Israel-Gaza war

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There's the possibility they deliberately let it happen in order to benefit from a rally around the flag effect, and get a casus belli to get rid of Gaza civilians/Hamas, increase antipathy to the Palestinian cause etc.

Zelenskyy became very popular after Ukraine got attacked because of the rally around the flag effect. There were domestic issues in Israel. It might be that Netanyahu wanted to benefit as well from that.

That isn't how things work in Israel as a rule: people do rally round the flag, and probably to an even greater extent than normal, but it really is to the flag, to the State and to the idea of the State rather than to the government of the day. If the latter is seen to have failed, people often get very angry with it even as they rally to the flag. Many examples of this historically, and some pretty unambiguous signs now, though I won't predict how that develops further.

That notwithstanding, there are other ways this could benefit the Netanyahu government. Before, Israel would have encountered substantial opposition, domestic and foreign, to a ground invasion of Gaza; now, it likely has carte blanche. The obvious counterpoint is that such an invasion is undesirable from an Israeli perspective, which is true unless your single overriding priority is to stamp out any and all Palestinian political independence.

Again, I think this is less likely than the alternative, and even if true it would obviously not absolve Hamas whatsoever. It freely chose to inflict terror. Just saying this possibility ought not to be ruled out.

this is a bit of a simplification but Netanyahu's political support is almost entirely because he can say "I'm the only one who can keep you safe" and enough people believed him -- an illusion that has now been irrevocably shattered

I wouldn't say entirely – a lot of Israelis are just legitimately right-of-center on the issues – but you are right, if this was something they let happen they had to have known it would be catastrophic if/when it got out, which is why I think it's very unlikely. Just trying to wrap my head around the unprecedented scale of the IDF failure in the south. This isn't "we knew something was coming but had no idea how big it would be" failure, this is more like "we were all on vacation" failure.

On an occasion I was in the store earlier this year, Bibi's book was on sale. I read some of it and what I saw really underlined the "I keep Israel safe and I will stop at nothing to defend Israel" brand.
If his ability to keep people safe has been shown to be suboptimal, he might feel forced to take a harsh line and stick to it to retain whatever credibility he has left.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20231010-israel-mk-says-use-doomsday-weapons-against-gaza/
Revital Gotliv MK: “Jericho Missile! Jericho Missile! Strategic alert. before considering the introduction of forces. Doomsday weapon! This is my opinion. May God preserve all our strength.”

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20231010-israel-mk-says-use-doomsday-weapons-against-gaza/
Revital Gotliv MK: “Jericho Missile! Jericho Missile! Strategic alert. before considering the introduction of forces. Doomsday weapon! This is my opinion. May God preserve all our strength.”

Utterly deranged

These kinds of people you don't want to have their hands on the button.
Conserving one's strength and care when using it are important for preserving said strength. Even if this was a situation that merited what she was calling for (and no, it isn't), she'd be the wrong man for the job.
In your guts you know she's nuts.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hamas is a cancer within the body of the pro-Palestinian cause. This conflict has somehow shoved me further into the "pox on both their houses" position towards the leadership of both sides.
I hope the men who did take pleasure in murdering the children of Moroccan Jews and slaughtering innocent old men understand that their Creator will judge them for their actions.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

They found the bodies of 40 babies in a kibbutz.

The US can't stop what's to come now. No one can. That's not an endorsement of it, that's just a statement of fact. This isn't 9/11, this is the impact of Pearl Harbor combined with the sadism of the Holocaust, and it's unleashed something in Israel that won't be put back in the bottle.

Already being walked back. Again: we'll see.
https://twitter.com/Nicole_Zedek/status/1711721433968111855?t=YssM7yU0yc-kGidFTu...

From Anadolu Agency on Twitter: "Israeli army tells Anadolu that they have no information confirming allegations that ‘Hamas beheaded babies'"
Going forward I think I'll be a bit more careful making judgements about these sorts of stories. At least, I'll try.
EDIT: fortunately my post in the previous page still works, nothing in it has been disproved and it still is true. The benefit of cautiously wording things.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Me too. I’m very wary of sensationalist headlines under the fog of war.

