
Rahm Emmanuel (IL) 2007-Present

Democratic Caucus Secretary/Vice-Chair
Leonor Sullivan (MO) 1959-1975
Patsy Minsk (HI) 1975-1977
Shirley Chisholm (NY) 1977-1981
Geraldine Ferraro (NY) 1981-1987
Mary Rose Oakar (OH) 1987-1995
Barbara Kennelly (CT) 1995-1999
Bob Menendez (NJ) 1999-2003
John Larson (CT) 2003-Present

Republican Leader
Gerald Ford (MI) 1965-1981
Robert Michel (IL) 1981-1991
Dick Armey (TX) 1991-1995
Dick Cheney (WY) 1995-2001
Tom DeLay (TX) 2001-2005
John Boehner (OH) 2005-Present

Republican Whip
Leslie Arends (IL) 1943-1975
Bob Michel (IL) 1975-1981
Trent Lott (MI) 1981-1989
Dick Cheney (WY) 1989-1995
Newt Gingrich (GA) 1995-2001
John Boehner (OH) 2001-2005
Jack Kingston (GA) 2005-Present

Republican Conference Chairman
John Anderson (IL) 1969-1979
Samuel Devine (OH) 1979-1981
Jack Kemp (NY) 1981-1987
Dick Cheney (WY) 1987-1989
Jerry Lewis (CA) 1989-1993
John Boehner (OH) 1993-1999
J.C. Watts (OK) 1999-2003
Deborah Pryce (OH) 2003-2007
Adam Putnam (FL) 2007-Present

Republican Vice-Chairman
Jack Edwards (AL) 1979-1985
Lynn Morley Martin (IL) 1985-1989
Bill McCollum (FL) 1989-1995
Susan Molinari (NY) 1995-1997
Jennifer Dunn (WA) 1997-1999
Tillie Fowler (FL) 1999-2001
Deborah Pryce (OH) 2001-2003
Jack Kingston (GA) 2003-2005
Kay Granger (TX) 2005-Present

Republican Conference Secretary
Jack Edwards (AL) 1975-1979
Clair Burgenger (CA) 1979-1985
Robert Lagomarsino (CA) 1985-1989
Vin Weber (MN) 1989-1993
Tom DeLay (TX) 1993-1995
Barbara Vucanovich (NV) 1995-1997
Tillie Fowler (FL) 1997-1999
Deborah Pryce (OH) 1999-2001
Barbara Cubin (WY) 2001-2003
John Doolittle (CA) 2003-2007
John Carter (TX) 2007-Present

[hcallega]

Democratic Senate Leader
Mike Mansfield (MT) 1961-1977
Ted Kennedy (MA) 1977-1989
Alan Cranston (CA) 1989-1991
Al Gore (TN) 1991-1997
Chris Dodd (CT) 1997-Present

Democratic Assistant Leader
Ted Kennedy (MA) 1969-1977
Alan Cranston (CA) 1977-1989
George Mitchell (ME) 1989-1995
Wendell Ford (KY) 1995-1999
Jeff Bingaman (NM) 1999-Present

Democratic Conference Chair
Mike Mansfield (MT) 1961-1977
Ted Kennedy (MA) 1977-1989
Alan Cranston (CA) 1989-1991
Al Gore (TN) 1991-1997
Chris Dodd (CT) 1997-Present

Democratic Conference Secretary
Robert Byrd (WV) 1967-1977
Daniel Inouye (HI) 1977-1989
David Pryor (AR) 1989-1995
Barbara Mikulski (MD) 1995-2005
Debbie Stabenow (MI) 2005-2007
Patty Murray (WA) 2007-Present

Democratic Policy Committee Chairman
Mike Mansfield (MT) 1961-1977
Ted Kennedy (MA) 1977-1989
Alan Cranston (CA) 1989-1991
Al Gore (TN) 1991-1997
Byron Dorgan (ND) 1997-Present

Republican Senate Leader
Everett Dirksen (IL) 1959-September 1969
Hugh Scott (PA) September 1969-1977
Robert Griffin (MI) 1977-1979
Ted Stevens (AK) 1979-1985
Bob Dole (KS) 1985-1989
Alan Simpson (WY) 1989-1997
Trent Lott (MI) 1997-2003
Don Nickles (OK) 2003-2005
Rick Santorum (PA) 2005-2007
Lamar Alexander (TN) 2007-Present

Republican Assistant Senate Leader
Hugh Scott (PA) 1969
Robert Griffin (MI) 1969-1977
Ted Stevens (AK) 1977-1979
Howard Baker (TN) 1979-1985
Alan Simpson (WY) 1985-1989
Trent Lott (MS) 1989-1993
Don Nickles (OK) 1993-2003
Rick Santorum (PA) 2003-2005
Lamar Alexander (TN) 2005-2007
Jon Kyl (AZ) 2007-Present

Republican Conference Chairman
Margaret Chase Smith (ME) 1967-1972
Norris Cotton (NH) 1973-1974
Carl Curtis (NE) 1975-1978
Bob Packwood (OR) 1978-1980
James McClure (ID) 1981-1984
John Chafee (RI) 1985-1990
Thad Cochran (MS) 1991-1996
Connie Mack III (FL) 1997-2001
Rick Santorum (PA) 2001-2003
Lamar Alexander (TN) 2003-2005
Jon Kyl (AZ) 2005-2007
Kay Bailey Hutchinson (TX) 2007-Present

Republican Conference Vice-Chair
Milton Young (ND) 1956-1971
Norris Cotton (NH) 1971-1972
Wallace Bennett (UT) 1973-1974
Robert Stafford (VT) 1976
Clifford Hansen (WY) 1977-1978
Jake Garn (UT) 1979-1985
Thad Cochran (MS) 1985-1991
Bob Katsen (WI) 1991-1993
Trent Lott (MI) 1993-1995
Connie Mack (FL) 1995-1997
Paul Coverdell (GA) 1997-2000
Kay Bailey Hutchinson (TX) 2000-2007
John Cornyn (TX) 2007-Present

