Pennsylvania Statewide Discussion

[wbrocks67]

2015: 26%
2017: 20%
2019: 29%
2021: 22%
2023: ~31%

Philly turnout will actually be higher than even 2019 when Trump was in office, and the highest % turnout for an off year election since 2003 - no small feat given its a Biden presidency too. Obviously again, not a great number isolated by itself, but in the context of philly elections, pretty substantial

https://twitter.com/micahmj11/status/1722352821335409127

[wbrocks67]

2015: 26%
2017: 20%
2019: 29%
2021: 22%
2023: ~31%

Philly turnout will actually be higher than even 2019 when Trump was in office, and the highest % turnout for an off year election since 2003 - no small feat given its a Biden presidency too. Obviously again, not a great number isolated by itself, but in the context of philly elections, pretty substantial

https://twitter.com/micahmj11/status/1722352821335409127

Could Shapiro's automatic voter registration order be a reason for this?   It seems like it might have helped quite a bit.

Hm its possible, but I also think it was implemented so late in the election cycle (before the cut off of voter registration) that I'm not sure how much of an impact it had. I'm hoping the Inqurier or someone does an article on where turnout was the best in Philly, like they did in the primary. I'm very curious if black wards turned out for Parker, or if this was more of a white liberal uptick closer to Center City.

[wbrocks67]

I find it kind of interesting that McCaffery was the only Dem running for court statewide to lose Erie (albeit narrowly), while also being the only one besides Beck to win in Berks.

From what I can tell, it looks like the GOP/Carluccio actually outspent/out-aired Dems in Erie in the PASC race, so that seems to be why from what I can gleam. Because otherwise, Dems did great in Erie in every other race except for PASC.

Similar in Lackawanna, where even Matt Wolf won by like 21, while McCaffery by 16. Must've been spots where Ds did not spend as much - I think they likely focused a ton in SEPA and Allegheny, which is why I think Berks really overperformed for Ds. Same with Northampton and Lehigh performing really well for Ds too - and then the same for the Allegheny ring counties that also did pretty well for Ds.

[wbrocks67]

Very interesting and well-written article about what sort of implications these races could have for 2024-

https://pennsylvaniapowered.substack.com/p/pennsylvania-supreme-court-postmortem

Great article (he's a great follow on Twitter too)

The point being here is that the Republicans have lost the plot in PA numerous times over the last few years. It's getting very hard to believe that suddenly the tide is going to turn for them just because Trump is on the ballot. The article makes the point well too that, yes, Trump voters who didn't vote this year will be back next year. But the GOP also still has a LOT of room left to fall in numerous counties in PA, and even the ones that were looking good for them (Berks especially) were awful this year. Given the trends of PA and where people are, it's not looking great for the GOP. They're maxing out, and they still have more room to fall in vote-rich SEPA.

This ain't 2021 anymore. Comparing Brobson's performance in SEPA especially to Carluccio's is just night and day.

No one is saying Biden is winning PA by 7 next year, but I'm sorry, with 3M+ votes cast this year, you can't look at this state and say Trump is up by 4 right now.

[wbrocks67]

I don't expect Ds to do this again in 2024 (ignore Erie), but it is quite interesting that they did *extremely* well in all the specific places they targeted with their $$$

Also pretty sad for the GOP that they literally outspent Ds 3:1 in Erie and... just barely won.

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1724612749718892994

[wbrocks67]

Also, despite a concerted effort to get more Republicans to vote by mail this year, it barely made a dent.

2022 VBM: 78.4% Fetterman, 19.1% Oz
2023 VBM: 78.0% McCaffery, 22.0% Carluccio

[wbrocks67]

Overall statewide turnout is looking to be about 36%, the highest at least this century for an off year election.

On the higher side was:
Bucks - 43%
Chester - 43%
Montgomery - 42%
Allegheny - 41%
Delaware - 38%

[wbrocks67]

Overall statewide turnout is looking to be about 36%, the highest at least this century for an off year election.

On the higher side was:
Bucks - 43%
Chester - 43%
Montgomery - 42%
Allegheny - 41%
Delaware - 38%

Impressive. Wish Philadelphia was higher though. Would have raised the margins for the judicial elections even higher but a win is a win so im not complaining.

I'm actually looking at it the opposite way: if we can get this kind of turnout in the collar counties around Philadelphia in 2024, we may not need to rely as heavily on Philly and Pittsburgh to deliver a statewide victory. Of course you want to maximize turnout in Philly as much as possible, but it seems like the higher the turnout in those collar counties, the more favorable it is for Dems.

