Japan General Discussion: Abe Carries On

[jaichind]

Koike resigns as head of HP. 

Can't help but find hilarious how things turned for Koike given the level of hype some months (even weeks) ago.

What is funny is I saw this coming.  I wrote back in July how she can make it to the top. The first point I made was "She has to avoid the Hashimoto trap of trying to go into national politics too early."  She went on to make that mistake.  It seems her governorship of Tokyo is now most likely ruined as well.

What's a realistic path for Koike to become Prime Minister?

It is not easy.  She has to avoid the Hashimoto trap of trying to go into national politics too early.  I would imagine the path is

1) She stays focused on Tokyo politics and gets a bunch of policy wins including a successful 2020 Olympics
2) 2018 national elections has LDP-KP losing their 2/3 majority and LDP barely above majority given the relative weakness of DP and JRP.  Abe steps down but is able to install a pro-Abe successor.
3) LDP decline at the national level continues but DP continues to be rudderless so it is not able to take advantage of the LDP's decline.  LDP-KP barely wins 2019 Upper House elections over a weak DP and JRP.  
4) Koike wins re-election in 2020
5) TPFA-KP cruse to easly re-election victory in 2021 in Tokyo Prefecture elections
6) Koike takes TPFA national and forms a Koike Party at the national level in 2021.
7) Koike Party forms an alliance with DP and KP at the national level under Koike's leadership.  Anti-Abe LDP factions defect to Koike Party.  Rump LDP which is pro-Abe forms an alliance with the pro-Abe JRP.
8  ) Koike Party-KP-DP defeats LDP-JRP in 2022 national elections with Koike as PM.

[jaichind]

A look ahead at 2019 Upper House elections.  It is not clear what sort of alliances will be made between HP CDP JCP and JRP.  I can see tactical alliances between HP-CDP, HP-JRP, and CDP-JCP. Single districts are too hard to know before we know what the alliances are.  But for multi-member districts most likely it will be a free for all.  For now I think it will look like:

東京(Tokyo) - 6 seats - LDP KP JCP CDP each with a seat.  HP JRP LP (far Left incumbent) LDP battle for the last 2.  LDP and HP more likely to win.
神奈川(Kanagawa) - 4 seats - LDP HP each with a seat.  KP CDP JCP LDP battle for the last 2. KP and CDP more likely to win.
大阪(Osaka) - 4 seats - LDP KP JRP each with a seat. JRP JCP HP CDP battle for the last 1. JCP more likely to win.
愛知(Aichi) - 4 seats - LDP KP each with a seat.  (DP incumbent as HP or CDP), ex-YP independent, JCP battle for the last 2.  (DP incumbent as HP or CDP) and JCP more likely to win.
北海道(Hokkaido) - 3 seat - LDP CDP each with a seat.  LDP CDP HP JCP NPD battle for the last 1. LDP more likely to win.
埼玉(Saitama) -3 seats - LDP CDP each with a seat.  KP HP JCP battle for the last 1.  KP more likely to win.
千葉(Chiba) - 3 seats - LDP to win 2 seats.  (DP incumbent as HP or CDP), JCP to battle for the last 1.  (DP incumbent as HP or CDP) more likely to win.
兵庫(Hyōgo) - 3 seats - LDP KP each with a seat.  JRP HP CDP JCP battle for the last 1.  JRP more likely to win.
福岡(Fukuoka) - 3 seats - LDP KP (DP incumbent as HP or CDP) with a seat each.  JCP also running but most likely will not win.
茨城(Ibaraki) - 2 seats - LDP with a seat. (DP incumbent as HP or CDP) LDP JCP battle for the last 1.   (DP incumbent as HP or CDP) most likely to win.
静岡(Shizuoka) - 2 seats - LDP (DP incumbent as HP or CDP) with a seat each.  JCP also running but most likely will not win.
京都(Kyoto) - 2 seats - LDP with a seat.  HP CDP JCP battle for the last 1.  JCP most likely to win.
広島(Hiroshima) - 2 seat - LDP with a seat.  (DP incumbent as HP or CDP) JCP JRP battle for the last 1.  (DP incumbent as HP or CDP) most likely to win.