Republican Policy Committee Chair
Gordon Allot (CO) 1969-1972
John Tower (TX) 1972-1977
Howard Baker (TN) 1977-1979
Bob Dole (KS) 1979-1985
William Armstrong (CO) 1985-1990
Don Nickles (OK) 1991-1996
Larry Craig (ID) 1996-2003
Jon Kyl (AZ) 2003-2005
John Ensign (NV) 2005-Present

[hcallega]

Now a list of all of the members of the United States Senate as of 2007:

Alabama

Jim Folsom (D) 1980-Present
Richard Shelby (D) 1995-Present

Alaska

Ted Stevens (R) 1968-Present
Tony Knowles (D) 2005-Present

Arizona

Jon Kyl (R) 1995-Present
Jim Kolbe (R) 2001-Present

Arkansas

Bill Clinton (D) 1997-Present
Blanche Lincoln (D) 1999-Present

California

Diane Feinstein (D) 1992-Present
Cruz Bustamante (D) 2005-Present

Colorado

Wayne Allard (R) 1997-Present
Ken Salazar (D) 2005-Present

Connecticut

Lowell Weicker (R) 1971-Present
Chris Dodd (D) 1981-Present

Delaware

Joe Biden (D) 1973-Present
Tom Carper (D) 2001-Present

Florida

Bob Graham (D) 1987-Present
Bill Nelson (D) 2001-Present

Georgia

Guy Millner (R) 1997-Present
Zell Miller (D) 2000-Present

Hawaii

Daniel Inouye (D) 1963-Present
Daniel Akaka (D) 1990-Present

Idaho

Larry Craig (R) 1991-Present
Mike Crapo (R) 1999-Present

Illinois

Dick Durbin (D) 1997-Present
Dan Hynes (D) 2005-Present

Indiana

Dick Lugar (R) 1975-Present
Evan Bayh (D) 2001-Present

Iowa

Chuck Grassley (R) 1981-Present
Tom Harkin (D) 1985-Present

Kansas

Sam Brownback (R) 1996-Present
Pat Roberts (R) 1997-Present

Kentucky

Dee Huddleston (D) 1973-Present
Scotty Baesler (D) 1999-Present

Louisiana

Woody Jenkins (R) 1997-Present
David Vitter (R) 2005-Present

Maine

Olympia Snowe (R) 1995-Present
Susan Collins (R) 1997-Present

Maryland

Barbara Mikulski (D) 1987-Present
Ben Cardin (D) 2007-Present

Massachusetts

Ted Kennedy (D) 1962-Present
Joseph Kennedy (D) 2003-Present

Michigan

Carl Levin (D) 1979-Present
Debbie Stabenow (D) 2001-Present

Minnesota

Walter Mondale (D) 1964-Present
Amy Klobuchar (D) 2007-Present

Mississippi

Thad Cochran (R) 1978-Present
Trent Lott (R) 1989-Present

Missouri

Kit Bond (R) 1987-Present
Jean Carnahan (D) 2001-Present

Montana

Max Baucus (D) 1978-Present
Conrad Burns (R) 1989-Present

Nebraska

Chuck Hagel (R) 1997-Present
Ben Nelson (D) 2001-Present

Nevada

John Ensign (R) 1999-Present
Jim Gibbons (R) 2001-Present

New Hampshire

Judd Gregg (R) 1993-Present
John Sununu (R) 2003-Present

New Jersey

Bob Franks (R) 2001-Present
Jon Corzine (D) 2003-Present

New Mexico

Pete Domenici (R) 1973-Present
Jeff Bingaman (D) 1983-Present

New York

Nita Lowery (D) 2001-Present
Chuck Schumer (D) 2005-Present

North Carolina

Elizabeth Dole (R) 2003-Present
John Edwards (D) 1999-Present

North Dakota

Byron Dorgan (D) 1992-Present
John Hoeven (R) 2005-Present

Ohio

George Voinovich (R) 1999-Present
Sherrod Brown (D) 2007-Present

Oklahoma

Jim Inhofe (R) 1995-Present
Brad Carson (D) 2005-Present

Oregon

Gordon Smith (R) 1996-Present
Ron Wyden (D) 1997-Present

Pennsylvania

Bob Casey (D) 2005-Present
Allyson Schwartz (D) 2007-Present

Rhode Island

Jack Reed (D) 1997-Present
Lincoln Chafee (R) 1999-Present

South Carolina

Lindsey Graham (R) 2003-Present
Jim DeMint (R) 2005-Present

South Dakota

Larry Pressler (R) 1979-Present
John Thune (R) 2005-Present

Tennessee

Harold Ford Jr. (D) 2007-Present
Lamar Alexander (R) 1997-Present

Texas

Kay Bailey Hutchinson (R) 1995-Present
John Cornyn (R) 2003-Present

Utah

Orrin Hatch (R) 1977-Present
Bob Bennett (R) 1993-Present

Vermont

Bernie Sanders (I) 2007-Present
Jim Douglas (R) 2005-Present

Virginia

John Warner (R) 1979-Present
Mark Warner (D) 2001-Present

Washington

Patty Murray (D) 1993-Present
Rick Larsen (D) 2007-Present

West Virginia

Robert Byrd (D) 1959-Present
Jay Rockefeller (D) 1985-Present

Wisconsin

Herb Kohl (D) 1989-Present
Russ Feingold (D) 2001-Present

Wyoming

Mike Enzi (R) 1997-Present
John Barrasso (R) 2007-Present

[hcallega]

And now finally a ranking of Senators from most liberal to most conservative.

