Why do pundit House forecasts seem so harsh on Democrats?

[ottermax]

The running argument for why 2022 was a good year for Democrats was lower turnout causing more high-information voters to show up.

If the opposite is true then 2024 should fundamentally favor Republicans.

Then for CA specifically the primary results for Democrats were quite poor. None of the target seats held by Republicans were particularly close, especially compared to 2022. On the other hand a couple seats seen as safer for Democrats like CA-47 were essentially tied in the primary which doesn't bode well. (That being said I think CA is one of the few states where the turnout dynamic still matches the traditional one where presidential years will favor Democrats just due to the sheer advantage Democrats have among non-white voters).