I've been on Atlas for almost 15 years and many, many election cycles. In that time, here are some of the takes that caught on here:
Romney was going to easily beat Obama in 2012
Allison Lundergan Grimes would beat Mitch McConnell in 2014
Hillary would easily win in 2016
"Resistors" would propel Beto O'Rourke to victory over Ted Cruz
Biden was gonna get the 413 map (his 2020 map + Texas, NC, Ohio and Iowa) in 2020
The Republicans were headed for a Red Wave in 2022
And last year, that Andy Beshear was "in trouble" in KY, and Brandon Pressley was going to win in MS
After all that, I've learned not to take our predictions too seriously. There's a lot of overreacting, dooming and concern trolling. At the end of the day, we're all a bunch of armchair quarterbacks.
Idk who will win this year, but I wouldn't bet any money based on fickle Atlas consensus that changes daily.
Here's what I do know:
Trump has a rock-solid base and may benefit from anti-Biden sentiment, but his legal troubles and his actions on issues like abortion and Jan 6 are extremely concerning to the type of voters he needs to win.
Meanwhile, Biden is dealing with a major schism in the Democratic Party over Israel, voters understandably have concerns about his age, and high prices continue to weigh heavily on people. However, he is an incumbent running a very disciplined campaign in a period of economic growth; history shows that will be hard to beat.
That points to a very competitive election!
Again, gaslighting at the highest order! People can't afford anything right now because of the high interest rates. The Jobs Report today: Much weaker. The Economy has peaked. It will likely go downhill from here.