[jaichind]

Kyodo Abe approval/disapproval  47.2(-2.3)/40.4(+2.1)

Party support

LDP　　  37.1（-1.8）
KP  　　   2.7（-1.3）
JRP 　　   2.2（-0.5）
HP  　　   3.2（-2.5）
LP  　　   0.3（-0.1）
DP  　　   1.8（+0.9）
CDP       12.5（-3.6）
SDP        1.1（+0.6）
JCP         3.1（±0.0）

Abe approval curve which surged as a result of election victory stabilizing and falling a bit

[jaichind]

富山県(Toyama) poll by local newspaper on Constitutional reform has 41.1 for an 35.3 against.



by demographics has



Which has men being for Constitutional change 49.5 vs 34.0 against and women being for 33.5 vs 36.4.  By age the youth seems to be opposed while the middle age demographics seems to be for.

 富山県(Toyama) has a fairly high pro-LDP lean so the fact that overall pro-Constitutional reform support is greater than opposition is not surprising.  

In an early October poll it has Abe cabinet support in 富山県(Toyama) at 47% which is the number 2 prefecture (first is 山口(Yamaguchi) where Abe is from.)


What is surprising are that the youth tends to be the age demographic most against  Constitutional change but at the same time the youth tends to be the most pro-LDP bloc.  Most likely explanation is the youth is attracted LDP as the party with a vision for economic revival and are likely to vote for LDP based on that vision even as it opposes LDP on non-economic policy issues.  

[jaichind]

There seems to be talks between HP and DP to form a joint caucus in both houses which could be a prelude to a merger.  It seems this is more driven by the low poll ratings for both parties that if not reversed would lead to mass defections to CDP and/or political oblivion next election.  The hope is the news generated by a possible future merger might lead to positive political coverage in the news and as a result higher poll ratings for both parties and most likely the unified party.

The poll ratings for HP seems to be around 2%-3% range.

[jaichind]

the CDP is doing quite well for an opposition party in Japan. Why would they want to merge with a falling center-right party? It just doesn't seem logical.

Well. that is not what the talks are about.  The talks are between DP and HP, not CDP and HP.  DP still exists as a Upper House only party and at the prefecture level.  There have been some recent trickle of defections from DP members at the prefecture level to CDP.  These merger talks between HP and DP are away to stop that trend and be able to form pre-elections alliances with CDP on a more equal footing. 

[jaichind]

the CDP is doing quite well for an opposition party in Japan. Why would they want to merge with a falling center-right party? It just doesn't seem logical.

Well. that is not what the talks are about.  The talks are between DP and HP, not CDP and HP.  DP still exists as a Upper House only party and at the prefecture level.  There have been some recent trickle of defections from DP members at the prefecture level to CDP.  These merger talks between HP and DP are away to stop that trend and be able to form pre-elections alliances with CDP on a more equal footing. 

Presumably at least some of the Upper House DP members would prefer CDP to HP - wouldn't this cause some further defections from DP at the Upper House level?

Correct.  But while some of those defections will be for ideological reasons (DP Upper House caucus tends to be more left wing than the DP Lower House caucus) the main reasons are for prospects of winning re-election.  And December is the time to defect as the political party subsidies from the government which are determined by the number of MPs are calculated and doled out in Jan.  So DP and HP figure if they can create a unified party that can poll better then most would be CDP defectors  will just stay put.   Right now CDP which seems to prioritize ideological consistency is not actively poaching but that could change.

