India 2024 LS and assembly elections

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Ayodhya Ram Mandir's consecration will be on Jan 22.  This is most likely the largest Hindu event in centuries and could very well change the entire nature of Hinduism.

Yeah , I know a lot of Hindus who have mentioned how monumental this moment is

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https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/congress-will-not-attend-ram-mandir-inauguration-calls-it-bjp-rss-event/articleshow/106698316.cms

"Congress will not attend Ram Mandir inauguration, calls it 'BJP-RSS event'"

INC is taking a big risk in doing this, especially in the Hindi belt.  But they were stuck one way or another. I suspect individual members of INC will attend as individuals.
 

 

Is Advani going to be there or is he still disinvited

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It is interesting that with the NDA going for its third term, it is in a very strong position to be re-elected.  This is as opposed to the UPA government in 2014 was in a very weak position to be re-elected and indeed was defeated in a landslide.

If you just look at the economic record the UPA government is better.  Taking the geometric mean of quarterly YoY GDP numbers (the last few quarters are estimates) from Q3 2004 to Q2 2014 (UPA) versus Q3 2014 to Q2 2024, you get

UPA      7.9% (Q3 2004 to Q2 2014)
NDA     5.7%  (Q3 2014 to Q2 2024)

The reasons for Modi's strength relative to UPA in 2014 despite the numbers are

a) Modi in 2024 is in a much stronger position than Sonia Gandhi in 2014 when it comes to brand.  Sonia Gandhi's brand was at its peak in the 2005-2009 period.  Her mishandling of the AP-Telangana  issue and Rahul Gandhi acting like a spoiled brat in the 2012-2014 period destroyed her brand ahead of the 2014 elections

b) UPA was elected in 2004 on a redistribution platform.  It turned out that the BJP was much more effective and getting resources into the hands of those at the grassroots.  BJP is a cadre party and INC is an alliance of local elites.  So the efficiency of resource redistribution was more effective under Modi than under UPA even though redistribution was supposed to be the INC brand.

c) The Hindu majoritarian message gave Modi a clear cultural edge over INC.

What is interesting beyond all this is that the media viewed Modi's record on the economy as stronger than the UPA and mostly projected the image that Modi was leading India to first-world economic status when number tells a different story.

The reasons for this are two-fold.   First, we should restate the GDP numbers under UPA vs NDA but with what the PRC numbers look like in the same period

          India      PRC
UPA      7.9%    10.1%  (Q3 2004 to Q2 2014)
NDA     5.7%      5.8%   (Q3 2014 to Q2 2024)

The growth rate gap between India and the PRC closed to nil under Modi.  So even in absolute terms, India's GDP growth is slower under Modi than under UPA the Indian mainstream media can make a credible argument that "India is the fastest growing major economy in the world" while under UPA its economic record, however impressive, was overshadowed by that of PRC on the world stage.

Second, the inflation differential adjusted strength of INR is around 20% stronger under Modi than under UPA.  So while INR weakened throughout the last 20 years, if you take inflation into account INR strengthened by over 20% under the Modi era.  So in USA terms, India's economic numbers are much more impressive.  Modi does get credit for this strength of INR since international investors (as well as NRIs) were confident in Modi's image as an economic reformer (overstated in my view) to invest in India pushing up the relative position of INR.

The average joe in India will not even have any sense of these numbers.  But when their bare minimum economic needs are meet by BJP redistribution policies and the media tells them that Modi is leading India to an unprecedented economic boom there is not reason to doubt that narrative.

Didn’t Modi also defy conventional wisdom during COVID and rather than do a universal cash based stimulus, he did a targeted stimulus which kept inflation lower in India compared to the west .

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Didn’t Modi also defy conventional wisdom during COVID and rather than do a universal cash based stimulus, he did a targeted stimulus which kept inflation lower in India compared to the west .

Correct.  One Modi strategy is to focus on developing the formal economy at the expense of the informal economy.  He reasons that this would be the way to develop economies at scale, get foreign investment and generate taxable revenue to keep the deficit under control.  To counter the negative impact on the large lower class impacted by this Modi is counting on effective BJP execution of redistributive policies where BJP will get the credit for keeping those negatively impacted by this economic shift above water. 

Modi's 2016 demonetization campaign, in addition to hitting the funding sources of regional parties he wants to finish off, also shifts power toward the formal economy.  The targeted COVID-19 subsidies toward the formal sector is also part of that strategy.

