Israel-Gaza war

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

...no? People actually have free will, and it's their fault if they commit crimes. If Gaza turns into a breeding ground for terrorists (strange 'if' as this has already happened), Gazan authorities will be at fault. That's literally how fault works.

Yes, they have free will.

They can go to school, get well-paying jobs, live in nice houses, and pay for good health care.

Oh, wait.

They can't.

What a profoundly strange worldview. Do you think people who can't go to school, get well-paying jobs, and live in nice houses are justified killing people who have those things?

When people think that they have nothing to lose, they don't care whether something is "justified" or not.

He asked if you think it’s justified

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

What is Israel's plan after the current campaign ends?

No home, no work, no education, no health care makes for a perfect breeding ground for terrorists.

Or is the immediate plan still to expel Palestinians from Gaza?

The plan seems to be to permanently occupy a buffer zone near the border, massively fortified as a sort of DMZ to prevent any further incursions with extreme prejudice. The remaining 90% or so of Gaza will likely be rebuilt by the world at large, with little involvement from Israel, but the effectiveness of that will heavily depend on what Egypt does about their border.

If Gaza turns into a breeding ground for terrorists, Israel has only itself to blame.

This is children’s cartoon bad guy logic

He's clearly right though? Assuming that was "the plan" the war would end with Gaza devastated and  with nobody responsible for rebuilding it. It is extremely reasonable to think that a Hamas-like organisation or even Hamas itself would spring back up with the funding and the dedication to fill the void. Israel cannot take no responsibility for what happens in Gaza post-war if it expects this kind of group to stay out of power.

To be clear, I am not saying I agree with it.  I am only agreeing with Ray that this seems to be Netanyahu’s plan.  I agree with you that it is completely non-viable.  Setting aside whether or not it would cause a terrorist breeding ground, until there is an independent Palestinian state, the Israeli government has a moral responsibility to do all it can for Palestinian civilians.  As I’ve said in the past, Israel has a responsibility to do a sort of Marshall Plan to rebuild Gaza’s infrastructure and destroyed homes.  It’ll be expensive, but that’s part of the price of destroying Hamas.  

We should strive to be our brother’s keeper to the extent possible (granted, it is uniquely difficult in a war like this, but you gotta keep trying), not look for technicalities to give us excuses to neglect that responsibility.  If I had my way, Israeli soldiers would be distributing food, basic medical supplies, bottled water, etc to Palestinians in areas they’d expelled Hamas from.  You can’t replace something - even a horrific something - with nothing or a corrupt, incompetent joke of a ruler (the latter is where we went wrong in Afghanistan).  The Israeli sentiment towards how to handle post-war Gaza makes me think of Elie Wiesel’s observation that “the opposite of love is not hate, it’s indifference.”

None of this is to say there is any moral equivalence between Israel and Hamas, but this is a major problem I have with the Israeli approach.  On the Israeli side, there is no acknowledgment of the “you had no choice to except break it, now you’re also responsible for helping fix it” principle.  And this is both morally indefensible and strategically insane.  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

bombed Iraqi synagogues to force Iraqi Jews to emigrate

But AltorBotox told me there was just no way Israelis could in any way be responsible for antisemitic incidents overseas. Never mind the Israeli kid who just a few years ago called in bomb threats to like 50 American JCCs causing a nationwide panic.

Yet Israel doesn't benefit from antisemitism. Sure. Their entire MO is being a "safe space" for the world's Jews. The more inhospitable the rest of the world appears to Jewish people, the more Israel benefits.

I mean, this Israeli government had nothing to do with that terrorist attack, so I'm not really sure what your point is...

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Palestinians did not perpetrate the Holocaust

Netanyahu has of course claimed they did, pretty much.

This isn’t the gotcha you guys seem to think it is.  Almost no one in this thread supports Netanyahu and most of the folks who support Israel in its war on Hamas have been criticizing his policies longer than anyone else in the thread.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

At least 104 people killed and hundreds injured in Gaza while waiting for food, Palestinian officials say

At least 104 people died and 760 were injured in a chaotic incident where IDF troops opened fire as hungry Palestinian civilians were gathering around food aid trucks, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health in Gaza. CNN is unable to independently confirm these numbers.

Civilians had swarmed around newly arrived aid trucks in the hope to get food, when Israeli tanks and drones started shooting at the people in Haroun Al Rasheed Street in western Gaza City, in the Sheikh Ajleen area.

An Israeli official told CNN IDF troops did use live fire on people surrounding aid truck as "the crowd approached the forces in a manner that posed a threat to the troops, who responded to the threat with live fire. The incident is under review."

The aid trucks tried to escape the area, accidentally ramming others and causing further deaths and injuries, eyewitnesses tell CNN.

https://www.cnn.com/webview/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-02-29-24/index.html

Another Very Normal thing that Western Democracies keen to 'minimise casualties' do.

All very normal.