It is totally possible that LDP KP alliance might dissolve in the next year or two over Constitutional reform and other policy differences so the next election might be a set of fragmented blocs which then would fuse into an alliance on a temporary basis for the election before breaking up again

LDP+PJK
KP
HP Hard Right+JRP
HP+DP
CDP+SDP+LP
JCP

[jaichind]

Struggling opposition Democratic Party may disband, form new party
Monday, December 11, 2017 12:48 PM
TOKYO, Dec. 12 Kyodo
Opposition Democratic Party leader Kohei Otsuka is considering disbanding his party and forming a new one, a source close to the matter said Monday.
Otsuka may present his proposal at a party meeting Tuesday, but it is not clear which lawmakers would join a new party.
House of Councillors member Otsuka replaced Seiji Maehara as party leader following the Oct. 22 lower house election.
Maehara had effectively disbanded the party to have all of its lower house members run as candidates for Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike's Party of Hope.
Some of the members who did not join the Party of Hope formed the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, which become the leading opposition force in the lower house.

[jaichind]

LDP support mostly stabilized and back to level somewhat level early 2017 levels.



CDP support (Blue) falling down to around 10% as the intensity of the election wears off.  Meanwhile HP support (Red) has mostly collapsed to JRP and even DP levels.

[jaichind]

Looks like ex-DP leader Renho will most likely join CDP.   If so then DP to CDP defections  will accelerate to the point where there is nothing for HP to merge with.   

[jaichind]

Abe cabinet approval rating curve holding steady  in the high 40s.



Same for party support.  LDP support in the mid 30s, CDP around 10% (which is what DPJ/DP would get in the 2013-2016 period) and both DP and HP both in the low single digits.

[jaichind]

Just looking at the polls and projecting out to 2019 my guess on the PR section for the 2019 Upper House elections (assuming DP merges into HP) will be something like

LDP  33.5%   17
KP    12.5%    6
PJK    0.5%     0
JRP    5.0%     2
HP    10.5%    5
CDP  25.0%  13
LP      1.5%    0
SDP   2.0%    1
JCP    8.5%    4

back in 2016 it was

LDP  35.9%   19
KP    13.5%    7
PJK    1.3%     0
NPR   1.0%     0   -> gone, most votes most likely went to LDP or JRP
JRP    9.2%     4
DP    21.0%  11
VPA    0.8%    0  -> gone, most vote most likely went to CDP or JCP
LP      1.9%    1
SDP   2.7%    1
JCP   10.7%   5

[jaichind]

Go2senkyo poll on Constitutional revision and Abe

Pro-Constitutional reform      38.5%
Against Constitutional reform 42.0%
 


LDP voters back Constitutional reform 67.7 to 13.2
Non-Aligned voters oppose  Constitutional reform 48.2 to 23.5



On Abe getting a third term as LDP President.  28.1% for and 54.2% against.

[jaichind]

Sankei came out with an "analysis" of possible results of the 2019 Upper House elections using the 2017 PR vote share.  It focused on the 1- member districts pointing out that the winner of the 1- seat districts tend to win the election


What Sankei did was for 1- seats to add up the PR vote share of CDP HP SDP JCP and JRP and compared it to the LDP KP vote share.   It assumes that there will be a all opposition candidate to take on LDP in the 1- member districts.  It concluded that out of the 32 1- districts LDP would come out ahead in 15 seats and the opposition will come out ahead in 15.    It also looked at the 3- member districts and point out that the CDP HP SDP JCP vote share exceeds LDP KP in 3 prefectures (namely 北海道(Hokkaido) 埼玉(Saitama) and 千葉(Chiba)) where the LDP might be vulnerable to winning only 1 of the 3 seats.

Overall I found these projections as to optimistic for the opposition.  For 1- member district  the PR vote share projection  should really be LDP + KP + JRP/2 vs HP + CDP + SDP + JCP + JRP/2 where the JRP PR voter will most likely split their vote.  For multi-member districts we have to assume JCP will run so it will be LDP+KP vs HP + CDP + SDP vs JCP vs JRP (or NPD).