It's important to keep an open mind. "In war, truth is the first casualty" is a quote I've seen multiple times over the past few days, in some form or another.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sad but inevitable that these flare-ups turn into orgies of hatred-displaying.
Humanity at among its very worst.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkeys-erdogan-says-us-sending-aircraft-carrier-closer-israel-commit-massacre-2023-10-10/

"What will the aircraft carrier of the U.S. do near Israel, why do they come? What will boats around and aircraft on it will do? They will hit Gaza and around, and take steps for serious massacres there,"

- Erdogan
He was having a conference with Chancellor Nehammer of Austria in Ankara.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

US trying to broker deals to prevent conflict from spreading:

"The discussions between Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman about the Palestinian-Israeli conflict are “helpful,” a senior State Department official said Wednesday.

The United States has been asking key allies to talk to Israel’s adversaries to prevent the war with Hamas from escalating into a larger regional conflict."

...

"The discussion between Raisi and Mohammed was the first call between the two leaders since their countries, which are longtime adversaries, resumed ties after a China-brokered détente in March."


https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/11/israel-hamas-war-updates-gaza-attack/

A rare ray of sunshine in a dark tunnel.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm gonna be real, as someone who wholeheartedly supports Palestinian liberation, I find the constant arguments over the baby beheadings totally counterproductive and really emblematic of the failures of the pro-Palestinian left here. This is just me personally, but I suspect I am not in the minority when I say that I am mostly against baby killing in itself – the issue of whether the babies were beheaded is of comparatively minor importance. Therefore, when I see person 1 go "Hamas beheaded babies" and person 2 go "that's not true, they definitely killed babies, but there's no confirmation of beheadings" I instantly become less sympathetic to person 2. Anyone killing babies is bad and doesn't need to be defended.

The problem with that mindset is that if person 1 is being dishonest and trying to inflame the situation while being unchallenged over minor details, they can retain credibility which they can use to escalate to geater and greater levels of disinformation. In this case no propaganda is needed as Hamas is villanous enough on it's own, but the prinicple that both sides, especially when involving governments should be assumed to be lying unless they peovide tangible evidence is not a bad one.

Agreed.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm gonna be real, as someone who wholeheartedly supports Palestinian liberation, I find the constant arguments over the baby beheadings totally counterproductive and really emblematic of the failures of the pro-Palestinian left here. This is just me personally, but I suspect I am not in the minority when I say that I am mostly against baby killing in itself – the issue of whether the babies were beheaded is of comparatively minor importance. Therefore, when I see person 1 go "Hamas beheaded babies" and person 2 go "that's not true, they definitely killed babies, but there's no confirmation of beheadings" I instantly become less sympathetic to person 2. Anyone killing babies is bad and doesn't need to be defended.

I think it's symptomatic of issues much wider than this conflict. All claims, particularly war crimes, require to be substantied in order to ensure that they go to court as the truth, if a court is 'called' to address them. Victims are not served by lack of clarity. They are not served by 'trial by social media.'

Your post inspired me to make this meme.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Genuine question: obviously Hamas have always been a genocidal totalitarian terror cult, but were they always this bad or did the events of last weekend surprise even by their standards?

Hamas to me feels less like a genocidal terror cult (like Daesh) and more like a barbaric self-interested gang grifting off Palestinian liberation. Still evil, but a different kind of evil. They'd rather Israel exist and their (meaning Hamas') elite dwell in mansions in the Persian Gulf region than neither be true.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's almost as if Gaza's population and indeed Palestine's, is as heterogeneous in its political and sociological profile as Israel's.

Shocking for those who think Arabs have a hive mind, I know.

I don't know if this is directed at my post, but yes, obviously. My point is that the Israeli order to move a large amount of people in a short period of time is an order of a type which could only be obeyed universally with the collaboration of the local government, and not otherwise.

Not directed at you : I actually think you are clear sighted in your analysis of the ongoing events.