Bernie Sanders (I) VT
Cruz Bustamante (D) CA
Ted Kennedy (D) MA
Walter Mondale (D) MN
Chris Dodd (D) CT
Tom Harkin (D) IA
Daniel Inouye (D) HI
Barbara Mikulski (D) MD
Sherrod Brown (D) OH
Nita Lowery (D) NY
Debbie Stabenow (D) MI
Daniel Akaka (D) HI
Carl Levin (D) MI
Jack Reed (D) RI
Dick Durbin (D) IL
Allyson Schwartz (D) PA
John Edwards (D) NC
Dan Hynes (D) IL
Ben Cardin (D) MD
Patty Murray (D) WA
Joe Biden (D) DE
Chuck Schumer (D) NY
Amy Klobuchar (D) MN
Jay Rockefeller (D) WV
Byron Dorgan (D) ND
Bob Casey (D) PA
Rick Larsen (D) WA
Ron Wyden (D) OR
Diane Feinstein (D) CA
Joseph Kennedy (D) MA
Jon Corzine (D) NJ
Jean Carnahan (D) MO
Robert Byrd (D) WV
Ken Salazar (D) CO
Bill Clinton (D) AR
Jim Folsom (D) AL
Bill Nelson (D) FL
Jeff Bingaman (D) NM
Bob Graham (D) FL
Evan Bayh (D) IN
Tony Knowles (D) AK
Mark Warner (D) VA
Scotty Baesler (D) KY
Max Baucus (D) MT
Lincoln Chafee (R) RI
Blanche Lincoln (D) AR
Lowell Weicker (R) CT
Olympia Snowe (R) ME
Harold Ford Jr. (D) TN
Susan Collins (R) ME
Tom Carper (D) DE
Jim Douglas (R) VT
Brad Carson (D) OK
Dee Huddleston (D) KY
George Voinovich (R) OH
Ben Nelson (D) NE
Gordon Smith (R) OR
Ted Stevens (R) AK
Bob Bennett (R) UT
Jim Kolbe (R) AZ
Bob Franks (R) NJ
Thad Cochran (R) MI
Zell Miller (D) GA
Dick Lugar (R) IN
John Warner (R) VA
Orrin Hatch (R) UT
Pete Domenici (R) NM
Kit Bond (R) MO
Judd Gregg (R) NH
Chuck Grassley (R) IA
Elizabeth Dole (R) NC
Guy Millner (R) GA
Jim Gibbons (R) NV
John Sununu (R) NH
Lindsey Graham (R) SC
Richard Shelby (D) AL
Sam Brownback (R) KS
Kay Bailey Hutchinson (R) TX
Trent Lott (R) MI
John Ensign (R) NV
Lamar Alexander (R) TN
Larry Pressler (R) SD
Wayne Allard (R) CO
Larry Craig (R) ID
Mike Crapo (R) ID
Pat Roberts (R) KS
Conrad Burns (R) MT
John Thune (R) SD
Chuck Hagel (R) NE
John Hoeven (R) ND
Woody Jenkins (R) LA
John Cornyn (R) TX
Mike Enzi (R) WY
Jon Kyl (R) AZ
John Barrasso (R) WY
Jim Inhofe (R) OK
David Vitter (R) LA
Jim DeMint (R) SC

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

Wait, so why did McCain lose AZ? Hispanic turnout?

[hcallega]

Wait, so why did McCain lose AZ? Hispanic turnout?

Yeah. Considering he barely won AZ in 2008 in real life I feel that a charismatic hispanic like Cisneros would be able to just edge him out.

[Historico]

So are you going to do the next round of updates like in a primary by primary style or you doing 2008, in the Calendar Date format you started intially?

[hcallega]

So are you going to do the next round of updates like in a primary by primary style or you doing 2008, in the Calendar Date format you started intially?

More the primary by primary style so that I can go into a lot of detail for each one. This is the part of the TL that I was most excited to do, so expect a lot of detail and fun!

[hcallega]

2008 Presidential Election

Introduction

It is the fall of 2006, and President McCain has been dealt a serious blow with the results of the Midterm Elections. The Democratic Party is riding a high tide, and many prospective candidates see an opportunity to capture the White House. On the Republican side of the aisle there is also optimism, but for a different reason. President McCain is personally quite popular, and despite the national shift back towards the left, most Americans believe that the nation is on the right track. It already seems clear that the 2008 Presidential Election will be an exciting and intense one.

The Issues

As with any presidential election, there are a slew of issues that will dominate the race.

High Profile Issues

Health Care: In 1973, Americare was created to provide health insurance to all Americans through a combination of a government-funded public option, an employer and personal mandate, and industry reforms. Ever since, health care has been a major issue. Conservatives have called for an end to the program, specifically targeting the issue of how much money Americare drains from the budget. Liberals have been quick to defend Americare and in many cases have advocated expanding it into a single-payer program. In 2005 a report came out that stated that Americare was not fiscally solvent and could go broke if not reformed significantly in the next 20 years. That report once again shoved Americare into the center stage of American politics.

Immigration: Despite President's McCain and Gore passing immigration reform, there has yet to be a significant overhaul to the current system. Illegal immigration is still very high, and conservatives are growing more and more supportive of a highly militarized border. Others are calling for deportation. On the left, there is growing support for amnesty, or at the very least a strong and practical pathway to citizenship. This issue is of particular importance in the Southwest, a key swing area in the 2008 election.

Israel and the Middle East: Following the war in Lebanon, the situation in the Middle East once again reared it's ugly head. Tensions between Syria (and it's ally Iraq) and Israel are incredibly high, and war seems imminent. Also, Israel and Iran seem on the brink of a potential conflict over Iran attempting to acquire a nuclear arsenal. The Palestinian Question is still present as well, and any regional conflict will carry with it heavy implications on the presidential race.

War on Terror: Despite the death of Osama bin Laden, Al Qaeda and other terrorist organizations have continued to launch attacks against western and secular nations. Attacks in London and Madrid have been the most lethal examples. However now that the US occupation of Afghanistan is over there is no obvious battlefield for the war, and there is a great degree of concern over how to go about pursuing the terrorist networks.