If we do it my way then the 2019 projected result for 1- district would be LDP 21 Opposition 11 which is same as 2016.  Using this model we find that in 2019 LDP flips (relative to 2016)  青森(Aomori) [very likely as the 2016 opposition win was fairly unusual] and 宮城(Miyagi) [much less likely as there might be a ex-YP turned LDP rebel in the fray) while the opposition would flip (relative to 2016) 栃木(Tochigi) [very unlikely as part of the HP PR vote here are because of Watanabe joining HP and that vote will go back to LDP in the district vote] and 岐阜(Gifu) [fairly unlikely since LDP incumbent is pretty strong].

As for 3- member districts if we assume that NPD runs separately then perhaps the opposition can replicate its 2 to 1 victory over LDP in 北海道(Hokkaido).  Everywhere else it will be LDP-KP 2 Opposition 1 because JCP will run separately.

In 兵庫(Hyōgo) and 大阪(Osaka) the decline of JPR an JCP means that the non-JCP opposition will capture a seat each from JRP relative to 2016.  Also in 神奈川(Kanagawa) the decline of JCP will mean that JCP will not split the vote so it will be LDP-KP 2 opposition 2 and not LDP-KP 3 opposition 1.

So a 2017 PR only projection would yield a projection for 2019 Upper House elections of, out of 73 district seats, LDP-KP 43 Non-JCP opposition 28 JRP 1 JCP 1.  In 2016 it was LDP-KP 44 Non-JCP opposition 25 JRP 3 JCP 1. So 2019 most likely will be a replication of 2016 results if the 2017 Lower House PR votes share are a indicating of voting intentions. Of course it assumes that the HP DP JCP SDP JCP and get together in the 1- member seats and non-JCP non-JRP opposition can work reasonably well enough in multi member districts.

[jaichind]

Looks like DP-HP merger talks are off.  They could not agree on the what to do with the new 2015 Security legislation.  DP insist that they are unconstitutional and  must be repealed while HP says they are problematic but not to the point of being unconstitutional.  Most likely result of this is the DP Left in the Upper Hose will over time defect to DCP. 

[jaichind]

Latest round of polls show cabinet support and party support mostly holding steady last couple of months

[jaichind]

Japan's Party of Hope is Said to Urge Koike to Leave: Kyodo
Thursday, January 25, 2018 06:31 PM
By Shoko Oda

(Bloomberg) --
Japan’s Party of Hope plans to urge its founder Yuriko Koike, also the governor of Tokyo, to leave the party, Kyodo reports, citing unidentified party executives.

Party also considering internal split to create new parties; will consider changing party name

[jaichind]

Wow. I guess now HP will finally fall apart after a couple of months of poor polling.   The Right elements of HP could form a new party or join DP and the more Center elements might join CDP if CDP will take them. 

[jaichind]

It seems the main conflict in HP stems from the "original problem" of how HP was formed.  Namely the 2015 security legislation.  One of the main reasons why CDP was even formed was because Koike insisted that all DP->HP defectors must endorse the 2015 security law which DP objected to in 2015 as unconstitutional.  Those did not want to accept this formed CDP. 

After the 2017 elections and Koike stepped down the election for the new head of HP had was a battle between the pro- and anti- Koike factions (again divided on the topic of the 2015 new security law) with the pro-Koike faction candidate 玉木 雄一郎(Tamaki Yūichirō) winning.

Tamaki then saw that given the low ratings HP's only in future elections are to form an alliance with DP and likely DCP and/or merge with DP.  The HP-DP talks broke down over disagreements over the HP and DP positions in the 2015 security legislation.  Seeing HP party headed toward doom in the next election Tamaki decided to switch positions and want HP to take on a anti-2015 security legislation position in order to help with DP-HP merger or alliance as well as a possible alliance with DCP.   To do that Koike has to go and he is pushing for Koike  to leave and if need so a handful of true believers in the hawkish position in HP.  Not clear where this is going to go and if the HP caucus will back Tamaki and even if it does how many security hawks will defect to form another party or to even join JRP or LDP.