“CNN is unable to independently confirm these numbers”

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1763239063547510928

A few hours later, it was clarified that Austin was referring to numbers from the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry and that the Pentagon could not independently verify these figures, but thanks for playing

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1763239063547510928

A few hours later, it was clarified that Austin was referring to numbers from the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry and that the Pentagon could not independently verify these figures, but thanks for playing

I'm not 'playing'.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The two types of Israel supporters:

1) “Uh ackthually, it wasn’t 25,000 Gazans dead, it was merely 22,000. Get your facts straight.”

2) “I wish it was a million.”

The two types of anti-Israel posters:

1) “Uh ackthually, I don’t support Hamas, I just support the rape, mass murder, and ethnic cleansing of all Jewish Israelis.  Get your facts straight.”

2) “Hamas should finish what Hitler started!”

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The two types of Israel supporters:

1) “Uh ackthually, it wasn’t 25,000 Gazans dead, it was merely 22,000. Get your facts straight.”

2) “I wish it was a million.”

The two types of anti-Israel posters:

1) “Uh ackthually, I don’t support Hamas, I just support the rape, mass murder, and ethnic cleansing of all Jewish Israelis.  Get your facts straight.”

2) “Hamas should finish what Hitler started!”

This is a duplicitous argument and you know ir

Yes, I 100% agree and so is Dule’s post.  My point was that it’s easy to make nonsensical offensive bad-faith BS sh!tposts and this was no different - certainly no more inaccurate - than Dule’s post.  If you thought Dule’s post was fine, but found mine offensive then that suggests bias on your part because they’re basically the same post. 

I also was curious if this would be infracted for excessive hyperbole even though Dule’s was not.  I was pleasantly surprised by the lack of a double standard.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The two types of Israel supporters:

1) “Uh ackthually, it wasn’t 25,000 Gazans dead, it was merely 22,000. Get your facts straight.”

2) “I wish it was a million.”

The two types of anti-Israel posters:

1) “Uh ackthually, I don’t support Hamas, I just support the rape, mass murder, and ethnic cleansing of all Jewish Israelis.  Get your facts straight.”

2) “Hamas should finish what Hitler started!”

This is a duplicitous argument and you know ir

Yes, I 100% agree and so is Dule’s post.  My point was that it’s easy to make nonsensical offensive bad-faith BS sh!tposts and this was no different - certainly no more inaccurate - than Dule’s post.  If you thought Dule’s post was fine, but found mine offensive then that suggests bias on your part because they’re basically the same post.  

I also was curious if this would be infracted for excessive hyperbole even though Dule’s was not. I was pleasantly surprised by the lack of a double standard.

It wasn't even reported. You're a moderator. You know this.

Yes, it was.  You’re literally the moderator who marked Dule’s post as no violation counted.  You know this.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The two types of Israel supporters:

1) “Uh ackthually, it wasn’t 25,000 Gazans dead, it was merely 22,000. Get your facts straight.”

2) “I wish it was a million.”

The two types of anti-Israel posters:

1) “Uh ackthually, I don’t support Hamas, I just support the rape, mass murder, and ethnic cleansing of all Jewish Israelis.  Get your facts straight.”

2) “Hamas should finish what Hitler started!”

This is a duplicitous argument and you know ir

Yes, I 100% agree and so is Dule’s post.  My point was that it’s easy to make nonsensical offensive bad-faith BS sh!tposts and this was no different - certainly no more inaccurate - than Dule’s post.  If you thought Dule’s post was fine, but found mine offensive then that suggests bias on your part because they’re basically the same post.  

I also was curious if this would be infracted for excessive hyperbole even though Dule’s was not. I was pleasantly surprised by the lack of a double standard.

It wasn't even reported. You're a moderator. You know this.

Yes, it was.  You’re literally the moderator who marked Dule’s post as no violation counted.  You know this.

I'm taking about your post.

It can't be infracted if it's not been reported.

It was reported and then marked no violation counted by another mod.  But I apologize if I mistakenly commended you for being fair and unbiased.  Won’t happen again

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The two types of Israel supporters:

1) “Uh ackthually, it wasn’t 25,000 Gazans dead, it was merely 22,000. Get your facts straight.”

2) “I wish it was a million.”

The two types of anti-Israel posters:

1) “Uh ackthually, I don’t support Hamas, I just support the rape, mass murder, and ethnic cleansing of all Jewish Israelis.  Get your facts straight.”

2) “Hamas should finish what Hitler started!”

This is a duplicitous argument and you know ir

Yes, I 100% agree and so is Dule’s post.  My point was that it’s easy to make nonsensical offensive bad-faith BS sh!tposts and this was no different - certainly no more inaccurate - than Dule’s post.  If you thought Dule’s post was fine, but found mine offensive then that suggests bias on your part because they’re basically the same post.  

I also was curious if this would be infracted for excessive hyperbole even though Dule’s was not. I was pleasantly surprised by the lack of a double standard.

