FL: Cherry Communications: Trump +9, +9

[2016]

Remember - the Biden stooges are flexing that Biden is staffing up in Florida. Don't be surprised if they come in this thread to unskew this poll to tell us that Biden is down by only 2% in Florida

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=586741.0

It's over for them. Trump gets 58 % of Florida Hispanics. Trump got 47 % in 2020 per FL EXIT POLLS. An 11-Point Swing towards Trump. For sure he'll win Miami-Dade County with those sort of Numbers.

[2016]

Sounds reasonable. I don't think it'll be R+20 this year, but Florida is gone.

A Florida Win for Trump almost ensures that we will be waiting a long time before the Presidential Race is settled again because I don't think he'll lose Texas, Ohio, Iowa and North Carolina either.

We're going to have to wait for Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and possibly Arizona and Nevada to come in.

2024 could be the year where the Senate is called earlier then the Presidential Race cause we don't have any kind of Runoffs this year.

Big, big warning signs for Biden & Mucarsel-Powell that the Abortion Amenment gets 61 % of Support and it has almost ZERO Impact on the Presidential & Senate Contests.

[2016]

FWIW this has the abortion amendment at 61/29.  Suggests significant success in decoupling the presidential vote from the abortion vote. 

Democrats thought the Abortion Amendment would help Biden & DMP in the Presidential & Senate Races. Looks like it has no impact at all on those Races.

Trump gets 58 % of Florida Hispanics and Rick Scott is even higher winning 2 out of 3 FL Hispanics.
If this is true it suggests that DeSantis winning Puerto Ricans in 2022 wasn't a one-off.

Rep. Darren Soto & Rep. Jared Moskowitz clinging to dear life with these sort of Numbers.

[2016]

FWIW this has the abortion amendment at 61/29.  Suggests significant success in decoupling the presidential vote from the abortion vote. 

Democrats thought the Abortion Amendment would help Biden & DMP in the Presidential & Senate Races. Looks like it has no impact at all on those Races.

Trump gets 58 % of Florida Hispanics and Rick Scott is even higher winning 2 out of 3 FL Hispanics.
If this is true it suggests that DeSantis winning Puerto Ricans in 2022 wasn't a one-off.

Rep. Darren Soto & Rep. Jared Moskowitz clinging to dear life with these sort of Numbers.

While Florida Hispanics are different from other states, this feels like the kind of movement that would also generationally shut the door on Blue Texas.

Texas has a lot of Mexican Hispanics, very different than Florida.
DeSantis became the first Republican Governor Candidate in 2022 to win a "Core Democratic Constituency" in the Sunshine State, PUERTO RICANS. The Hispanics from that tiny Island generally backed Democrats over the last decade but the new Poll is suggesting that there might be a massive realignment on that Subgroup as well.

Needless to say Biden cannot win FL or being competitive without Puerto Ricans. If he loses that Group along with Cubans & other Latin America Hispanics we are truly looking at an epic margin for Republicans here come November.

[2016]

Bidens Job Approval according to the Florida Chamber of Commerce/Cherry Communications Poll is 37 % with a whopping 63 % Disapproving of Biden.

[2016]

Trump gets 58 % of Florida Hispanics and Rick Scott is even higher winning 2 out of 3 FL Hispanics.
If this is true it suggests that DeSantis winning Puerto Ricans in 2022 wasn't a one-off.

Rep. Darren Soto & Rep. Jared Moskowitz clinging to dear life with these sort of Numbers.

If that's true, i don't believe for a second Trump will only by 9 points.

He gets as much as DeSantis.

And the whole bottomline so far is Trump also making inroads with AA voters.

Rubio won only 55% of Hispanics. And Trump here would take 58% and we aren't even talking about people who say they would favour an independent over Biden (or are undecided atm).

Trump winning 58% of Hispanics basically suggests a +15 win at least, possibly +20. Unless other demographics groups dramatically shift in favour of Biden, which might relative to the 2022 elections be true. But given Biden is struggling with urban demographics, such as Afro American voters, young voters. And given the panhandle also rural AA's, than Florida might actually back Trump stronger than thought on election day.

Which ironically would be a continuation of the trend set in 2016 and 2020 (and also 2018 + 2022).

