by the way, when i started this thread, the topic of julio was named "galician and basque", NO catalonian.


===

The boardbashi do edit your post and he sayeth unto thee: watch it

[total independentism : 60%]

The Catalonian parliamentary election, 2012 was announced on 25 September 2012 and will be held on 25 November 2012. The election was called following the independence march in Barcelona on 11 September 2012 (the National Day of Catalonia) to demand independence of Catalonia and its consolidation as a sovereign state, and the failed talks between the President of Catalonia Artur Mas and Prime Minister of Spain Mariano Rajoy to give greater fiscal autonomy to Catalonia.

last poll : http://www.larazon.es/noticia/8584-el-efecto-mas-ciu-y-psc-bajan-y-suben-erc-y-pp

CIU (strongly independentist) 38% (centre-right liberals)
PSC (weakly anti-independentist) 15.8% (centre-left social-democrats)
PP (strongly anti-independentist) 13.5% (right liberals)
ERC (strongly independentist) 9.8% (left socialists)
ICV (weakly independentist) 8.9% (left ecologists)
Ciutatdans (strongly anti-independentist) 3.8% (upper class centre liberals)
PxC (strongly independentist) 3.4% (far-right)
others 6.8%



strong independentism : 51.2
weak independentism : 8.9%
total independentism : 60%
weak anti-independentism : 15.8%
strong anti--independentisme : 17.3%




The true question is : will leftist independentists voters would vote yes to the referendum organised by the future centre-right independentist government ? (and fc barcelona will be ban to spanish league ?)

In addition to the televised debates, it is suggested that the calculations made by the Centraal Planbureau(CPB) has hurt SP severely. The CPB is the Dutch Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, and it analyzed the impact on the economy that each party's programme would have. The analysis suggests that the SP plan will mean 250.000 jobs less in 2040; mainly due to the worsening of the business climate as I understand it. CPB is a part of the ministry of Economic Affairs, Agriculture and Innovation, but is fully independent as far as the contents of its work are concerned according to their website.

The biggest Dutch newspaper de Telegraaf had this "loss of 250.000 job" story at their front page that critized the SP quite a lot.

independant....

I will try to do the same work for 1997-2002 and 2012 legislatives

[why I write this thread : because french ministry of interior is the shame of civilized world concerning electoral results. Thus, in all countries you have each party, even the smallest one, results in percent, but in france, you have plenty of "misc.left", "misc.right", "independant", "others", etc.]

why I write this thread : because french ministry of interior is the shame of civilized world concerning electoral results. Thus, in all countries you have each party, even the smallest one, results in percent, but in france, you have plenty of "misc.left", "misc.right", "independant", "others", etc.



Législatives 2007   (metropolitan france, names of parties actuallised to 2012's names)
      