It wasn't even reported. You're a moderator. You know this.

Yes, it was.  You’re literally the moderator who marked Dule’s post as no violation counted.  You know this.

I'm taking about your post.

It can't be infracted if it's not been reported.

It was reported and then marked no violation counted by another mod.  But I apologize if I mistakenly commended you for being fair and unbiased.  Won’t happen again

It was reported after your post claiming it had been and after I said it hadn't so my point still stands.

I’m genuinely not sure what point you think you’re making?  From what I can tell you’re salty that I (erroneously, I guess) said I was pleasantly surprised that despite what I consider your pretty blatant biases on this conflict, you seemed to be being consistent and not employing an intellectually dishonest double standard.  From my POV this was me saying “I gotta say, I’m pleasantly surprised to see that despite Afleitch’s strong views on the issue, he’s actually trying to be fair and unbiased after all” and you basically responding in not so many words “liar, how dare you call me unbiased; take it back! “

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It's tempting as it is to assume the current events in Gaza are a one-off blip in an otherwise long running conflict, the death toll in this instance is truly staggering and not at comporable to the past. Hamas terrorism on October 7th was of course responsible for starting the current conflict, by getting rid of any Israeli opposition for the current campagin and people who celebrated it as some glorious decolonail strike are more vacuumes but the  that does change the reality of current events.

More people have been killed in the last 6 months in Gaza by the IDF  than have been killed for the past 50 years of the conflict prior. So many people seem to to be trying to pretend this distinction doesn't matter but the scale of the campagin in Gaza is horrific and there's no actual end in sight for the conflict.  There's no actual proposal for a long term end to the conflict.

For those who are supportive of continuing the war, just how many palestianian deaths are acceptable for elimating hamas ?. The way people like Mr X, Vosem and Patzer act, they seem to think that killing every single resident in Gaza is worth it if it eliminates Hamas.

It would be one thing to have bombed them for a continual campagin of drone strikes and raids into Gaza to eliminate the Hamas leadership as well as a tightening of the existing blockade but the current plan of discriminate carpet bombing has no point but revenge.

Please show me where I have ever advocated “killing every single resident in Gaza.”   

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It would be one thing to have bombed them for a continual campagin of drone strikes and raids into Gaza to eliminate the Hamas leadership as well as a tightening of the existing blockade but the current plan of discriminate carpet bombing has no point but revenge.

There is no reason other than an emotional reaction to believe that Israel's bombings have no point but revenge.  Israel has been consistently clear from day 1 that their goal is to eliminate Hamas and to all appearances they are succeeding, as Hamas presence outside of Rafah has dropped and Israel now appears to be mostly an occupying force dealing with urban guerilla warfare, rather than actively engaged in street-by-street conquest.  Accordingly, targeted bombings and shootings have slowed down dramatically and demolitions these days are mostly related to the destruction of tunnel networks or booby-trapped buildings.

Drone strikes and raids are what Israel used to do but the last few years have shown that this is not enough to remove Hamas.  The tunnel network is too strong.  You have to physically occupy Gaza and go building-to-building taking the weapons and destroying the tunnels.  If the tunnels are under buildings then you have no choice but to collapse those buildings.

It may not seem reasonable -- those buildings are people's homes, after all -- but it is Hamas to blame for this, not Israel.  Those buildings were marked for death the moment Hamas decided to remove the earth in their foundations and build tunnels instead.  Or the minute Hamas decided to fill the corridors with explosives.  Hamas fans were very proud a couple weeks ago when the IDF stormed a building that was lined with explosives and Hamas ignited the building, destroying it and killing 24 Jewish soldiers.  Israel should have just done an airstrike on that building.  But then people would post a video of it and say "look what Israel is doing to our homes.  This isn't about eliminating Hamas this is about revenge."  Hamas got 15 Israeli soldiers in Khan Younis just yesterday. 

Blaming Hamas for the deaths of Palestinians is perilously close to victim blaming.

No, it isn’t and respectfully, that comparison is absurd.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It would be one thing to have bombed them for a continual campagin of drone strikes and raids into Gaza to eliminate the Hamas leadership as well as a tightening of the existing blockade but the current plan of discriminate carpet bombing has no point but revenge.

There is no reason other than an emotional reaction to believe that Israel's bombings have no point but revenge.  Israel has been consistently clear from day 1 that their goal is to eliminate Hamas and to all appearances they are succeeding, as Hamas presence outside of Rafah has dropped and Israel now appears to be mostly an occupying force dealing with urban guerilla warfare, rather than actively engaged in street-by-street conquest.  Accordingly, targeted bombings and shootings have slowed down dramatically and demolitions these days are mostly related to the destruction of tunnel networks or booby-trapped buildings.

