Glasgow East by-election

[Harry Hayfield]

Westminster : Glasgow East

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Result 2005
David Marshall, Lab    18775   60.68%
Lachie McNeill, SNP     5268   17.02%
David Jackson, LDm     3665   11.84%
Carl Thomson, Con     2135    6.90%
George Savage, SSP     1096    3.54%
Labour majority of 13,507 (43.66%)
SNP swing needed to gain 21.83%

[Harry Hayfield]

Scottish Labour by-election record 1997 - 2007
February 2nd 2006: Dunfermline and West Fife: Lib Dem GAIN Lab -17%
September 29th 2005: Livingston: Lab HOLD Lab -10%
December 21st 2000: Falkirk West: Lab HOLD Lab -16%
November 23rd 2000: Glasgow, Anniesland: Lab HOLD Lab -10%
September 23rd 1999: Hamilton South: Lab HOLD Lab -29%
November 6th 1997: Paisley South: Lab HOLD Lab -13%

Average Labour Change: -16%

[Harry Hayfield]

Betting Exchanges at close of polls: % probablity of wins:

Labour 83% SNP 17%

[Harry Hayfield]

Adam Boulton: "close" between Lab and SNP. Unlikely Lab will get anywhere near 60% of the vote. Nothing to suggest that Lab will get good news from Glasgow East even if they hold the seat. Lib Dem vs Con battle for third place.

[Harry Hayfield]

Assuming that we have 26,217 votes cast and an SNP majority of 1,000 (according to BBC Scotland) that works out as a Lab to SNP swing of 26.03%.

[Harry Hayfield]

CNN International Headlines (in order of broadcast):
Obama speaks in Berlin
SNP gain Glasgow East

Quote from last night: "This will be the first and last time that John Mason and Barack Obama will be mentioned in the same programme!"

[Harry Hayfield]

The BBC has just produced an interesting graphic:

Composition of the House of Commons 2005: Lab 54% Con 30% Lib Dems 10% Others 6%

June 2008 Average of Opinion Polls: Con 45% Lab 26% Lib Dem 19% Others 10%

Nothing wrong with that you may think, but explain this:

Lib Dems 2005: 62 seats (10% of total)
June 2008 Average: 35 seats (which is not 19% of the total despite the fact there's a massive 19% above the Lib Dem benches)

The actual seat tallies produced in the graphic are: Con 201 Lab 110 Lib Dems 35 Others 15