1   UMP   40,4 (right and centre-right liberal) (union for a popular movement)
2   PS   25,06 (social-liberal left) (socialist party)
3   MD   7,79 (modem, centre) (democratic movement)
4   PCF   4,43 (socialist) (french communist party)
5   FN   4,39 (nationalist) (national front)
6   EELV   3,3 (left-ecologism) (Europe Ecology – The Greens)
7   NPA   2,09 (trotskysm) (New Anticapitalist Party -former "Revolutionary Communist League")
8   NC   1,9 (centre-right) (new centre)
9   PRG   1,41 (social-liberal republicanism) (Radical Party of the Left)
10   MPF   1,24 (conservative right) (Movement for France )
11   LO   0,85 (trotskysm) (Workers' Struggle)
12   CPNT   0,84 (agrarian right) (Hunting, Fishing, Nature, Tradition)
13   LFA   0,58 (catch-all ecologist party) (france in action)
14   MRC   0,42 (jacobinist left) (citizen and republican movement)
15   MNR   0,38 (nationalism) (national republican movement)
16   LT   0,33 (right-wing ecologists) (the shamrock)
17   SEGA   0,31 (leftism) (solidarity, ecology, alternative left)
18   MEI   0,28 (right-wing ecologists) (independant ecologist movement)
19   CNIP   0,21 (conservative right) (national centre of independants and peasantry)
20   DLR   0,18 (neogaullist right) (arise the republic)
21   GE   0,15 (centre-right ecologism) (ecology descent)
22   POI   0,14 (trotskysm & souverainism) (independant worker party -former "workers party")
23   UDB   0,07 (regionalism -brittany) (breton democratic union)
24   USP   0,06 (regionalism- corse) (union for a political solution)
25   MHAN   0,06 (catch-all ecologism) (movement humans animals nature)
26   communistes   0,05 (orthodox communist) (communists)
27   EHB   0,04 (regionalism - basque country) (basque country yes)
28   ADS   0,04 (socialist) (alternative democracy socialism)
29   CSD   0,03 (social-democrat regionalist -corsica) (social-democratic corsica)
30   PO   0,03 (regionalist - "occitany") (occitan party)
31   CAP   0,03 (communist) (convention for a progressist alternative)
32   GSR   0,03 (left) (republican and socialist left)
33   RSD   0,03 (rachid nekkaz's left party) (social-democratic rally)
34   AL   0,03 (libertarians) (liberal alternative)
35   MARS-GR   0,02 (leftism) (movement for a republican and social alternative - republican left)
36   BI   0,02 (far-right regionalism "identitaires") (identitarian bloc)
37   PPLD   0,01 (against economic growth) (party for the decreasing)
38   MSD   0,01 (social-democratic) (social-democrat movement)
39   UDR   0,01 (conservative right in Marseilles) (republican right union)
40   PRRRS   0,01 (social-liberal republicanism, centre-right) (republican radical & radical-socialist party)
41   CDC   0,01 (regionalism - french "catalonia") (democratic convergence of catalonia)
42   PMF   0,01 (islamic) (party of muslims of france)
43   PBRZH   0,01 (regionalist - brittany) (breizh party)
44   URR   0,01 (right) (Union of Radical republicans))
45   17 parties less than 0,01%   

As for candidates, they declare what they want when they put their candidacy in the Prefecture.

Neither the Assemblée's site, nor politiquemania has what is interesting for us: is a DVG a PS-dissident or a real DVG ?
You have to know the local situation or to search for yourself

personnaly, i don't count PS/UMP dissidents as part of total voting of PS or UMP, because those votes don't count for the money each party will receive.


(but, yes, for each candidate "sans étiquette", "divers" or other horrible stuff like that, I made a search -generally with his name on google + the name of the department. Often, you found good results)

http://www.elections-legislatives.fr/index.asp

At last, all the candidates are available on this fine interactive map.

this site sucks

not because of you of course, but because of this f... ministry of interior with those "divers gauche, divers droite, autre, gnagnagna"


a little compare from this site, about 4th circonscritpion of côtes du nord
http://www.elections-legislatives.fr/candidats/02204.asp

and same circonscription but from another site :

http://www.politiquemania.com/candidatures-legislatives-2012-cotes-d-armor.html


wich give us the most "étiquettes" as possible

as usual, the result of this legislative will depend ONLY of turnout level.

High : 60 % of chance for left to lose
low : 100 % of chance for left to win

poll institutes seems on strike :/

some people give us ONE map, and hello to lot of "thanks"

I give 274455 maps, and... nothing.


je vous emmârde et je rentre à mâ mâzon

very interesting, sharif.

Are you from britanny ? (personnaly, I long lived -my mother is britton- in douarn' )

[TOO]

Yes, indeed ( and I do enjoy reading your blogs too)

me too, that's the best election blog

but really, as french, you could write it in french TOO

[74,33%]

1st presidential election of france, 1848

maps with same color key (red = 22 best results, pink=21 others best results, light blue=21 not good results, blue=22 worst results)

BONAPARTE (nationalist, autoritarian, social-wing, free-trade) 74,33%


CAVAIGNAC (conservative republican, right-wing of republican party) 19,81%


LEDRU-ROLLIN (radical republican, left-wing of republican party) 5,06%


RASPAIL (republican, socialist) 0,51 %


LAMARTINE (republicann centrist) 0,23%

Some map wich divided france between 2 zones : 50% of best results of each candidate (or each family)