Medium Profile Issues

Environment: Global Warming is still a major concern, especially among environmentalists. Business groups are frustrated with increased government regulation over them, and conservatives are proposing rolling back many of the Gore-McCain era regulations.

Personal Tax: As always, income tax is a major issue for many Americans. Liberals believe in raising taxes on the rich to pay for government programs, while conservatives support lowering them to stimulate growth.

Low-Profile Issues

Abortion: Major concern lies over whether the public option should be able to cover elective abortions. Also the Supreme Court is hearing arguments over whether or not the partial birth abortion ban is constitutional.

Balanced Budget: Concerns over the deficit have diminished under President's McCain and Gore, but conservatives still seek a balanced budget constitutional amendment.

Business Tax: Liberals support a higher corporate business tax, conservatives support a lower one.

Education: Liberals support more funding for public schools and after school programs, conservative support vouchers and decentralizing the education system.

Energy: Liberals want greater investment in alternative energy, conservatives want little government involvement or equal investment in fossil fuels as alternative fuels.

Gun Control: The Supreme Court case over D.C.'s handgun ban has raised concerns over this issue. Liberals generally support gun control, while conservatives oppose it on constitutional grounds.

Homeland Security: With the creation of the Department of Homeland security, a whole new issue was created. Conservatives want to see the Department focusing primarily on terrorism, while liberals want to see more of it's funds going towards natural disasters such as Hurricane Katrina.

Iran: The issue of a potentially nuclear Iran has become increasingly pertinent. Though much of the fear in this arena has to do with Israel, Iran itself has also become a concern. Both sides of the aisle want tougher restrictions, but some conservatives have proposed a preemptive strike against Iran.

Outsourcing: The outsourcing of jobs has become a concern for many American workers. Liberals have proposed ending tax breaks to companies that outsource jobs, while some conservatives have accepted outsourcing. A third group of isolationists oppose all outsourcing.

Same-Sex Marriage: So far, the fight over gay marriage has been one on a state level. But there is an increasing groundswell for a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage. At the same time, many gay marriage supporters have argued that it should either be left up to the states or constitutionally supported.

Social Security: Much like the issue of health care, many conservative see Social Security as going broke. Therefore many want to privatize it. However there is more support to strengthen it with greater funding and internal reforms.

Unions: With more and more jobs being outsourced, Union leaders want to see the passage of the Employee Free Choice Act, which would abolish the secret ballot. This is more an issue for the left, as few on the right seek or expect the support of organized labor.

The Candidates

Biographies of each candidate will come in a following post, but here is the list of declared candidates (as of January 2007) to wet your lips:

Democrats

Senator Joseph Kennedy of Massachusetts
Senator John Edwards of North Carolina
Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani of New York
Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana
Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico
Senator Joe Biden of Delaware
Former Governor Tom Vilsack of Iowa
Representative Dennis Kucinich of Ohio

Republicans

Vice-President Fred Thompson of Tennessee
Former Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts
Former Speaker of the House of the US House of Representatives Newt Gingrich of Georgia
Former Governor Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin
Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas
Representative Tom Tancredo of Colorado

[hcallega]

Now the NEWSWEEK biographies of the Democratic candidates:

The Democrats

Senator Joseph Patrick Kennedy II of Massachusetts

How He Got Here: United States Representative representing Massachusetts's 8th Congressional District (1987-1995); Governor of Massachusetts (1999-2003); Junior United States Senator from Massachusetts (2003-Present)
Background: Kennedy is the son of former President Robert Kennedy, the patriarch of the Democratic Party. He first made political waves in 1986 when he ran for retiring Speaker Tip O'Neill's congressional district. In congress he was a strong advocate for fairer housing practices. He developed close ties with the African-American establishment, and in 1994 ran against the popular Governor William Weld for the governorship of the Bay State. He was narrowly defeated and for the next four years focused on running his non-profit energy company, Citizens Energy Cooperative. In 1998 he tried again for the Governor's mansion and this time won handedly. As governor he successfully balanced the budget and increased cooperation between the state and the City of Boston. In 2002 he won a rematch with Weld for the US senate seat that Weld had won in 1996. In the Senate, Kennedy took a backseat role, preparing for a run for the White House in 2008.
Path to the Nomination: If Kennedy wants to win the nomination he's going to have to deal with the skeletons in his past. He was convicted of reckless driving in 1973, and had a messy divorce that was ultimately annulled in 1996. As the frontrunner he must run hard in every state, and ultimately will have to win early on if he hopes to take the nomination. He has the support of several prominent liberal groups, as well as the Kennedy name, but will that be enough?
Ideology: Solidly liberal, though also a deficit hawk who voted for the balanced budget amendment while in congress.

Senator John Edwards of North Carolina

How He Got Here: United States Senator from North Carolina (1999-Present)
Background: Edwards spent most of his professional career as a highly sucessfull trial lawyer in North Carolina. Edwards then ran for the Senate seat occupied by Lauch Faircloth in 1999, narrowly defeating him. Edwards has a staunchly liberal voting record with a populist touch. He has actively supported policies aimed at elevating poverty, and has often positioned him to the left of Democratic leaders on economic issues.
Path to the Nomination: Edwards is the darling of the left. He is handsome, charismatic, and lacks any apparent skeletons. However many perceive him to be overly zealous in his goals and therefore potentially unelectable. Several small unions have come out in support of him, but many others are simply waiting out the storm, depriving him much needed financial aid and manpower. Edwards is investing heavily in Iowa, a state where he naturally fairs well. If he is to win the nomination he must prevail there and in South Carolina, the state of his birth. If not, he may be out of the race before Super Tuesday.
Ideology: Liberal populist who has staked himself far to the left on issues of poverty and equality.