Out of curiosity, what do you feel about my postings on all this?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Genuine question: obviously Hamas have always been a genocidal totalitarian terror cult, but were they always this bad or did the events of last weekend surprise even by their standards?

Hamas to me feels less like a genocidal terror cult (like Daesh) and more like a barbaric self-interested gang grifting off Palestinian liberation. Still evil, but a different kind of evil. They'd rather Israel exist and their (meaning Hamas') elite dwell in mansions in the Persian Gulf region than neither be true.

See, a week ago I was pretty sure that was the case.

Ultimately, they calculate they need to cosplay as the former to be able to be the latter.
This isn't to say they don't have people under them who fit "death cult", but the actual people calling the shots value their self-preservation and their riches above all else.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

cutting off aid to Israel is not wise for US interests.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

cutting off aid to Israel is not wise for US interests.

Why should the US continue to subsidize a developed country (which also does contrary to our wishes)?

If an informal anti-American coalition is to exist, it ought to be smaller and not bigger.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

To all the posters that are being critical of Israel. What would you have done if you were Israel After the Hamas abducted/raped/decapitated a ton of israeli children ?


Death toll is terrible in Gaza but I genuinely don't see how Hamas shouldn't be entirely blamed for that.

I would not go in and genocide a group of people because of terrorists. Responding to Hamas by becoming Hamas isn't the answer.

You didn't reply to my question lol.


It's quite telling no one ever in this thread responded to me with a concrete plan about what they would be doing if they were Israel After that Hamas would have raped abducted Israeli women and beheaded babies.

Gaza Attack Options - Retired US Brigadier General Mark Kimmitt

https://youtu.be/-1EO0LVLTeg

After watching that, you can see why the US are acting as a covering force with the US Naval Groups offshore.

If the US show up with any A-10 Warthog's, then watch this space.

There will be anywhere between 2-4 US nuclear submarines involved, some with 160 Tomahawk missiles.

No other actors will be able to distract Israel from Gaza whilst the US military sits just offshore.

That's a good video.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My grandmother has boarded her flight out of Israel, thank God.

Landed safely on American soil a few hours ago. I can breathe easy now.

Good to hear.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/Yesh_Din/status/1714594176292037066?t=tvnLCl3gpSqVJwdyS8qDPg...
Escalation of settler violence in the West Bank.

Yeah, they need to get a handle on that...

Unfortunately, they won't.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How many posts in one day we gonna get to?

What are you expecting?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2023/10/justin-amash-relatives-killed-israel-airstrike-gaza-church
Former US Rep Amash has family who was killed in Gaza.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

International law is more of a guide aimed at moderating the power of mighty modern militaries, than an actual law. People will still do what they feel is absolutely necessary to get the job done regardless of what international law says on the matter.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1720214205473636437
https://news.sky.com/story/israel-hamas-war-ordinary-life-suspended-in-west-bank-as-israeli-military-imposes-lockdown-and-families-flee-stuart-ramsay-12998991
The ethnic cleansing/pogroms in the West Bank continue.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Also regarding this community:
I found this Emerati news item.
https://www.emaratalyoum.com/politics/reports-and-translation/2020-10-25-1.1413865

To the southwest of the mountains of the city of Hebron in the West Bank, approximately 250 Palestinians live in the archaeological site of Khirbet Zanota, in natural caves and caves, to which stone entrances have been added, as well as inside fabric tents, due to the occupation preventing them from expanding and building new tents.

Al-Tal says, “The village is distinguished by its ancient historical civilization, as it contains the Al-Omari Mosque, which was built during the reign of Caliph Omar bin Al-Khattab, Commander of the Faithful, while the occupation prevents us from restoring its remains that remain to this day.”

This is taken from Google Translate Ara->Eng.
https://www.google.com/maps/search/%D8%B2%D9%86%D9%88%D8%AA%D8%A7+%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D8%AB%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A9%E2%80%AD/@31.3710995,34.9866823,15z
This is where the community is located.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Most definitely these poll respondents are rational. But rightness and rationality are not the same.