Also UPI seems to have completely transformed India's economy. When I last visited India in 2022, I saw how pretty much every street vendor basically used UPI to do most transactions(visitors like my family and I were the only people who used cash lol) which was pretty crazy to see.

I have also heard Modi is using the aadhar card to directly transfer money to the bank accounts of low income families and thus has bypassed many of the bureaucrats who used to skim off a lot of welfare money for themselves.

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Didn’t Modi also defy conventional wisdom during COVID and rather than do a universal cash based stimulus, he did a targeted stimulus which kept inflation lower in India compared to the west .

Correct.  One Modi strategy is to focus on developing the formal economy at the expense of the informal economy.  He reasons that this would be the way to develop economies at scale, get foreign investment and generate taxable revenue to keep the deficit under control.  To counter the negative impact on the large lower class impacted by this Modi is counting on effective BJP execution of redistributive policies where BJP will get the credit for keeping those negatively impacted by this economic shift above water.  

Modi's 2016 demonetization campaign, in addition to hitting the funding sources of regional parties he wants to finish off, also shifts power toward the formal economy.  The targeted COVID-19 subsidies toward the formal sector is also part of that strategy.

I think Modi dropped the ball on agricultural sector reform and had to back due due to persistent protests against his reform plans.  It speaks to his political abilities to back down but is a bad economic decision on the long run.

Given it seems Prime Minister Narendra Modi already has his third term sewn up (although the proverb, 'don't count your chickens before they hatch' immediately comes to mind), assuming he also wins in 2029 and retires upon the end of that term after twenty years in power, a fully developed India by mid-century would be his greatest legacy.  I hope for India's sake that they base their economic growth mainly on manufacturing and foreign investment, and away from agriculture.  

That is still up in the air:

India Is Chasing China’s Economy. But Something Is Holding It Back
Long-term investment in India by businesses is stagnant, and foreign money is falling, even as the government is driving growth with infrastructure spending

India’s economy is booming. Stock prices are through the roof, among the best performing in the world. The government’s investment in airports, bridges and roads, and clean-energy infrastructure is visible almost everywhere. India’s total output, or gross domestic product, is expected to increase 6 percent this year — faster than the United States or China.

But there’s a hitch: Investment by Indian companies is not keeping pace. The money that companies put into the future of their businesses, for things like new machines and factories, is stagnant. As a fraction of India’s economy, it is shrinking. And while money is flying into India’s stock markets, long-term investment from overseas has been declining.

Green and red lights are flashing at the same time. At some point soon, the government will need to reduce its extraordinary spending, which could weigh on the economy if private sector money doesn’t pick up.

No one expects India to stop growing, but a rise of 6 percent is not enough to meet India’s ambitions. Its population, now the world’s biggest, is growing. Its government has set a national goal of catching up to China and becoming a developed nation by 2047. That kind of leap will require sustained growth closer to 8 or 9 percent a year, most economists say.

The missing investment could also present a challenge for Narendra Modi, the prime minister since 2014, who has concentrated on making India an easier place for foreign and Indian companies to do business.

I am not exactly sure Modi will be the BJP's PM candidate in 2029. The right wing of the party wants Yogi to be the next PM and probably the best way to stop that is if Modi steps down as PM in 2027-28 and has a handpicked successor become PM then

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https://time.com/6564148/ayodhya-ram-temple-modi-india/

Articles like this are lol worthy

n Jan. 22, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will inaugurate a three-story monument made of marble, sandstone, and teak that features 44 gates and 392 intricately-carved pillars. But the structure, built on a vast 70-acre plot, may be the least remarkable part of the new Ayodhya temple. Its controversial inauguration atop the ruins of a 16th-century mosque marks the culmination of a three-decade promise made by Modi, his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, and other Hindu nationalist groups—and serves as the biggest political testament yet to Hindu supremacy over Indian Muslims.

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https://twitter.com/YRDeshmukh/status/1748193605955551693

C-Voter's Yashwant Deshmukh implies a  tsunami for the BJP on the backs of the Ayodhya Ram Mandir Inauguration

I wonder if there has been a poll done on voting patterns of those whose "favorite" Avatar of Vishnu is Ram vs those whose "favorite" Avatar of of Vishnu is Krishna. I am sure there is far more of the latter but I do remember growing up, I definitely read/watched more about the Ramayan than Mahabharat

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https://time.com/6564148/ayodhya-ram-temple-modi-india/

Articles like this are lol worthy

n Jan. 22, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will inaugurate a three-story monument made of marble, sandstone, and teak that features 44 gates and 392 intricately-carved pillars. But the structure, built on a vast 70-acre plot, may be the least remarkable part of the new Ayodhya temple. Its controversial inauguration atop the ruins of a 16th-century mosque marks the culmination of a three-decade promise made by Modi, his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, and other Hindu nationalist groups—and serves as the biggest political testament yet to Hindu supremacy over Indian Muslims.