With numbers like that, Palm Beach County would be in play.

Well, the CBS YouGov Poll has Trump only up 52-47 among Hispanics over Biden. That though is still a 10-Point Shift from the 2020 Exit Polls in FL when Biden won Hispanics over Trump 52-47.

The most interesting plot among Latinos I am looking at is whether Trump wins a Democratic-leaning constituency, PUERTO RICANS. They have generally back Democrats over the last 15 years or so but they did go for DeSantis & Rubio in 2022. They were pretty mad at Trump in 2020 for his handling of Hurricane Maria. Biden got 72 % of the Puerto Rican Hispanics in 2020. Meanwhile DeSantis won 56 % of Puerto Ricans in 2022 & Senator Rubio 54 %. Astonishing for a Group that gave Biden 72 % of the Vote in 2020. We are talking about a 50-Point shift here. If that happens in November Democrats are DEAD in Florida I can guarantee you that.

[2016]

Trump gets 58 % of Florida Hispanics and Rick Scott is even higher winning 2 out of 3 FL Hispanics.
If this is true it suggests that DeSantis winning Puerto Ricans in 2022 wasn't a one-off.

Rep. Darren Soto & Rep. Jared Moskowitz clinging to dear life with these sort of Numbers.

If that's true, i don't believe for a second Trump will only by 9 points.

He gets as much as DeSantis.

And the whole bottomline so far is Trump also making inroads with AA voters.

Rubio won only 55% of Hispanics. And Trump here would take 58% and we aren't even talking about people who say they would favour an independent over Biden (or are undecided atm).

Trump winning 58% of Hispanics basically suggests a +15 win at least, possibly +20. Unless other demographics groups dramatically shift in favour of Biden, which might relative to the 2022 elections be true. But given Biden is struggling with urban demographics, such as Afro American voters, young voters. And given the panhandle also rural AA's, than Florida might actually back Trump stronger than thought on election day.

Which ironically would be a continuation of the trend set in 2016 and 2020 (and also 2018 + 2022).

With numbers like that, Palm Beach County would be in play.

Well, the CBS YouGov Poll has Trump only up 52-47 among Hispanics over Biden. That though is still a 10-Point Shift from the 2020 Exit Polls in FL when Biden won Hispanics over Trump 52-47.

That would make more sense and would align more with a +9 victory.

The most interesting plot among Latinos I am looking at is whether Trump wins a Democratic-leaning constituency, PUERTO RICANS. They have generally back Democrats over the last 15 years or so but they did go for DeSantis & Rubio in 2022. They were pretty mad at Trump in 2020 for his handling of Hurricane Maria. Biden got 72 % of the Puerto Rican Hispanics in 2020. Meanwhile DeSantis won 56 % of Puerto Ricans in 2022 & Senator Rubio 54 %. Astonishing for a Group that gave Biden 72 % of the Vote in 2020. We are talking about a 50-Point shift here. If that happens in November Democrats are DEAD in Florida I can guarantee you that.

For that, i guess we will have to wait till election day. But I suppose a shift will happen some way or the other, because anti-incumbency and Hurricane Maria no longer being relevant.

And good chance, Biden will have a chance to redeem himself because Atlantic Hurricane Season is almost certain but guaranteed to be one of the most active Atlantic hurricane seasons ever. it doesn't look good. Of course there's still a chance that like 30 hurricanes create but that none would really strike the USA directly. That is still a possibility. And even in a mild season you can have the bad luck of a pretty bad hurricane striking the USA and otherwise not much activity.

Atlantic Ocean and MDR (main development region) is record warm
WAM (West African Monsoon) will be very active.
We will transition into La Nina most likely which favours hurricane development and low shear levels needed to generate hurricanes.

Literally every single metric is pointing in the wrong direction atm there.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1790864490893844649

On April 24, the University of Pennsylvania (UPenn) issued their prediction of a record-breaking season, predicting an unprecedented 33 (±6) named storms. They cited expected moderate La Niña conditions and record-warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic tied to large-scale warming.

Well, even if a Hurricane does strike Florida (And I hope it doesn't) the State has a pretty good crisis Manager in Governor DeSantis. The way he and the Florida Emergency Department handled Hurricanes IAN (2022) and IDALIA (2023) was pretty darn good.