Drone strikes and raids are what Israel used to do but the last few years have shown that this is not enough to remove Hamas.  The tunnel network is too strong.  You have to physically occupy Gaza and go building-to-building taking the weapons and destroying the tunnels.  If the tunnels are under buildings then you have no choice but to collapse those buildings.

It may not seem reasonable -- those buildings are people's homes, after all -- but it is Hamas to blame for this, not Israel.  Those buildings were marked for death the moment Hamas decided to remove the earth in their foundations and build tunnels instead.  Or the minute Hamas decided to fill the corridors with explosives.  Hamas fans were very proud a couple weeks ago when the IDF stormed a building that was lined with explosives and Hamas ignited the building, destroying it and killing 24 Jewish soldiers.  Israel should have just done an airstrike on that building.  But then people would post a video of it and say "look what Israel is doing to our homes.  This isn't about eliminating Hamas this is about revenge."  Hamas got 15 Israeli soldiers in Khan Younis just yesterday. 

Blaming Hamas for the deaths of Palestinians is perilously close to victim blaming.

No, it isn’t and respectfully, that comparison is absurd.

I dunno. There are a lot of people who are in fact blaming Palestinians for Paelstinians dying.

I mean, are you conflating Hamas with Palestinian civilians?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It's tempting as it is to assume the current events in Gaza are a one-off blip in an otherwise long running conflict, the death toll in this instance is truly staggering and not at comporable to the past. Hamas terrorism on October 7th was of course responsible for starting the current conflict, by getting rid of any Israeli opposition for the current campagin and people who celebrated it as some glorious decolonail strike are more vacuumes but the  that does change the reality of current events.

More people have been killed in the last 6 months in Gaza by the IDF  than have been killed for the past 50 years of the conflict prior. So many people seem to to be trying to pretend this distinction doesn't matter but the scale of the campagin in Gaza is horrific and there's no actual end in sight for the conflict.  There's no actual proposal for a long term end to the conflict.

For those who are supportive of continuing the war, just how many palestianian deaths are acceptable for elimating hamas ?. The way people like Mr X, Vosem and Patzer act, they seem to think that killing every single resident in Gaza is worth it if it eliminates Hamas.

It would be one thing to have bombed them for a continual campagin of drone strikes and raids into Gaza to eliminate the Hamas leadership as well as a tightening of the existing blockade but the current plan of discriminate carpet bombing has no point but revenge.

Please show me where I have ever advocated “killing every single resident in Gaza.”   

I’m waiting…

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It's tempting as it is to assume the current events in Gaza are a one-off blip in an otherwise long running conflict, the death toll in this instance is truly staggering and not at comporable to the past. Hamas terrorism on October 7th was of course responsible for starting the current conflict, by getting rid of any Israeli opposition for the current campagin and people who celebrated it as some glorious decolonail strike are more vacuumes but the  that does change the reality of current events.

More people have been killed in the last 6 months in Gaza by the IDF  than have been killed for the past 50 years of the conflict prior. So many people seem to to be trying to pretend this distinction doesn't matter but the scale of the campagin in Gaza is horrific and there's no actual end in sight for the conflict.  There's no actual proposal for a long term end to the conflict.

For those who are supportive of continuing the war, just how many palestianian deaths are acceptable for elimating hamas ?. The way people like Mr X, Vosem and Patzer act, they seem to think that killing every single resident in Gaza is worth it if it eliminates Hamas.

It would be one thing to have bombed them for a continual campagin of drone strikes and raids into Gaza to eliminate the Hamas leadership as well as a tightening of the existing blockade but the current plan of discriminate carpet bombing has no point but revenge.

Please show me where I have ever advocated “killing every single resident in Gaza.”   

I’m waiting…

Still waiting…

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I can't pretend to understand much about Israel politics, but it's hard to see how this is even close to a guarantee. Why couldn't the polity that selected Natanyahu in a time of relative peace replace him with someone as bad or worse?

Gantz is only slightly better than Netanyahu - he's pro-settlements (albeit just in the existing areas) and wants to retain large parts of the West Bank.

It’s a low bar, but Gantz will be much better than Netanyahu for several reasons: 1) He won’t proactively work to prevent peace/make the situation worse; 2) he is neither a crook nor an aspiring dictator; 3) His administration will not be stacked with racists who fantasize about committing genocide; 4) His policy on the West Bank will be better than Netanyahu’s if only in that he won’t let the settlements expand further whereas Netanyahu wants to build as many new ones as possible ASAP; 5) He won’t deliberately work to drag Gaza out as long as humanly possible; 6) He will not try to drag the US into the war or start a broader regional conflict; 7) He will not be dependent upon the whims of the Haredi; Netanyahu could end up in prison during Gantz’s time in office which would likely drive a stake through his heart, politically speaking.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Are there any decent estimates of how many Hamas/PIJ et al, commanders are left? Surely they've taken heavy casualties.

