Why do pundit House forecasts seem so harsh on Democrats? (user search)
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  Why do pundit House forecasts seem so harsh on Democrats? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Why do pundit House forecasts seem so harsh on Democrats?  (Read 645 times)
Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,705
United States


« on: April 24, 2024, 09:20:44 PM »

Also the demographic that Trump and Republicans more broadly seems to be improving best with is people of color, which is borderline useless in the House except maybe a select few Hispanic seats in the southwest.

Meanwhile Democrats seem to be improving with educated whites, which helps with suburban districts almost everywhere.
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Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,705
United States


« Reply #1 on: April 24, 2024, 09:28:19 PM »

While anything can happen when the House is so narrowly divided, it's reasonable to believe that 2022 was more or less the high water mark for the party under the current house map. The House is going to fundamentally favor Rs for as long as FL, OH, PA, NC, TX and WI are under their control for redistricting purposes. With NY, MI, AZ, and CA all under some form of an independent commission and MD/MA/NJ already maxed-out, IL isn't enough to match the Republicans redistricting power.

FL, OH, and WI didn't change all that much in partisanship from 2020 maps, FL did drop the AA district FL-5 but that's about it.  There's really not a whole lot anyone can do with WI's congressional map anyway.

In TX the Republicans were forced to give up two tossup seats and make them safe D to shore everything else up, that hardly made things better for them and increased the Dem's floor nationally.

Bottom line is that the net effect of 2020 redistricting was overall helpful to Democrats compared to where they were before, so it seems extremely unlikely 2022 is a high water mark.  Especially considering the partisanship of districts changes as the decade goes on.

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