2024 Third Party and Independent Candidate General discussion

[Harlow]

Any updates on the Greens? Is it still pretty much just Randy Toler?

Same thing we do every time, A-S.

https://twitter.com/drjillstein/status/1722641795568259561

I laughed out loud when I saw this. She was supporting Cornel West just this summer when he was running with the Green Party, but now that he went independent I guess she decided to do it herself.

She may end up with more ballot access than he has simply because of the party line lol

[Harlow]

So wtf is the difference between her and Cornell West?

She's got more of an anti-vaxx and Russian asset vibe

These are pretty weird statements to make for someone who is supposedly anti-vaxx.

https://twitter.com/DrJillStein/status/1483172308437114892?s=20

https://twitter.com/DrJillStein/status/1387110893209665541?s=20

https://twitter.com/DrJillStein/status/759470407346823168?s=20

[Harlow]

Libertarians had a great night on the 7th, so they could in theory do really well on Election Day.

They did? How so? I didn't hear about any strong Libertarian candidates running anywhere.

Libertarian Lily Wu won the mayoral election in Wichita, Kansas, so maybe that's what they're referring to.

[Harlow]

I find the concept of there being "debates" this general election cycle to be very abstract at best. I can't imagine Biden (or Trump tbh) being willing to share the stage with someone he believes is an anti-democracy authoritarian. And I especially can't picture either of them wanting to share the stage with Kennedy even if he was polling above the 15% threshold.

Plus, a debate would just further highlight Biden's clear cognitive decline.

[Harlow]

https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1739596836560683171

No one but the media and some Bernouts care about Cornel West. He’ll be as impactful as Jesse Ventura.

I think a lot of people haven't quite realized that given that West is way more telegenic, famous at least within a certain sphere, and better at giving a good quote than Jill Stein. That said, you're absolutely right that Cornel West is running a Potemkin campaign and won't be on the ballot basically anywhere while Jill Stein will be on the ballot in many relevant states.

Shorter answer: Arab-Americans in Michigan upset with Biden won't be threatening to vote for West, they'll be threatening to vote for Stein or RFK Jr. (Honestly starting to revise my early skepticism of RFK as he's proven to be more serious about this than he originally did and think he might be a way bigger factor than I initially thought)

West will ultimately be out of the race entirely, because I don't think supporters will fund a campaign that isn't even trying to gain ballot access. Cornell West is basically Roseanne Barr 2.0 at this point.

I still don't understand why he didn't just stay with the Greens?

He basically complained about having to go through the primary process, since the Greens weren't just planning on coronating him.

[Harlow]

Cornel West just posted a tweet announcing the launch of the “Justice for All” Party, then deleted it.

[Harlow]

Trump and RFK Jr are sparring for the first time

https://twitter.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1752805359276757377

Wow. RFK Jr is going for the rare "Trump didn't kill enough Americans with his handling of COVID" lane.

Worked great for Desantis!

[Harlow]

Few things come to mind right now but I'll just point out one for now:

In the event RFK Jr DOES go for the Libertarians, it's also very possible they deny him the running mate of his choice, which could lead to a hilarious situation where they just saddle him running with some random no name Libertarian activist. Because the Libertarians nominate President and Vice President separately that's always a possibility and it's an extremely fun possibility.

Rooting for RFK, Jr. and Vermin Supreme, somehow (the VP candidate in 2020 was basically a mini version of Vermin Supreme).

[Harlow]

Shameless.

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1756848309157654656?s=20

[Harlow]

https://twitter.com/CaelemSG/status/1756854141660561460?s=20

[Harlow]

Dems are obsessed with stopping 3rd parties which is why less people buy their "democracy" stuff. I've never seen any other political party feel entitled to people's votes.

Their obsessed with not letting Trump get elected (which third parties will do) so our democracy doesn't have the possibility of ending. Such terrible people!

Then Biden should be a better candidate that appeals to more people with a better message that makes more people want to vote for him.

But no, the easy route is to just bar people from the ballot.