Last updated 3/17/2024

EDIT: Updated Marwan Issa’s status

By most accounts, the mid-level leadership of Hamas - especially its mid-tier military commanders - has been largely decimated (sans the military commanders for Rafah-based brigades).  Ironically, Israel has had far more success in this conflict wiping out the next generation of Hamas leadership than the current one.  It’s also tricky b/c the Mossad has far better intelligence on the West Bank it does Gaza by most accounts.  Plus, Hamiyah’s death would just mean Mashaal replaces him and you risk a real international incident by striking in Qatar, so I doubt Israel risks it unless they are confident they can take out Mashaal and him simultaneously.  Anyway, here is my best answer to this question with respect to the top leaders (I’ll post the status of those I see as key leaders):

Hamas:
- Ismail Haniyeh: Leader of Hamas, Status: Living in luxury in Qatar

- Saleh Al-Arouri: Second in Command of Hamas’ Political Wing, Head of Hamas in Lebanon and Turkey, Military Commander of Hamas in the West Bank, Liaison to Hezbollah, and Liaison to Iran, Status: Killed in Drone Strike

- Khaled Mashal: Former Head of Hamas and Top Advisor to Haniyeh, Status: Living in Luxury in Qatar

- Yahya Sinwar: Head of Hamas in Gaza, Status: Hiding in Gaza

- Mohammed Deif: Head of Hamas’ Military Wing and second in command of Hamas in Gaza, Status: Hiding in Gaza

- Marwan Issa: Second in Command of Hamas’ Military Wing, Deif’s right hand man and top aide, third in command of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, and de facto Chief of Staff of Hamas’ Armed Forces, Status: Killed in Israeli Airstrike

- Mohammed Sinwar: Chief Commander of Hamas military forces in Southern Gaza, Yahya Sinwar’s brother and right-hand man, Status: Hiding in Gaza

- Abu Anas Al-Gandour: Chief Commander of Hamas’ military forces in Northern Gaza, Status: Killed in Israeli Air Strike

- Ayman Nofal: Chief Commander of Hamas’ military forces in Central Gaza, Status: Killed in Israeli Air Strike

PIJ: Much of their leadership was already taken out in an early 2023 conflict.

- Ziyad Al-Nakhalah: Leader of the PIJ, Status: Hiding in Syria or Lebanon

Popular Resistance Committees:

- Rafat Abu Hilal: Leader of the Popular Resistance Committees, Status: Killed in Air Strike

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I’m gonna try to be the change I want to see and shift the focus of my posts in this thread to (hopefully) informative updates about what’s going on in the conflict itself.

Israel just killed Hadi Mustafa, the leader of Hamas’ military wing/armed forces in Lebanon.  While I wouldn’t call Mustafa a top guy, he’s a significant mid-tier commander.  It has been interesting to see the contrast between how Israel targets Hezbollah (taking great care to avoid the major leadership and generally focusing on mid-tier guys who are overseeing recent attacks on Israel) and how they’re targeting Hamas in Lebanon.  They’ve really been going for the jugular with Hamas there and have already done major long-term damage to its ability to operate effectively in Lebanon aside from as some rump group subject to the whims of Hezbollah. 

The strong, efficient machine Al-Arouri meticulously constructed in Lebanon is being taken apart piece by piece and with Al-Arouri dead (and more and more of his top underlinings in the Lebanese branch of Hamas), it’s far from clear Hamas will be able to rebuild it in the foreseeable future even if a permanent unconditional ceasefire happened today.  I think in Lebanon, Israel is well on its way to succeeding in its goal to decimate Hamas’ leadership.

A few other odds and ends:

- Biden has apparently indicated he’ll consider conditioning further US military aid to Israel if it invaded Rafah.  I suspect this is the real reason Netanyahu pulled back some of the Israeli troops that had been gearing up for a Rafah offensive with the economy being a convenient excuse.

- Still unconfirmed if Israel took out Marwan Issa, but it is looking more and more like they got him.  Hamas is reportedly extremely concerned that Issa was among those killed in last weekend’s air strike as it was apparently a direct hit on the exact spot Issa was believed by the rest of Hamas’ leadership to be hiding at the time.

- While it looks like reports of Yahya Sinwar escaping to Egypt were false, it has been confirmed that he and several other major Hamas leaders were able to get their families into Egypt via Rafah.

- In a reversal of how things were last year, apparently Hamiyah and Mashal (the Qatar-based political leadership of Hamas) want to keep going which is causing tensions with the remaining military commanders in Gaza who are exhausted, concerned about supply shortages, and increasingly desperate for even a three week ceasefire.  Conflicting reports about whether Yahya Sinwar has shifted to wanting a ceasefire out of desperation and exhaustion or has entered a delusional “Hitler in the Bunker” mindset where he’s convinced himself Israel will be forced to back down and let him live as the leader of Gaza.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

There seem to be several focus points for Israeli offensives at the moment:

1) They are clearly doing an offensive to take Al-Qarara north of Khan Yunis.  They’ve made decent progress here, although Hamas still controls most of the city.  Depending on how hard Hamas and Israel each fight here, this city could conceivably fall over the weekend. 