The article does not point out that the reason why the Supreme Court ruled in favor of the Hindus is not because they believe in the claim that Lord Ram was born on that spot.  It is based on the India version of adverse possession.  Basically there was a  mosque there but over the decades Hindu groups has occupied that spot while the  mosque was abandoned and not used as a  mosque  anymore.  As a result under the principle of adverse possession the Hindu groups gets the land. I disagree with adverse possession but that seems to be part of the law.

Anyway the India liberal left narrative is that Modi will turn India into a Hindu Pakistan.  Western liberal media mostly repeats that narrative without saying so.

What I don't get is why are the Mughals so celebrated by liberals in India. After reading this, I would 100% say they were worse than the British Raj:

https://www.sikhnet.com/news/islamic-india-biggest-holocaust-world-history

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Modi consecrates Ayodhya Ram Mandir.    Best wishes to Hindus everywhere on this great day for them.   Jai Shri Ram !!

Yesterday my parents and I went to a local Mandir where they were celebrating the occasion and their was quite a lot of people there. Of course the Pran Pratistha started way too late so we watched it at home rather than the Mandir.

Jai Shri Ram !!

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The only question now is whether the BJP-led coalition will win a bigger majority than they already have in the Lok Sabha:

India's opposition challenge to Modi may be imploding

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/aiming-for-400-seats-bjp-sets-up-panel-to-recruit-opposition-mps-sources-4835369

The BJP is apparently aiming for 400+ seats which has only happened once before(INC in 1984)

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44-38 is a smaller lead for BJP than I’d expect given the limited amount I’ve heard about this election. Is that from a reliable pollster?

That's with all the state parties now allied with INC though and many of them already won a lot of seats in 2019 too.

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Wait , Indira Gandhi is more popular than Nehru?

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The trend until now has been that every outperforming and significant to a landslide re-election victory means that the same party will underperform expectations in the next.

1971 INC landslide re-election -> 1977 INC loses power in a show defeat
1984 INC landslide re-election -> 1989 INC underperforms and loses power despite being SLP
1999 BJP outperforms to win re-election by a large margin -> 2004 BJP underperforms and loses power
2009 INC outperforms to win re-election -> 2014 INC underperforms and loses by landslide defeat

2019 BJP outperforms to win landslide re-election victory ->

Can Modi buck the trend?  The expectation is that NDA beats 2019 performance.  If you go by history they will underperform those expectations and win a large majority but below 2019 results.

If the BJP won in 2024 wouldnt it be the first time since 1977 that a party won 3 straight full terms. So this is how it was:

1980/1984: Two straight INC terms

1989: Hung Parliament with multiple parties leading the government and different times in the term

1991: INC

1996/1998: True Definition of Hung Parliament
 
1999: NDA

2004/2009: Two straight UPA terms

2014/2019: Two straight BJP terms


So if the BJP wins again or even the NDA wouldnt it be the first time since 1977 that a party has won more than two straight terms to begin with

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if the BJP win a full third term , this will be the last time each G7 Nation(will also add in Israel and NZ here) had a party be in power for longer consecutively.


US:

Presidentially: Democrats from 1932-1952
House: Democrats from 1954-1994
Senate: it was the Democrats from 1954-1980

Canada: Liberals from 1963-1979

UK: Tories from 1979-1997

France: Les Républicains from 1995-2012

Germany: CDU from 2005-2021

Italy: Christian Democrats from 1945-1981

Israel: Labor from 1948-1977

Japan: LDP from 1955-1993

Australia: Liberals from 1949-1967

NZ: Liberals from 1891-1912


So its not as uncommon as since the 1970s it seems like the Tories, CDU, Les Republicans have all managed to start longer runs in power(and CDU has done it twice)

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Current betting markets for LS elections

BJP    326-329
INC      43-45

Which is a gain from BJP relative to 2019 (303) and a loss for INC relative to 2019 (52)

If INC does lose seats it will mostly be losing ground in Kerala (vis-a-vis LDF) and TN (getting a smaller quota from DMK).  In 2019 INC maxed out these two states and unless they can make up ground in Karnataka, Telangana and Hindi belt they will for sure lose seats relative to 2019

How many seats would the NDA have here . Would it be 370+ or is a lot of the BJP gains coming from seats their NDA Allies hold

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What’s next for Congress/its allied parties if 2024 is worse than 2019 for them?