[jaichind]

Mayor election for 名護市(Nago) was yesterday.  This is relevant because this is the city that the Japan-USA government plan to move the based to. 

Anti-Base incumbant which was backed by DP-CDP-SDP-OMSP-JCP was defeated by a LDP-KP-JRP backed candidate 54.6%-45.4%.  This might signal the possible defeat of the anti-base Okinawa governor 翁長 雄志(Onaga Takeshi) in the upcoming elections later this year.  The pro-base LDP-KP-JRP candidate avoided the base issue but talked about the various central government subsidies that will help the local economy.  I suspect that is how the LDP will take down Onaga later this year: Run on subsides for Okinawa to get the voters to overlook the USA base. 

[jaichind]

What is interesting about the mayor election for 名護市(Nago) is that exit polls show the anti-base incumbent won with a 10% margin but ended up losing by a 9% margin.  I guess the "socially acceptable" position in Okinawa is now anti-based by many votes voted for more subsidies which means the LDP-KP-JRP pro-base candidate.

[jaichind]

松沢 成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) who has a YP and PFG background announced that he and 4 other HP MPs (all with Far Right Hawk positions) were going to quit HP and form a new party in light of HP attempts to form a 3 way CDP-DP-HP alliance. 

Even though it is late this is pretty much my prediction right before the 2017 election.

I think the day after the election, most of the HP winners (plus pro-HP independents winners) will leave  HP and either join CDP or form a new Centrist party.  From their point of view Kokie did nothing to get them elected and has thrown away a good hand in this election campaign.  I suspect a week after the election HP will have something like 5-10 MPs at best.

Pretty much the 4 of the 5 MPs which are leaving have PFG and/or YP background.  One is a neophyte who only won 14.1% of the vote in his seat but since HP ran so little candidates Kinki PR section he was elected on the PR slate.    All the rest of HP MPs were members of DP right before HP was formed. 

So with the Hawk Right wing of HP leaving and Koike totally marginalized with hints that she should leave HP, HP is now pretty much the DP Right of Sept 2017 which now is looking to form an alliance with DP (Upper House wing of Sept 2017 DP), and CDP (Left DP of Sept 2017 DP.)

Main problem for this CDP-DP-HP alliance if it gets formed in 2019 Upper House elections is how it can get JCP not to run in single member seats.  If they can pull that off then 2019 Upper House elections could be competitive.   

[jaichind]

http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/2136664/japans-finance-ministry-admit-altering-documents-cut-price-land

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https://www.yahoo.com/news/japan-official-linked-abe-cronyism-row-found-dead-070623259.html

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Now blow for Abe.  Cabinet approval ratings set to fall now.  Unclear how much low damage this still do to Abe.  Most likely it will not be large unless there is evidence Abe was personally involved which there is not and I doubt any will surface.

[jaichind]

Abe approval heading down on revival of Osaka school land sale scandal

 




LDP party support (Pink) falling a bit

[jaichind]

It seems the Finance Ministry altering documents on the Moritomo Gakuen school removed references to Abe's wife and couple of other LDP ministers.  This is not looking good.  For Abe to have a chance at winning the Sept 2018 LDP Prez election for an unprecedented third term, he has to stop scandal at a few rotten apples in Finance Ministry who acted without knowledge or support of Finance Minister and DPM Taro Aso.  The Finance Ministry bureaucrat that seems to have committed suicide seems like a good fall guy for all this.  Abe just has to hope that the LDP, opposition parties, and the public buys the story.     

Abe's main enemy in all this is within the LDP.  Anti-Abe forces within LDP which had been dormant since the Oct 2017 LDP election victory is on the move again making threatening noises about  need for maximum transparency and "going as deep as we need to in the investigation" in order to restore trust in the LDP.  The various LDP landslides in 2012-2017 is now working against Abe.  The opposition is in such bad shape that the anti-Abe LDP factions now does not feel the need to circle wagons around Abe since a scandal that takes down Abe just means they take over without fear that the Opposition will gain that much electorally from this.