PS vs UMP


PS vs FN


PS vs FDG


PS vs MD


UMP vs FN


UMP vs FDG


UMP vs MD


FN vs FDG


FN vs MD


FDG vs MD


PS' France


UMP's France


FN's France


FDG's FRANCE


MODEM's FRANCE


LEFTS's FRANCE (LO+NPA+FDG+EELV+PS)


RIGHTS's FRANCE (UMP+FN+DLR)


FAR-LEFT's FRANCE (NPA+LO+EELV+FDG)


CENTRE-LEFT's FRANCE (PS+MD)


CENTRE-RIGHT's FRANCE (UMP+MD)


CENTRIST's FRANCE (UMP+MD+PS)


ETATIST's FRANCE (FDG+FN+DLR+LO+NPA)

welcome back to old mother france, wallonia ! :mrgreen:

Colbert, in such a parliamentary situation that you outlined, with no majority on either the left or the right, what kind of government would emerge?  Would Modem work with the left or the right?

IMOO i think the modem would have worked with the left, but fight with modem vs mélenchon would have made them quickly get out

this assemby seems to me ungovernable (if this word exist in english)

[If Greece goes down, Europe goes down.]

Well, they are right.
If Greece goes down, Europe goes down.
Hard austerity isn't the solution, since it kills growth.

This domesday scenario simply isnt right. Greece is a small and insignificant part of the European economy. If Greece goes bankrupt it will of course affect general trust in the Euro, but after a while sensible, rational actors in the financial markets will come to terms with the fact, that this is an extreme case, that is not likely to replicate in important countries like Spain and Italy. There is a large element of hysteria in the reaction to the Greek crisis and a lack of understanding of the differences between long term and short term consequences.

Secondly, large parts of Europe (East and North) are not in the Euro-zone. You cant say Euro-zone = Europe.

markets are not rationnals and trust is one of the most important thing in economy.

everybody will don't care but...i had read that the royalist party of greece was forbidden to run on the election. Apparently, because they don't want to be loyal to the republican consitution.

At the same time, golden showerdawn can run... :/

just for fun (and 'cause i'm addict to make maps...) : the national assembly IF the results of the legislative would be the same as the 1st round of the presidential, and IF the voting methodology would be 100% proportionnal.

A funny assembly, IMO

Don't you think so ? ^^

It will be funny to see UMP don't call for voting against mélenchon...

[It will be interesting to see if the left can turn a minority of votes into a majority of seats.]

The potential of the right having  more support than the left is actually similar to the first round of the presidential election.  It will be interesting to see if the left can turn a minority of votes into a majority of seats.  Similar to the Conservatives in Canada, or the British Conservatives of the 1980's.

It happen in 1997 french legislative

and it will happen in 2012. UMP's electorate want an alliance, or at less a pact (?) with FN, but national boad of UMP don't want.

In any case, UMP will not split, because of the law of party financing.

SYSRISA is a joke. There is absolutely NO POSSIBILITIES to refuse the bailout AND stay in the eurozone.

At the end of the day, a choice must be made by SYRISA.

as usual, the night of the 1st round, we'll be the shame of the electoral world, we'll be a third-world country, because the ministry of interior will give the results with a lot of those f... "divers droite", "divers gauche", "divers", "others", as all others country give exact results of ALL parties, even those who scored like 0,02 %


Shame on france :/

some maps


evolution fn 1st round 1988-2012




evolution left 2d round, 1974-2012 (quartiles)



evolution left 2d round 1974-2012 (absolute)




eva joly, 1st round (quartiles*)



françois bayrou 1st round (quartiles*)



jean-luc mélenchon 1st round (quartiles*)



marine le pen 1st round (quartiles*)



nicolas sarkozy 1st round (quartiles*)



françois hollande 1st round (quartiles*)





*quartiles, but pondered by national score (upon : trying to have 2 levels of same numbers of communes ; under : trying to have 2 levels of same numbers of communes)

as said a lot of UMP leaders, UMP want to make suicide.

It's obvious than with 32%, with a left at 43-44%, only, not an alliance but an agreement of "let the first of the two going on the second round" between UMP and FN' candidates (as want a large majority of UMP's voters)


IMO, we will have a very large victory of the socialist party, in term of seats.