2) Israel is slowly but surely creeping toward Rafah from their base in the southeastern corner of the Gaza Strip (Israel immediately took a key airport there in October).  I don’t think this is a Rafah offensive, but they’re clearly trying to position themselves to be able to do a Rafah offensive if Biden blinks before Netanyahu. 

3) Israel seems to be making a westward push from Khan Yunis to the coast (it’s clear a big part of Israel’s military strategy is geared toward forcing city/neighborhood encirclements ahead of an offensive and isolating various sectors of Gaza).  However, this seems to be sputtering out.  Hamas fought like hell for the Khan Younis refugee camp and while it ultimately fell, this delayed operations there by at least a month.  Israel seems to have made a second push for the coast and while they gained ground, the Israeli coastal push seems to have been halted absent a thus far unseen willingness to commit significantly more troops to this offensive.

4) Israel has made several attempts to take Abasan Al-Kabira, a city southeast of Khan Younis.  However, Hamas has fought hard here and Israel has been reluctant to commit too many soldiers to taking the city thus far.  Ultimately, Israel finally took most the city last week and appears to be making a decidedly half hearted effort to take the portions Hamas still controls.  I doubt this goes anywhere unless Hamas decides to pull its remaining fighters there to southern Gaza.

Odds and Ends:

- The IDF has agreed to allow humanitarian aide into Gaza from “a variety of entry points.”  This is almost certainly due to the significant pressure Biden had been quietly applying on Netanyahu on this front.  That said, talk is just that, so we’ll see if Israel actually does this.

- Israel did an air strike on a UNRWA facility in Rafah and took out Mohammed Abu Hasna, basically the guy in Hamas whose job it was to make sure any humanitarian aid in Gaza got seized and distributed to Hamas fighters.  I wonder what he was doing at a UNRWA compound…  Truly, it’s a mystery for the ages   Anyway, even more evidence UNRWA has been essentially co-opted by Hamas. 

- The Head of Israel’s Military Intelligence Department has been fired and seems to be the designated scapegoat for 10/7 catching Israel flatfooted. 

- Neither Israel nor Hamas have been able to confirm Marwan Issa’s status, but he should probably be presumed dead at this point absent the emergence of clear evidence to the contrary given that by all accounts (even Hamas’) it was a direct hit on the exact spot where Issa was hiding at the time.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Odds and ends:

- The Head of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, is claiming Hamas is willing to take a more flexible stance on prisoner exchanges.  What that means in practice is obviously a classic “devil is in the details” situation, but it is a good sign as one major issue in the Qatar talks has been Hamas insisting on the release of all terrorists currently being held in Israeli prisons which is an obvious non-starter.  This is noteworthy because it suggests that previous reports that Mashel* and Haniyeh were digging in for the long haul re: the current conflict (b/c 1) they were personally feeling relatively safe in Qatar and 2) they’d come to see it as a prestige issue) may have been inaccurate.  It just underscores how much about Hamas’ internal politics/dynamics remains unclear.

- I cannot overstate what a big deal Schumer’s speech was or commend him enough for it.  Schumer said what most Jewish-Americans, myself included, are feeling.  In a way it was a Nixon goes to China moment because due to Schumer’s (imo to a fault) strong pro-Israel credentials and extremely close personal relationship with Netanyahu, no one can try to discredit what he said by playing the boy who cried anti-Semitism.  If AIPAC goes after him, for example, they will be laughed out of the room by most of the Jewish-American community.  Schumer is the highest ranking Jewish elected official in American history and has unmatched pro-Israel credentials, so when he forcefully condemns Netanyahu and right-wing Israelis (such as the settler terrorists in West Bank) as two of the four biggest obstacles to peace, folks will take notice.  Whether you’re Horus or Ray or somewhere in between, this is something we should all be celebrating.  

It’s also getting a lot of play in Israel based on what I have read.  It caught Netanyahu completely by surprise and will almost certainly do more than anything Biden could to get it through Likud’s thick skull that America’s patience is not limitless and is running thin.

- Apparently, Israel has all but confirmed that Marwan Issa was indeed killed in that air strike and Israeli intelligence has confirmed this in a briefing to the Israeli cabinet.  However, no official public announcement will be made any time soon until Hamas acknowledges Issa’s death.  Hamas is refusing to comment on Issa’s death, although several articles have reported that anonymous sources within Hamas have indicated that the group believes him to be dead and is especially concerned since Issa was acting as a liaison/communication link between Hamas leadership and the brigade commanders, some of whom have now lost all contact with leadership).  I will update the Hamas leader status tracker on page 260 when I finish this post.