Mayor Rudy Giuliani of New York

How He Got Here: Chair of the New York for Kennedy campaign (1972); Attorney General of New York State (1979-1993); Mayor of New York City (1994-2001)
Background: Giuliani was raised in what he refers to as "the typical New Deal family". However what was not typical was that his father was a convicted felon who served time in Sing Sing. Giuliani was an average student who studded to become a priest, but instead chose the unholy path of politics. He ran Robert Kennedy's campaign for reelection for the Presidency in New York in 1972, and made a name for himself as a tough Attorney General in the 1980s. Giuliani was arguably Mayor David Dinkins greatest critic, and was accused on inciting a police riot in the early 1990s. Giuliani defeated Dinkins by running on the Liberal Party ticket in 1993, and went on to revive New York City. The crime rate dropped significantly, and the economy was booming. On September 11th, 2001, Giuliani once again cemented his name in New York City history, as he effectively managed the recovery of the September 11th terrorist attacks. Giuliani was viewed as the hero of 9/11, whereas President McCain was seen as more aloof and distant. For his actions, Giuliani was named TIME Magazine's person of the year for 2001.
Path to the Nomination: Giuliani has perhaps the most skeletons in his closet of any candidate. He had a messy divorce and is estranged from his children. He has received a great deal of flack for appearing in drag for a commercial, and will have to deal with these issues early on if he hopes to win. His strategy is somewhat different from the rest of the candidates. Rather than contesting Kennedy early on, Giuliani is planning on erecting a firewall of sorts in Florida and Michigan, two states that have moved their primaries up early this year. He has essentially abandoned his campaign efforts in Iowa, and is only barely contesting New Hampshire. He needs Edwards to win Iowa and South Carolina, and Kennedy to under perform in New Hampshire if he hopes to gain frontrunner status. If he is going to win, he will need Kennedy to stumble so that he can be the establishment's answer to Edwards.
Ideology: Giuliani is an ideological hodge-podge. He is pro-life, yet strongly pro-gay rights and pro-gun control. He takes a strongly 'law and order' stance on crime, and is a strong supporter of the death penalty. On the economy he favors many traditionally Democratic policies, yet calls himself "pro-growth" and supports NAFTA and deregulation. He is also a strong supporter of the War on Terror and has even stated that President McCain "did not go far enough" in bringing the war to Al Qaeda. But perhaps his most damning view is that he has had a bad record with the unions as Mayor of New York City, an issue he will have to deal with if he is to win their support.

Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana

How He Got Here: Secretary of State for Indiana (1986-1989); Governor of Indiana (1989-1997); United States Senator from Indiana (2001-Present)
Background: Bayh comes from a political family. His father, Birch, was a solidly liberal Senator from Indiana in the 1960s and '70s. He was a close ally of President Robert Kennedy, and payed the price as he was defeated by Dick Lugar in 1974. His son Evan is more of a centrist. As Governor he balanced the budget consistently, and as Senator has often been a moderate swing vote. However he has also tacked to the left in his support for Rust Belt issues such as steel tariffs and farming issues.
Path to the Nomination: For Bayh to win he will need to push to the left. His moderate views on a slew of issues may distance him from the rest of the pack, it will be hard to win while advocating pro-business and pro-"heartland" policies. Nonetheless, these views may help in Iowa, a state that he must win if he has any hope of winning the nomination.
Ideology: Center-left, though more moderate on government spending and programs and more liberal on the economy and social issues.

[hcallega]

Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico

How He Got Here: United States Representative, New Mexico's 3rd District (1983-1997); United States Secretary of Energy (1997-2001); Governor of New Mexico (2003-Present)
Background: Richardson is arguably the most qualified candidate in the Democratic field. after serving in the House for many years, Richardson was President Al Gore's choice to be Secretary of Energy. Richardson later ran for Governor of New Mexico, and has become arguably the most powerful Hispanic politician in the country. He is a political moderate, but is also a leading advocate of alternative energy and immigration reform.
Path to the Nomination: Richardson is in an awkward position. While not a frontrunner, he represents one of the biggest groups of the Democratic Party (Hispanic voters). Richardson doesn't play well in the early primary states, and may be positioning himself for a Vice-Presidential nod rather than the nomination itself. If he is to win the top spot however, he will need to emphasize his support for alternative energies including Ethanol in Iowa. It will be a tough task, but if he can make it to Super Tuesday and beyond, he has a fighting chance.
Ideology: Centrist, but a strong supporter of alternative energy.

Senator Joe Biden of Delaware

How He Got Here: Member of the New Castle County Council (1971-1973); United States Senator from Delaware (1973-Present)
Background: Biden is one of the last old pol's. He is a strong supporter of labor and a strong believer in working your way up the ladder. He has paved a record in the Senate of compromise and strong liberal efforts. At the same time, few see him as Presidential material, and even fewer expected him to run. No matter what the results are, Biden has already ensured that he will have a strong legacy both in and out of Delaware.
Path to the Nomination: Biden's chances of winning the nomination are slim to none. Rather many see 2008 as a going out party for Biden, who is also considering whether or not he will run for reelection in Delaware. Much like Richardson, Biden may be aiming for the second spot on the ticket, and certainly has the experience to balance one of the less Washington savy frontrunners.
Ideology: A traditional "labor liberal" who takes liberal economic and domestic views, but is somewhat of a social conservative.

Governor Tom Vilsack of Iowa

How He Got Here: Governor of Iowa (1999-2007)
Background: Vilsack is the consomate Corn Belt Governor. He comes from a state that has a habit of electing center-left officials, and Vilsack is no different. His focus has been on keeping farm prices stable and has been an outspoken advocate of ethanol. In 2004 he was  a finalist for the Vice-Presidential spot for the Democrats, and many see him as the perfect balance to a certain liberal northeasterner this time around.
Path to the Nomination: Iowa, Iowa, Iowa. If Vilsack wants to win he's going to need to win his homestate, the first contest in the 2008 campaign. Oddly enough, it may be more beneficial if he wins a close race. If he is leading by a large margin, many of the frontrunners may pull out and focus on New Hampshire. But if he wins a tight contest against Kennedy or Edwards then he can say that he has beaten a serious candidate, and that he can win in November. Nonetheless, it will be an uphill battle for the Governor.
Ideology: Center-left with a particular affinity for farm issues.

