Talk Elections

http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/index.php/2012/02/16/iowa-poll-results-on-presidential-race-to-be-released-saturday-night

In 2008, both the first Selzer poll in February and the last Selzer poll in late October showed Obama by 17 and were far off - Obama won by 10.

But Rasmussen had a Obama+3 poll in February, so the average was about Obama+10.

I think it will be closer than that this year and predict that Santorum is about tied with Obama and Romney trails by 3-5%

I'll predict:

Obama +8 over Romney

Obama +9 over Santorum

Obama +10 over Paul

Obama +16 over Gingrich

I think Santorum will poll quite a bit better than Romney in IA, especially now.

I wish they would do a 2016 Iowa caucus poll.  The 2012 primaries won't last forever, and we need more entertainment to look forward to!

With Republicans, yes.   With everyone else.....


Obama double digits or close to it on everyone.

I doubt it. This isn't PPP doing the poll.

not quite the fanfare of the New Years Eve caucus poll.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20120218/NEWS09/120218015/Obama-trails-three-four-Republican-candidates-latest-Iowa-Poll

Obama 42 / Paul 49

Obama 44 / Santorum 48

Obama 44 / Romney 46

Obama 51 / Gingrich 37

Hmmmm. I am skeptical.

lolno

Trash poll xD

Not buying this... not at all.

PAULMENTUM!

LOL, WHAT

Transposition errors? Iowa becomes a possible GOP pickup when Minnesota is close in a Presidential race. Minnesota is almost in the blowout category.

Crosstabs or this isn't real.

Better start using "Operation Backdoor" to boost Gingrich instead of Santorum. Obama is in trouble.

I can't wait to see the reactions on Election Night when Mitt Romney is declared the 45th President of the United States of America. Hopefully it ends up like 1980: Really close polling until the end, but a landslide on Election Day.

When one poll suddenly contradicts EVERYTHING we've heard out of Iowa, and without cross-tabs to inspect... yes, I am highly sceptical. Call it critical reasoning... something you seem to operating with low levels of at the moment.

You really cannot accept how hated and most of mistrusted Romney is by the base of the GOP can you? They would rather lose with someone they like and think is like them, as opposed to risk winning with someone they don't like or trust.

Out of curiosity, what will you feel in the event that Mitt Romney loses to Obama?

Not going to happen. But I do concede that Romney might not win the GOP nomination. They will go with a sacrificial lamb if Romney does not come through between now and Super Tuesday. I believe Romney will pull through, but I would not underestimate the strength of "Operation Backdoor."

Your capacity for delusion is of Gingrich-like proportions.

I remember first seeing these results earlier tonight and literally saying "What the hell?" to myself. Maybe they should stick to polling the caucus. 

Seltzer polls are very accurate for Iowa.

In 2008, their last poll was Obama+17.

That's not accurate.

There's simply absolutely no conceivable reason why this alleged state of affairs in Iowa should be anything other than transiently the case, if even that.