who don't know don't know how to pick up a woman so they turn gay to compensate

wat

Sam is an open homophobe.

I kind of doubt he fully believes what he says. A lot of it is just trolling, IMO.

Maybe, maybe not.  You never really know, do you?

That being said, when a message is sent, one should take the message for what it is, and act accordingly.

It's certainly not okay with me.

I also really don't care about the supposed logical inconsistency between eating other animals and not dog.  That's the reason why I am an American and part of American culture thought.  Tough sh!t.

Why do so many of the young 'uns here write as though they're writing speeches for the telly?

Because they think people actually care about the crap they write.

Boehner is saying there's a 1/3 chance that Republicans lose the house. If Romney bombs worse than expected, then it's not outside the realm of possibility.

I agree with Boehner. A 67% chance  of a GOP House sounds about right to me.

Until some evidence of a wave starts presenting itself, this prediction is merely to remind incumbents to not get lazy, and in general, we should see warnings of a wave by now if one were to occur.

Romney's performance is much less important than people think vis-a-vis the House.  Senate is a different story.

Subtle anti-Apple trolling.

Why aren't they looking at the ethnic profiling charge? Is that something that could come up later?

It is a facial challenge, as opposed to an as-applied challenge, and given the text of the law itself, the government knew that it would never win a racial/ethnic profiling argument, so they did not raise it.

I pretty much think Altmire is done too.

Critz is back up to 50.3%.

75% is in. Whats left?

Critz should have the edge, but depends on what parts of Westmoreland are out.  Anyway, too close to call for now.

I think Holden is done.

61 precincts left, Critz up by almost 1600.

FYI, I'd be willing to bet a good bit of money that Critz got over 85% (heck maybe 90%) in the parts of this CD that belong to CD-12, whereas Altmire only got 70% in the parts he used to represent.  And there you have it.

Critz is back up to 50.3%.

75% is in. Whats left?

Critz should have the edge, but depends on what parts of Westmoreland are out.  Anyway, too close to call for now.

I think Holden is done.

My sig.

So what are Sarkozy's odds of survival? Maybe 1/5 or something like that?

1%.  And I'm being generous there just because the PS is guaranteed to take the wrong strategy to winning, i.e. let's run to not lose, which is the only way of losing.  A competent party and candidate would be 100% assured of election in this type of "Mickey Mouse" struggle.

I'm tempted to also say that the PS chances in 2017 are somewhere around 1% also, but that is unnecessary dick-waving.

The great irony is that Kemp was necessary in order to keep what Harrington wanted in place.  Now that the collapse of Kemp is well nigh upon us, the collapse of what Harrington wanted will follow, and quite quickly.  Don't be surprised if politicians try to raid the excesses of Kemp to keep alive what Harrington wanted as much as they can, but in the end it is all for naught.

What will follow is something quite different, btw.  Though it may "sound" similar.

Overall, it candidates running on anti-neoliberal platforms look to take about a third of the vote. And this is before the austerity thrashing Germany is about to deliver France in the next few years. After that, we'll have a real competition. Unthinkable five years ago. Unthinkable.

Well, it was certainly obvious 3 years ago, at least.

Highly unlikely Dems retake the House (>10% at best), since there appears to be no wave, Senate and Presidency are closer to 50-50, slight edge to Dems.

wtf corsica

I just thought that!

I suppose it must be a pretty common thought, throughout History and all that.

bonaparte strikes again

My own system of working out French numbers says second round would be 53-47 Hollande, which I think is what the exit poll says too.

This really reminds me that I need to start formulating my list soon.  A very quick eyeball indicates some disagreements based on my knowledge of the new maps, but I know you tend to weight variables differently than I do.  One of the big ones, I suspect, is that I tend to weight fundraising less in a Presidential year, especially in swing states.

My biggest problem, I think, is that I tend to be pretty conservative in my ratings, so I miss seats going under. And yeah, the new maps (particularly the California renumbering) are not making my predictions any easier.

Nah, you just have a slight Dem bias, as I have a slight Rep bias, but that is to be expected, and it is not so large as to skew things (we all have a bias, no matter how perfect we think we are).

Revised "exits" on Le Monde say:

Hollande 28.3%
Sarkozy 25.8%
Le Pen 19.6%
Melenchon 11.7%
Bayrou 8.7%
Others 5.9%

Good for the left now, bad for them in five years.  But who knows, maybe I'm completely wrong here. (though evidence suggests otherwise).

antenne 2

Holande 28.4
Sarkozy 25.5
Le Pen 20
Melenchon 11.7
Bayrou 8.5

Thanks.  I missed the last two.

So what I see is...

Hollande 28.4
Sarkozy 25.5
Le Pen 20

More later.

Is Atlas deathly slow, or is it just me?

Both of you.

Heh.  Good one.

Is Atlas deathly slow, or is it just me?

Even though Belgium is not a country, thank God that they're not the pussies the French are.

Updated.  I'm going to try to do the House in the next few weeks. 

In the House, Dems need to win 25 seats net to take back the majority (26 if they lose AZ-08).  My read on redistricting/2010 wave election is that Republicans won in-between 10-15 seats more than they should have in a neutral contest with the present incumbent advantage.  That being said, the Dems are probably going to have 5-10 seats taken away from them due to untimely retirements in the Deep South and map changes. The present polls highly suggest that this year will be a return to the 1996-2004 world at all levels, and not a wave year.  As such, Dem chances of winning the House should be placed at >10%, and probably >5%.
 
In the Senate, at present, Republicans would need to win 4 out of 7 tossups with Romney win or 5 out of 7 with Obama win to take back the Senate.  Maybe slightly under 50% chance of that occurring right now.  Kinda like the Presidency really.