Representative Dennis Kucinich of Ohio

How He Got Here: Member of the Cleveland City Council (1970-1975, 1981-1982); Mayor Cleveland (1977-1979); State Senator from Ohio (1994-1996); United States Representative from Ohio's 10th Congressional District (1997-Present)
Background: Dennis the Menace has long been a staunchly liberal voice in American politics. As Mayor of Cleveland he was so liberal that a Republican (current Ohio Senator George Voinovich) succeeded him. In Congress, Kucinich has been the closest thing to a true Social Democrat, and has often broken with his party if he feels that a bill is not far enough to the left. Nonetheless, he has built up a solid grassroots base of anti-war liberals and, strangely enough, pro-life advocates who see his 100% Pro-Life rating as a true commitment to the movement.
Path to the Nomination: Not happening. There is no way that Kucinich can win the nomination. But he will likely be in it until the end, hacking at whoever is in the driver's seat. A sucessfull Kucinich candidacy would be to push the party further to the left.
Ideology: Far-left and more in line with the European Social Democratic Party's then America's Democratic Party. Strangely, he is 100% Pro-Life.

[Historico]

Awesome, I loved the little Bio's, this is shapping up to be one interesting Presidential Election...Now for the Republicans!!!

[hcallega]

That last one took a lot out of me. I'm not going to do the GOP in as much detail, basically just a little summary for each candidate:
Vice-President Fred Thompson

• Offices Held: Chief of Staff for President McCain (2001-2005); VPOTUS (2005-Present)
• Position in Race: Frontrunner
• Ideology: Conservative, but with a few moderate views on issues such as civil rights and abortion

Former Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts

• Offices Held: Governor of Massachusetts (2003-2007)
• Position in Race: Strong in the northeast and a favorite of Rockefeller Republicans
• Ideology: Centrist, with liberal social views

Former Whip Newt Gingrich of Georgia

• Offices Held: United States Representative from Georgia's 6th Congressional District (1979-2001); Republican House Whip (1995-2001)
• Position in Race: Strong among fiscal conservatives, and seen as a darkhorse favorite.
• Ideology: Neoconservative

Secretary Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin

• Offices Held: Governor of Wisconsin (1987-2001); Secretary of Homeland Security (2001-Present)
• Position in Race: Second tier candidate who some think will only sap votes from Romney
• Ideology: Moderate across the board

Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas

• Offices Held: Congressional Representative From Kansas's 2nd Congressional District (1995-1996); Senator from Kansas (1996-Present)
• Position in Race: Second tier candidate popular with the religious right
• Ideology: Social conservative

Representative Tom Tancredo of Colorado

• Offices Held: Congressional Representative from Colorado's 6th District (1999-Present)
• Position in Race: Third tier candidate popular with anti-immigration groups
• Ideology: Paleoconservative

[hcallega]

The rest of the election will be told from the perspective of THE MAKING OF THE PRESIDENT: 2008 by Rick Perlstein. Perlstein followed Joe Kennedy and told the campaign from his perspective.

CHAPTER 2: To Iowa We Go

Kennedy stepped off of his campaign jet to a roaring crowd of onlookers. He placed his hand over his eyes to avoid the glare of the sun as he fumbled around his pockets for his sun glasses. To the crowd this appeared as a salute, and the evening news would tear him up over it. After all, Kennedy had never served his country. He had never claimed to, deferring most of the foreign policy questions to his staff who fed him the talking points which he in turn spit out like a pro. This time around he had one of the best: Senator John Glenn. Glenn was an old friend of his father's and had been there when Sirhan Sirhan had been so close to taking his life.

"There was a bond that we had; a bond that was created out of that chaos. I've been shot at before, and I know how horrific it can be. But to be shot at in a hotel kitchen...man that's something entirely different."

Glenn had benefited greatly from his friendship with Bobby. His endorsement had helped catapult him to the Democratic nomination in 1980, and even though he had lost the general it had cemented his legacy as a national political figure. Now he was paying his dues and helping Bobby's kid get one step further; to the White House. The same building where Glenn had visited his father and uncle so many years ago.

As Kennedy proceeded down the stairs to the tarmac he saw a mostly young crowd. There were a few elderly who remembered his father, and a few blue-collar types who understood that this man's dad understood them, but other than that it was mostly college kids. Kids who wanted to say that they had voted for a Kennedy; that they were responsible for electing a piece of American royalty. They were so desperate to touch him, to get a piece of him. He shook a few hands and quickly proceeded to the terminal.

Kennedy's team followed him off the plane. First was Glenn, followed by former South Dakota Senator and 1984 Presidential Nominee George McGovern, another honorary Kennedy. Then came the campaign staff, with bluetooths in their ears and blackberrys in their hands. There was Bob Shrum, Kennedy's campaign manager. He had been Uncle Ted's chief speechwriter when he was Majority Leader. The petite Robert Reich was Kennedy's economic adviser and also trailed along, while the rest of the young and energetic campaign staff dwarfed him.

Kennedy's campaign was pretty standard fair for Iowans. While he carried a rockstar mentality with him wherever he went, the average Iowa farmer of industrial worker was more interested in what he had to say about the issues then what he had to say about "a resurgence of hope" or "the politics of change". Much like his father before him, Kennedy understood where his strengths and weaknesses were. He wasn't a prairie populist; he knew little about farming issues other than "it seems to me, a Senator from New England, that agribusiness is a little too powerful these days." Kennedy mixed his usual stump speech with some humor: "Forty years ago my father campaigned in states like South Dakota and Nebraska. He didn't know much about farmers or their issues. I'd like to believe that I know a little bit more, but I'm not going to lie to you. Honestly I don't know the details about ethanol or crop prices. But I know what my gut tells me, and that's that small farmers like you folks are in a pinch. If you caucus for me I can guarantee you one thing: I'll listen. I'll listen to Tom Harkin and Tom Vilsack. I'll listen to George McGovern, whose standing behind me today. Heck, I'll even listen to Chuck Grassley if he'll have me!"