Pretty sure he objectively is. Sorry if you can't see that!

"Biden is a good candidate who appeals to voters and therefore Democrats are right to expend energy blocking other candidates from appearing on the ballot" just is not a position that makes sense if Democrats want to be the party of protecting democracy. If they were secure in Biden's electability, they wouldn't worry about third party ballot access.

[Harlow]

Dems are obsessed with stopping 3rd parties which is why less people buy their "democracy" stuff. I've never seen any other political party feel entitled to people's votes.

Their obsessed with not letting Trump get elected (which third parties will do) so our democracy doesn't have the possibility of ending. Such terrible people!

Then Biden should be a better candidate that appeals to more people with a better message that makes more people want to vote for him.

But no, the easy route is to just bar people from the ballot.

Pretty sure he objectively is. Sorry if you can't see that!

"Biden is a good candidate who appeals to voters and therefore Democrats are right to expend energy blocking other candidates from appearing on the ballot" just is not a position that makes sense if Democrats want to be the party of protecting democracy. If they were secure in Biden's electability, they wouldn't worry about third party ballot access.

What does this even mean? No one can ever be secure in anyone's position. We literally won't know until Election Day. Why would anyone assume anyone is going to win, especially after 2016? What we *do* know is that third parties siphon off votes from candidates who *can* win versus third party candidates who *do not* have a chance at winning. Why is this so hard? I seriously don't understand how people can be like this when the danger of Trump is looming right over our heads.

Democrats can make this case during the campaign if they like. But that's still not an argument for trying to block third party candidacies from the ballot, and it's a reason why I can't take Democrats claiming the election is about "protecting democracy" seriously.

If Democrats really wanted to protect democracy, they would help expand voter choice, not try everything in their power to limit it. Then they'd have more of a claim to the "protecting democracy" label.

[Harlow]

https://twitter.com/polisci4bimbos/status/1773523114296476093

No idea what to make of that Green Party of DE account or tweet. The account hasn’t been active since 2020 and is full of a bunch of normie anti-Trump content (and even approving retweets of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris). My guess it’s some random person who happened to have access to the social media of the state party, but there were no tweets about any kind of electoral or party organizing from what I could tell.

And then one day they probably took some really powerful drug and rambled about dolphin-human babies. I don’t know.

Also, I thought his defense of taking his donation was incredibly weak, but Cornel West calls everyone “brother” or “sister” including Donald Trump. It’s a rhetorical device he uses as a pastor and doesn’t necessarily imply personal fondness, so I don’t know why that was the part of that statement that got amplified.

[Harlow]

https://twitter.com/polisci4bimbos/status/1773523114296476093

No idea what to make of that Green Party of DE account or tweet. The account hasn’t been active since 2020 and is full of a bunch of normie anti-Trump content (and even approving retweets of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris). My guess it’s some random person who happened to have access to the social media of the state party, but there were no tweets about any kind of electoral or party organizing from what I could tell.

And then one day they probably took some really powerful drug and rambled about dolphin-human babies. I don’t know.

Also, I thought his defense of taking his donation was incredibly weak, but Cornel West calls everyone “brother” or “sister” including Donald Trump. It’s a rhetorical device he uses as a pastor and doesn’t necessarily imply personal fondness, so I don’t know why that was the part of that statement that got amplified.

Not to get sidetracked, but there actually is a lot of very interesting science about the connection between dolphins and pregnant women. Dolphin's use sonar to communicate and is heavily theorized that they can see a fetus basically like an ultrasound.

The more you know.

[Harlow]

The Libertarian party is worsening its membership numbers and financials by expelling the San Fran chapter of the party. I await the day the Seattle chapter goes.

What happened here?

[Harlow]

The Libertarian party is worsening its membership numbers and financials by expelling the San Fran chapter of the party. I await the day the Seattle chapter goes.

What happened here?

The Mises caucus does not like libertarians who form alliances with progressives.

Context? I can't find any news about this from a Google search.