I think they will have to accept that a major realignment has taken place with BJP as the dominant party.  INC will have to change its ideology to at least pay lip service to Hindu nationalism focus on assembly elections and wait for anti-incumbency to build up against BJP.

Something similar took place in the 1950s-1980s during the era of INC domination.  BJS/BJP also had to pay lip service to Gandhian socialism even as its core was still Hindu nationalism.

In some ways redistricting could be the best thing possible for the INC as that would force them to change

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A list of firms that bought electoral bonds before they were banned by the Supreme Court has been released.  Almost all the donations went to the BJP. What is funny about this list is a bunch of them are unknown firms.  And if you dig into them the amount they donated is greater than the entire turnover of said firm.   This entire process just feels like a giant money laundry scheme

Will this negatively impact the BJP

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https://news.bloomberglaw.com/securities-law/us-prosecutors-expand-adani-probe-to-review-potential-bribery

"US Prosecutors Expand Adani Probe to Review Potential Bribery"

Investigators are digging into whether an Adani entity, or people linked to the company including Gautam Adani, were involved in paying officials in India for favorable treatment on an energy project, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing the confidential effort. The probe, which is also looking at Indian renewable energy company Azure Power Global Ltd., is being handled by the US Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of New York and the Justice Department’s fraud unit in Washington, said people familiar with the matter.

Biden to Modi:  I know you are going to win but do not thing it is all smooth sailing from here.  We can still make things difficult for you so fall in line where it counts.

Don’t these  investigations take years and if Biden wanted to make things more difficult for Modi , couldn’t he just pull back on some of the easing of trade barriers.

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I don’t know if this would make me called a BINO as well but I don’t want the BJP to have a larger majority than 2019 . I think one party dominance like that isn’t good for a nation and also a larger majority makes it easier for the BJP to replace Modi when he retires with someone to the right of him

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I don’t know if this would make me called a BINO as well but I don’t want the BJP to have a larger majority than 2019 . I think one party dominance like that isn’t good for a nation and also a larger majority makes it easier for the BJP to replace Modi when he retires with someone to the right of him

Modi's argument is that NDA needs to get above 400 seats since this is about getting a massive majority consensus about a set of politics that will take India to a true global superpower into to 2047 (100 year independence anniversity)

Wouldn’t he need 2/3rd of the Rajya Sabha to be able to amend the constitution as well if that’s what he means by creating a new consensus . Also wouldn’t redistricting in 2026 force the opposition to adapt as that would make it official that the old style of Indian Politics is gone forever . So if he just wants a big enough win to force both parties to agree to a new consensus , then wouldn’t a 2019 style win be enough given the opposition wouldn’t be able to stop redistricting with that anyway .

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Jaichind what unpopular but good econimic reform will Modi do?

He’s done quite a bit already lol . GST and Bankruptcy reform were probably not popular but he did implement them

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The Delhi AAP CM  Arvind Kejriwal continue to insist that he will continue as CM even from jail while he tries to deal with the legal issues of being arrested.

This is a big risk.  He faces the risk of being dismissed as CM and President Rule installed in Delhi (which de facto means BJP takes over)

Apparently the INC filed the complaint

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https://www.reuters.com/world/india/billionaire-among-prominent-indians-flocking-modis-party-ahead-vote-2024-03-24/

Naveen Jindal, head of Jindal Steel and Power (JNSP.NS), opens new tab and a two-time Congress parliamentarian, followed the country's last air force chief, Rakesh Kumar Singh Bhadauria, in joining the BJP late on Sunday. Moments after he quit Congress, the BJP said Jindal would contest the upcoming election from his home state of Haryana for the party.

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https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/you-will-always-remain-a-hero-mallikarjun-kharge-writes-to-manmohan-singh-on-his-retirement-from-rajya-sabha-5362242

Manmohan Singh is fully retiring from politics

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So rahul gandhi is going full socialist now :

https://www.indiatoday.in/amp/elections/story/congress-rahul-gandhi-financial-survey-wealth-redistribution-telangana-manifesto-lok-sabha-polls-2524343-2024-04-07