Kennedy knew well that he would have to campaign hard to win Iowa. While he held a commanding lead nationally, Iowa was one of only a handful of states which weren't strongly in his column. This was a state which John Edwards had invested heavily in. He had attempted to transform himself into a prairie populist and had developed a refined and targeted farm plan. Then there was Governor Vilsack. The voters here were smart enough to not simply rally to their homestate's governor, but he stood in solid position. Evan Bayh was in surprisingly weak shape, while Rudy Giuliani had some support but had essentially avoided the state. Therefore it would be Kennedy v. Edwards.

Kennedy's campaign focused on swinging through rural Iowa, not simply relying on the candidates strengths in college campuses and Des Moines. Kennedy campaigned hard, and grew familiar with the issues that the voters here cared the most about. They weren't big McCain fans, and the large Catholic population warmly received the Bay State Senator. In the debates, Kennedy and Edwards would come to agreement on most national issues, but duked it out over issues of local importance.

"What Senator Edwards seems to have ignored is that the way that the farm bill is currently set up is not helping Iowans. I voted for the bill and against President McCain's veto because it does do some good, and it does some very necessary things. But we need a better designed bill for the future that incentivises alternative energy and helps small farmers. Simply saying that you'll increase subsidies doesn't mean a thing. There need to be incentives, not just more money."

"Senator Kennedy's a good man, and he's spent a lot of time here in Iowa. But he fails to understand that these voters want action and not just talk. You've openly said that you're focus is not on rural issues. But I hate to break it to you Senator: farms are America's heartland, and to ignore them is to ignore a fundamental piece of America's cultural and economic heritage."

The polls showed an incredibly close race, and for Kennedy a win was not necessary. All he needed to do was push Edwards to the brink financially so that when they went to Kennedy's firewall in New Hampshire he could lay down the hammer. Heading into Caucus Day it seemed clearer and clearer that Kennedy would be able to deal the Edwards campaign an deafening blow in America's heartland.

Final Results for the Iowa Caucuses

Senator Joseph Kennedy of Massachusetts: 23.5%, 24 Delegates
Senator John Edwards of North Carolina: 23.3%, 21 Delegates
Governor Tom Vilsack of Iowa: 13.1%
Mayor Rudy Giuliani of New York: 13%
Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico: 11.6
Senator Joe Biden of Delaware: 5.6%
Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana: 2.9%
Representative Dennis Kucinich of Ohio: 0.8%


(Red=Kennedy, Blue=Edwards)

Kennedy's victory was significant for two reasons. The first was that it proved that he WAS the true frontrunner. The second reason was that it shot a hole in Edwards balloon. From now on he would be the underdog, and questions raged as to how long he could stay in the race. Another major story was Senator Evan Bayh's collapse. Bayh had been projected by many as the race's dark horse. But after garnering just 3% of the vote, any hopes for a moderate at the top of the ticket were dashed. Bayh, Biden, and Vilsack would all withdraw from the race following Iowa, significantly shrinking the size of the field

[Historico]

Intersting...Seems like it's going to be a Kenndy v. Edwards slugfest all the way to the convention, which should prepare Joe for an unevitably uphill battle against the GOP nominee in the General...Keep it comming HC

[hcallega]

FYI I will be doing results for the GOP primaries, but only after I'm done doing the Democratic side.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hampshire Primary

After winning an upset victory in Iowa, Kennedy looked to seal up frontrunner status with a victory in New Hampshire. "This is our firewall. We believed that we would win here before Iowa, and were confident that the voters here won't leave us disappointed." (Bob Shrum) However before he could claim victory, Kennedy would have to do away with Rudy Giuliani and the always difficult Edwards. Giuliani polled well here, and many saw him as a potential threat to defeat the frontrunner. After all, he was a centrist and spoke well to the independence of the state. Much like Iowa, Kennedy would have to deal with yet another difficult test.

Kennedy's strategy in New Hampshire was quite different than that in Iowa. Whereas in the Hawkeye State Kennedy had focused on wooing skeptical rural voters, in New Hampshire he would have to hold on to independent minded New Englanders. Many of the voters here were descended from the nation's first families. They were WASPS, and New Hampshire had some of the very last English-purality counties in the country. They were skeptical of the Irish-Catholic pols of Massachusetts, and while many of the younger voters were no longer so attached to that past, it would not be a white wash for JPK.

Kennedy would focus his efforts on emphasizing several issues. The first was his support for fiscal responsibility, as he attacked his fellow Democrats as "The same old same old. They believe in tax-and-spend politics, not smart spending. Believe me, there is a difference." Kennedy would also rehash some of his Iowa message as he appealed to farmers and rural voters. These dairy cow tycoons were not as concerned about alternative energy, but were very worried about the overall shift away from small farms to big ones. Kennedy answered their pleas by stating that "If elected President I will not be a slave to the big farms. I'll remember you, and if I don't do what you want you can always give me hell when I'm back in Massachusetts."

Kennedy would target Giuliani throughout the race. He attacked Rudy for his lack of support from Unions, and as a "reckless prosecutor who had little respect for subtlety." Most famously, Kennedy would take a look back at Giuliani's past campaigns: "When he was running for Mayor of New York, Mr. Giuliani stated that he had been a "Robert Kennedy"-style Attorney General. Well I can tell you one thing: When my father got angry he could be a real SOB. But he got angry at people who deserved it. Mr. Giuliani's record showed that anyone in his way, no matter how innocent, would pay the price."

When the polls closed, Kennedy would take home the Granite State with a far greater victory then he had in Iowa. His base of college students, labor unions, and now smaller farmers helped deliver him a major victory that distanced himself from the rest of the pack.