- Speaking of Issa, reports are starting to trickle out implying that unlike Al-Arouri - who was killed b/c 1) he got sloppy and did a meeting in a location Hezbollah warned him Israel knew about and 2) multiple people had their cellphones on during the meeting - Issa’s location was discovered through an Israeli intelligence source within Hamas.  This could definitely be Israeli disinformation, but if I were Hamas then that possibility would still scare the hell out of me.

- Not much military news to report today

- Apparently tensions between Hamas and Abbas are starting to flare up again.  I doubt much comes of it though.

*Incidentally, Mashel has historically, along with the late Al-Arouri, been traditionally considered part of the more pragmatist wing - relatively speaking - of the top Hamas leadership in contrast to the even more hardline wing of the top Hamas leadership (ex: Haniyeh, the Sinwar brothers, and the late Ayman Nofal).  

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I really appreciate these tangible updates on what's actually happening in the war.  When 99% of the news is about politics surrounding the war, it's pretty much impossible to filter down to what's actually happening on the ground.

Thanks, like I said, I’m trying really hard to be the change I want to see in what’s being focused on in this thread.  You’re right that it’s not easy to track down tangible updates about what’s happening in the war.  Weekdays are a bit easier because of the greater volume of stories, but it took me over an hour of research yesterday to sift through all the pro-Israel and anti-Israel political commentary to find out what was actually going on.  Anyway:

- So far this weekend has been (relatively speaking) quiet-ish militarily, although the Israeli push to the sea in Gaza appears to be sputtering out as I suspected and Israel has taken a control of a bit more of the Al-Qarara.

- Katie Porter “Champion of Democracy” award winner Netanyahu predictably responded to Schumer’s speech by rejecting calls for new elections and indicating he will not hold them until the latest possible date (2026 iirc), although he was a lot more reserved than in his responses to Biden’s criticisms suggesting at least a dim understanding that he’s pissing folks off more than he realized.  

- In Tel Aviv, the Israeli government used fire hoses and mounted police to violently break up a peaceful anti-war protest.  The excuse was essentially “they’re blocking traffic, so we have no choice but to go Bull Connor on them”

- Tensions continue to grow between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority over Abbas’ de facto appointment of one of his buddies as Prime Minister.  Abbas just had the new Prime Minister publicly blast Hamas for causing the current conflict and condemn Hamas for inflicting “this Nakba [referring to both the civilian deaths and mass displacement]…a worse catastrophe than 1948” upon the Palestinian people in Gaza.  Abbas’ puppet PM also condemned Hamas for refusing to hold elections which is kinda funny given that - along with somehow making the PA’s corruption problems even worse - one of the two biggest criticisms of Abbas has been that he has refused to allow elections in the West Bank.

Anyway, this is a major shift for Abbas.  Abbas and the PA had largely been siding - at least in their rhetoric - with Hamas despite not doing anything in the conflict itself (although one could arguably read the lowkey involvement of the Al-Aqsa Martyr’s Brigade as a tacit endorsement of what Hamas did) with Abbas initially branding 10/7 as Palestinian freedom fighters engaging in heroic self-defense and taking weeks to even acknowledge that so much as a single civilian was killed on 10/7.  While Hamas and the PA had reconciled a little bit (“a little bit” is admittedly doing a lot of heavy lifting) in recent years, it seems like Abbas has made a calculated decision to pick a fight with Hamas while they’re busy fighting the IDF in Gaza.  One wonders if we’ll see a return to the days of the PA being rumored to be tipping off Israel about Hamas and PIJ safe houses/operations in the West Bank.  

It’s also notable that this comes like two and half months after Al-Arouri died as IIRC he was both the guy behind the lowkey warming of relations between Hamas and the PA, as well as basically the sole leader of Hamas in the West Bank.  Much like he was with Hamas in Turkey, Al-Arouri basically was Hamas in West Bank.  I could easily see the PA waiting a little after his death and seeing no one able to fill the void, deciding now was the time to pick a fight with Hamas on favorable turf.

- An aid ship was able to successfully deliver 200 tons of food to Gaza City.

- Anonymous Hamas sources have privately confirmed that Marwan Issa was killed.  The Commander of Hamas’ Central Camp Brigade, Razi Abu Tomeh, was also killed in the same air strike.

- Zaher Al-Jabarin, Al-Arouri’s right hand man and basically the leader of Hamas’ fundraising/money laundering operations, is apparently Al-Arouri’s replacement.  While hardly a nobody, he doesn’t loom nearly as large.  He’s basically a glorified money guy and I doubt he’ll be anywhere near as effective as Al-Arouri was.  Al-Arouri had exceptional diplomatic skills and a gift for organizing/running the day to day operations of strong Hamas branches from afar.  However, because of how much he liked to keep his branches firmly loyal to him rather than neutral in Hamas internal politics, the only one that could really stand on its own without him was Lebanon and that’s being systematically taken apart piece by piece.  Al-Jabarin is not the guy you send to rebuild/build a new branch of your group, he’s the guy you ask to find the money to fund someone else’s efforts to do so.

