Summary - Sibboleth
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 Offline
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| Username: |
Realpolitik |
| Name: |
Sibboleth |
| "Oh, there thou bist" "Ay. Here I be" |
| Posts: |
52999 (15.190 per day) |
| Position: |
Moderators |
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| Gender: |
 Male |
| Age: |
N/A |
| Location: |
Y Felinheli |
| Country: |
Norway  |
| Local Time: |
May 18, 2013, 09:30:26 pm |
| Date Registered: |
October 29, 2003, 05:13:42 am |
| Last Active: |
Today at 02:29:30 pm |
| Language: |
English |
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About Me
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History postgrad (Ph.D) student. Socialist. Labour Party member. Welsh. English. Enemy of Freedom. Self-mockingly bleak Protestant. Frequent wearer of tweed ties. Owner of a truly vile sense of humour with obvious issues regarding class.
I'm in too deep to get out now. Anyone who knows how far up the rot goes must be eliminated.
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My Interests
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My interests are amusingly clichéd and predictable. Essentially I like almost everything that I could be expected to like and dislike almost everything that I could be expected to hate. This was not intentional or anything, but when I realised this fact it was far too late to turn back and so I embraced it.
Besides, I don't see the problem in thinking that The Singing Detective is the greatest thing to have ever appeared on television. That is an objective fact, not a subjective opinion.
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| Atlas Features |
| Atlas Account Linked | Yes |  | | Atlasia Wiki Page |
Realpolitik | | Atlas Weblog | Al's Blog | | Political Party | Other |
| Political Matrix Economic: |
-7.74 |
| Political Matrix Social: |
0.52 |
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Weblog: Al's Blog
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| Latest Post: Multi-seat Madness | on 2009-03-10 19:52:54 | Just to demonstrate a problem that can occur with fptp elections in multi-seat districts, the result of the 2008 municipal election in the Tredegar Central & West ward (a four seater) of Blaenau Gwent CBC:
- S.Thomas, Lab, 808
- H.L.Trollope, Lab, 740
- N.Hobbs, Lab, 712
- D.I.Morris, Lab, 691
- G.Bowen-Knight, Plaid, 587
- G.Walters, PV, 544
- W.Kenvin,LDem, 539
- D.Wilcox, PV, 516
It is obvious that the voters of Tredegar preferred all four Labour candidates to all four non-Labour candidates. And, on one level, that's all that matters. But election junkies are usually more interested in partisan support than 'owt else, election junkies like statistics and election junkies like percentages. So, what were the party totals for Tredegar Central & West? If we just add up everything we get:
- Labour, 57.4%
- PV, 20.6%
- Plaid, 11.5%
- LDem, 10.5%
The problems here are obvious. Only one party ran a full slate; two of the parties ran just one candidate. And each voter has four votes; as a result more votes were cast in this election than registered voters in the ward (and this with the usual awful turnout of a local election). One common solution to this problem is just to take an average of the votes for each party, thus:
- Labour, 30.8%
- Plaid, 24.5%
- LDem, 22.5%
- PV, 22.1%
While this method might make sense if all parties ran full slates, when one party runs four candidates and no other runs more than two, the percentages start to have little in common with the actual election result. Another common method is just to use the top candidate of each party; this method has the same problem with results like this as just doing an average and throws in a different problem (that of personal votes). A further, desperate, alternative would be to average the results of the Labour and non-Labour candidates, thus:
- Labour, 57.5%
- Non-Labour, 42.5%
The problems here are obvious as well. When given the choice, some voters always split their tickets and quite a few will only vote for a single candidate (especially if their chosen party has just one candidate). And so on.
In other words, there appears to be no easy solution to this problem, and where does that leave map-makers? A possible answer would be to abandon (more or less) winning-party maps and just map party support instead... comparing the vote of each party to the number of voters in each ward and not to the votes of other parties in the same ward. More on that at a decent hour. |
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Atlas Endorsements History
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Signature
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'Gentlemen, a desert. A place of savage reference for the good people of Ohio. A place to fear and love. A blasted region. Something to remind us what we hewed out of. A place without malls. An Other for Ohio's Self. Cacti and scorpions and the sun bearing down. Desolation. A place for people to wander alone. To reflect. Away from everything. Gentlemen, a desert.' |
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