Senator Joseph Kennedy of Massachusetts: 46%, 14 Delegates
Mayor Rudy Giuliani of New York: 27%, 8 Delegates
Senator John Edwards of North Carolina: 14%
Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico: 12%
Representative Dennis Kucinich of Ohio: 1 %

Following the results, Governor Richardson withdrew, citing an inability to "just quite breakthrough".

[hcallega]

The Big Four

The Following is from the Book GAME CHANGER

Following Kennedy's victories in New Hampshire and Iowa, the Democratic Party began to anticipate another Kennedy in the White House. Wherever he went, Candidate Kennedy was greeted with raucous crowds chanting "JPK! JPK! JPK!" It was all he could do to calm down the impassioned voters. In many ways he had to. Criticism was flowing in from both the GOP and Kennedy's opponents that his campaign had taken on a rock star persona. Giuliani was perhaps the most critical stating "We don't elect celebrities to the Presidency...(Kennedy) sets a dangerous precedent for turning this thing into a pure popularity contest where Paris Hilton and Brad Pitt square off for the voters approval."

Kennedy did not refute the rock star charges and instead did his best to keep on track with his campaign. Swinging through Nevada he picked up the support of the SEIU and spoke to predominantly Hispanic crowds: "My father has often praised Cezar Chavez. He considered him not just an ally but a friend. Today I reach out to you and ask for your friendship. Together we can end the racism, fear, and hate aimed at migrant workers and all minorities in this great nation. We did it once before, and we can do it again."

By this point Kennedy's primary opponent for the nomination had become Giuliani. He had considerable support from moderate and conservative Democrats who saw him as a preferable alternative to "another Kennedy". Rather than focus on winning over blue collar white, Giuliani instead focused on suburban voters. Drawing on the fears of a demagogue in the White House, Giuliani often spoke of "the fears of middle class America. They don't want vague promises made to raving crowds. They want action, and concrete ideas on how to make our country a better place." At this time Edwards was the third candidate, primarily drawing support from the left-wing of the Democratic Party. As the only 100% Pro-Choice candidate left, he also had support from many women's groups, though NARAL refused to endorse him.

The results in Nevada were not surprising. Kennedy would come away with a big win, with Rudy in second and Edwards in third. Despite the back-to-back third place finishes, Edwards pledged to stay in the race at least until the South Carolina Primary (his birth state). Giuliani's campaign viewed this result as a victory, and were glad to win any delegates. They still saw Florida as their shot to pull ahead of Kennedy before Super Tuesday.

Nevada Democratic Primary Results

Senator Joseph Kennedy of Massachusetts: 46%, 12 Delegates
Mayor Rudy Giuliani of New York: 30%, 8 Delegates
Senator John Edwards of North Carolina: 22%, 5 Delegates
Representative Dennis Kucinich of Ohio: 1%

Moving on to South Carolina, it was clear that Edwards would need a miracle to stay alive. He was clearly the third wheel in the race, and it was becoming increasingly obvious that his best shot was to bow out with some dignity and hope for the Vice-Presidential spot (a very likely possibility). However for Giuliani South Carolina was key. There was a large number of rural and conservative Democrats, and he would need to win them to finish well. Kennedy had the African-American vote sewn up, and many black leaders hammered Rudy for his racial record as Mayor. Kennedy would distance himself from these elements, but nonetheless benefited from them. When the votes were counted one thing was clear: the dynamic of the race had not shifted, but one candidate would be headed home.

South Carolina Democratic Primary Results

Senator Joseph Kennedy of Massachusetts: 52%, 29 Delegates
Mayor Rudy Giuliani of New York: 30%, 16 Delegates
Senator John Edwards of North Carolina: 14%
Representative Dennis Kucinich of Ohio: 1%

Following the South Carolina results, Edwards withdrew from the race stating "Unfortunately we were not sucessfull in our mission in this campaign. However our mission to end poverty in America will go on, and we will continue the fight for equality for all Americans. Senator Kennedy has always embraced that goal, and it is because of that that I endorse his candidacy."

Going into the Michigan and Florida primaries, the race was clearly in Kennedy's favor. Giuliani would need a win in Florida to stay alive, and Kennedy was already building up an impressive lead in the delegate count. Without Edwards in the race, Kennedy would only be helped further .

Michigan was a natural state for Kennedy to do well in. Despite lacking major union support, he did well among blue-collar whites and was dominant among blacks. However many voters in Michigan still qualified as "backlash voters", and would be prime targets for Giuliani. It was at this time that the key union support would kick in, as the UAW announced that it would endorse Kennedy. Despite the Teamsters offering their support to Giuliani, Kennedy would still receive a large bounce in the polls. Therefore, the Bay State Senators win was not surprising at all.

Michigan Democratic Primary Results

Senator Joseph Kennedy of Massachusetts: 65%, 87 Delegates
Mayor Rudy Giuliani of New York: 31%, 41 Delegates
Representative Dennis Kucinich of Ohio: 2%

Kennedy's win made any chance of Rudy winning a long-shot. He pledged to make "a last stand" in Florida, and even received the endorsement of Florida's Governor, Charlie Crist. However it would not be enough as America's Mayor would pay the price for limiting his campaign resources in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Florida Democratic Primary Results

Senator Joseph Kennedy of Massachusetts: 59%, 113 Delegates
Mayor Rudy Giuliani of New York: 38%, 72 Delegates
Representative Dennis Kucinich of Ohio: 3%

Following the results, Giuliani withdrew from the race, but offered no endorsement. Kennedy would go on to win every other primary uncontested, and would have the luxury of being able to start the General Election campaign in February. Kucinich would withdraw from the race in June, stating that his goals would be better accomplished in Congress. He would endorse Kennedy.

[hcallega]

Republican Primary Results

I know that I'm not describing the story line here in detail, but basically Romney invested heavily in the first few states while Thompson ran a lackluster early campaign. However he would pull out the nomination as he began to pick up the pace while campaigning with McCain and rallying conservatives against "The Republican in Name Only, whose other name is Mitt Romney". This surge would doom Romney who would be unable to follow up his early momentum.