[Harlow]

Question for the thread: do we think Cornel West is even nominally "in the race" by November? I can't get over his only having 26k Cash on Hand at the end of February. He's going to have difficulty making the ballot even in states that have a nominal thousand dollar filing fee, let alone ones that actually require any signatures.

I have a strong hunch he drops out of the race in like June/July and by summer five way polls will be asking Biden/Trump/RFK Jr/Stein/The Libertarian (by which point we'll actually have a name).

Maybe he'll be Stein's running mate.

How the Green party isn’t viciously attacking him for stealing their thunder and campaign platform is beyond me.

I think Jill is holding out hope that West will drop out and endorse her when he realizes ballot access is too difficult. I wouldn't be surprised if they were having private conversations. Here's her tweet after he announced he was ditching the Green Party primary:

https://twitter.com/DrJillStein/status/1709982608904339651

“In deciding to run as an independent, the West campaign leaves behind the ballot lines they would have had access to, as well as the guidance of experienced ballot access staff and Green volunteers familiar with the process in most of the 50 states. We expect this will be a formidable obstacle in the coming months.

“Though Dr. West won’t be running with our team, he is offering an inspired, courageous example to voters and candidates alike. We believe he is making an immeasurable contribution to the 2024 election, and for that we are deeply grateful. Given our similar visions and agendas, we will continue to look for synergy on the road ahead.”

[Harlow]

RFK Jr is so unpopular, even RFK Jr is going after him:

https://twitter.com/AdamParkhomenko/status/1786580640395137503

Is this supposed to be like a Jimmy Kimmel mean tweets segment?

It's clearly supposed to be a populist "the establishment is pressed about me because they're terrified of my big brain ideas" appeal

[Harlow]

For what it's worth (almost nothing), there are now three Kennedy lawn signs up in my part of western Mass, and maybe one or two Biden or Trump signs (but I've paid less attention to those).

[Harlow]

Starting next month I'll be posting the Libertarian nominee every month as well.

Speaking of which, any guess as to who the Libertarians are going with? I have no ears on the ground as far as Libertarian preferences go.

If Mises have their way, Rectenwald. Otherwise I'd say Mapstead or Oliver.

Reading the Mises strategy document for the Convention, they hint at their caucus not being fully lined up behind Rectenwald as they are so sure in what they say about most things but not the case of his candidacy, but they still endorse him as their candidate. I wonder if that's to allow the potential of a candidate that's not theirs win, he flops in the general, and then they can claim that they don't own it. Because I think Rectenwald flops as well, but if Oliver flops, they can point to that as rejection of that wing of the party.

Mises' main goal is control of the party, not who the presidential candidate is.

What is the threshold for a Libertarian candidate "flopping" this time around? Finishing behind the Green Party?

[Harlow]

Speaking of the Reform Party, sports Youtuber Jon Bois released a fantastic documentary about their rise and subsequent collapse recently (Parts 2 and 3 are on Patreon, and worth the subscription imo).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NqqaW1LrMTY&t=1s

[Harlow]

Their logo/slogan for the convention being "BECOME UNGOVERNABLE" is so obviously terrible in various different ways, lol.

[Harlow]

Nominating a gay guy is, by itself, probably the coolest thing the Libertarian Party have ever done.

[Harlow]

https://twitter.com/angela4LNCChair/status/1795512208748875804

Is this the chair of the Libertarian party, encouraging people to vote Trump. What has happened to the party?

Oh dear. She actually thinks Trump will put "one of them" (whatever that means) in the cabinet.

[Harlow]

For what it's worth (almost nothing), there are now three Kennedy lawn signs up in my part of western Mass, and maybe one or two Biden or Trump signs (but I've paid less attention to those).

Update on anecdotal Kennedy support in Western MA: have in the past weeks seen a new Kennedy 2024 banner appear in the storefront of a local artist, a Kennedy bumper sticker, and overheard a man in a restaurant talking about voting for Kennedy (though it seemed like he lived in Connecticut).

It does feel like there's more visible support for Kennedy than either Biden or Trump around here right now, though obviously that doesn't translate into vote support.