- Ceasefire negotiations have resumed in Qatar.  Unclear if either side has taken any meaningful steps toward softening demands.


- Hamas has started murdering leaders of local clans in Gaza in an effort to keep the growing anger towards them among Gazans (note: anger at Hamas does not mean they’re not also pissed at Israel, it sounds like most Gazans at this point hate both sides in this conflict which…I mean…can you blame them?).  Apparently, Hamas made it known that they’d kill Palestinians who went to try to get aid directly rather than the unwanted scraps of aid Hamas had gotten its hands on and this backfired badly.  Not only were folks so desperate for food that they basically called the bluff, but it reminded some folks there why they hate Hamas and Israel rather than just Israel.  Hamas got anxious its grip was slipping in parts of Gaza it controlled and killed some clan leaders to try to deprive this anger of a potential figurehead/rallying point.  Time will tell whether they nipped things in the bud or just caused an even bigger backlash.

- Netanyahu reportedly approved a plan to attack Rafah, but it’s unclear if this is a “yes, we’re doing this in the near future” plan or an “if/when we actually do this, here’s how it would go” plan.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

While things remain relatively quiet militarily, it has been an eventful past few days:

- Netanyahu has clearly been spooked by Schumer’s speech.  While he continues to publicly insist a Rafah offensive is the only path forward, The Israeli government has apparently recently been having secret discussions with Biden administration, officials to develop and alternative plan instead of the planned offensive against Rafah.

- Israel conducted a major raid/attack on one of the largest hospitals in the Gaza Strip in an operation that perfectly illustrates how tricky a situation this war can be.  On the one hand, Israel knew the hospital was being used as a safe refuge by many sick and elderly individuals.  On the other hand, it was clearly being used by Hamas militants who opened fire from the hospital windows and during the operation, Israel killed 40 Hamas terrorists including a pretty important Hamas leader (albeit decidedly mid-level within the top Hamas leadership): Faiq Mabhouh, the Head of Internal Security for all of Hamas, was hiding in the hospital and almost certainly the target of the operation.  Then again, was he worth assaulting a major hospital complex where you know about 3,000 civilians were genuinely sheltering.  Perfectly captures how this can all get so messy and morally complicated.

- There have been some claims Mabhouh was in contact with UN representatives, but these don’t seem super credible to me and I can’t find them confirmed by any major news outlets, so I’d recommend treating this claim as baseless speculation/disinformation/pro-Israel propaganda if you encounter it.

- An Israeli air strike on Rafah killed Mohammed Abu Hasna, the head of Hamas’ operations unit in Rafah

- Apparently afraid of seeming politically impotent, Netanyahu has started publicly responding in a more typically hyperbolic and disingenuous fashion to Schumer’s speech although it’s pretty clear it rattled him.  

- National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has indicated that the U.S. has been able to officially confirm Marwan Issa’s death.

- North Gaza is apparently expected to be suffering from mass famine even with humanitarian aid until at least the end of May.  This is a terrible situation, there’s no two ways about it.

- An Israeli airstrike killed ~20 people, Hamas says these were civilians and Israel hasn’t commented yet on the purpose of the air strike or if it hit its intended target.  Make of that what you will…

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://www.pewresearch.org/2024/03/21/views-of-the-israel-hamas-war/prc_2024-3-21_israel-hamas_1-02/

This is another interesting poll. Just confirms the anti-Israel crowd comes mainly from Muslims and white religiously unaffiliated and not mainline black churches.

Obviously it's understandable why Muslims are more likely to justify Hamas' actions but we need to examine these religiously unaffiliated under 30 voters more rigorously. Quite a bunch of these far leftists have major mental disorders and their antisemitism is really a front for some deeper issues. Mainstream educational institutions should stop teaching people that this is a hopeless country and start reflecting on some of the damage done in the social media era.

This is pretty offensive.

No it’s not, it’s a brutally harsh take but it matches the data from the “uncommitted” votes which were mainly places like Dearborn, college campuses but not inner city Detroit. I’m sorry if you don’t want to believe it but younger leftists under 30 tend to believe antisemitic tropes more than any other group outside of the far far right.

No, it is. You're implying that anyone who has any mild criticism of Israel is an anti-Semite or mentally ill. It is extremely offensive, so I suggest you rethink what you typed.

I am really only saying (and I think Devils30 is only saying) that anti-Semitism and mental illness are common among those who criticize the Israeli war effort in Gaza, which I think all decent people everywhere in the world should support. There are many quite valid criticisms of Israel (consider the size of their welfare state!) -- but the ideas that the war effort is unjustified or cruel are not among them.

No, You and him are trying to equate mental illness with criticism of Israel, and that's extremely offensive, even if your own warped sense of morality refuses to accept that. So quite frankly, shut the hell up on this.

I am only trying to equate mental illness with criticism of the conduct of the war, not with all criticism of Israel.

Stop