Yep- you of course want Philly to be high as possible, but there should be a massive concerted effort in SEPA this time around, even moreso than this year or before. The campaigns clearly targeted SEPA specifically this go around, and it not only had huge effects for the 4 collar counties, but outlining counties like Berks as well.

[wbrocks67]

Because of the recent court decision on now being able to count mail-in ballots that had a missing or wrong date on them, Philly ended up counting an additional 1625 VBMs, which broke 90-10 for McCaffery. His lead is now over 7.00% statewide:

McCaffery (D): 1,650,459 -- 53.51%
Carluccio (R): 1,434,195 -- 46.49%

Lead - McCaffery: +216,264 (7.02%)

Since the state hasn't certified yet, still looking to see if every county will do the same. Pretty crazy though that 1625 ballots were going to be discarded simply for just missing a date or another small user error.

[wbrocks67]

McCaffery won PA-07 by 10% and PA-08 by 2.6%

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1729530646987477471

[wbrocks67]

Looks like counting is just about done. Dems actually had their best overall lead in the Superior Court race (+7.10% overall), a smidge above McCaffery's margin (+7.04%.) Wolf was the worst performing D, which isn't surprising since last I checked, he basically spent nearly nothing and was much less funded than McCaffery, Beck and Lane. Basically he got carried a lot by the other 3. There was also a bit of an undervote though, too. Nearly 3.09M votes in the PASC race, but just over 3.00M in the Superior Court race and 3.05M in Commonwealth. So a good amount of people who did not vote in all 3 races.

Justice of the Supreme Court
McCaffery (D): 1,652,113 — 53.52%
Carluccio (R): 1,434,945 — 46.48%
Lead: McCaffery +7.04%

Judge of the Superior Court
Beck (D): 1,572,023 — 28.03%
Lane (D): 1,431,550 — 25.52%  [total: 53.55%]
Battista (R): 1,353,555 — 24.13%
Smail (R): 1,251,817 — 22.32%  [total: 46.45%]
Lead: Democrats +7.10%

Judge of the Commonwealth Court
Wolf (D): 1,602,116 — 52.45%
Martin (R): 1,452,330 — 47.55%
Lead: Wolf +4.90%

[wbrocks67]

Estimates for minority voters this year:

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1737485425181118860

[wbrocks67]

Any chance Rs can win back the House in 2024?

The chamber is so close, it's definitely possible.

[wbrocks67]

Any chance Rs can win back the House in 2024?

The chamber is so close, it's definitely possible.

it could flip February 13th with the special election.

It could, but that one seems unlikely. PA Dems have been on a hot streak with specials and the seat is even bluer downballot than Prez suggests (reg D+18)

[wbrocks67]

Looks like McCaffery had considerable crossover support:

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1737940659426984435

[wbrocks67]

"But all of the crosstabs with sample sizes of 40 people are saying..."

- A certain trio consisting of blue, yellow, and green avs we all know and love.

Using an off-off-year judicial election with turnout ~50% of what it was in Nov. 2020 as rock-solid evidence to disprove Joe Biden's weaknesses with low-propensity non-white voters is not really the own you and most "green" avatars think it is.

I mean, it certainly says something when the margins with nonwhite voters in PA are similar whether it's 70% turnout or 40% turnout. Means the voters are pretty set, given a small margin here or there. That's the point. No matter what the turnout is, specifically in PA, nonwhite voters don't really change a whole ton in their voting preference.

[wbrocks67]

Bizarro rightfully busts out the gate in tying Jan 6 to Garrity:

https://twitter.com/pennslinger/status/1742540957873012958

[wbrocks67]

This is interesting - you don't really normally hear anything about DeFoor but there certainly can now be an election denier angle.

https://twitter.com/LauraShadlePA/status/1744073652809637914?s=20

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1745865537563881785

[wbrocks67]

I'll have to wait for Bonier's further data, now I'm unclear if he means it was a +9 advantage in turnout % or purely the makeup of the electorate.

For reference, in 2022, it was:

Electorate:
D 45.5%
R 43.8%
I 10.7%

Turnout:
R 67.8% (2.37m)
D 60.8% (2.46m)
I 43.5% (578k)

[wbrocks67]

My gut instinct, atm, is that Bizarro wins but Kenyatta loses. Not sure about AG, will have to see who the Dem nominee is.

If I had to pick between the two, I'd say Bizarro, but mostly because Garrity is a much weaker opponent than DeFoor is. DeFoor has some skeletons in his closet, but as of right now, he's generic R to voters. We'll see if that changes. Bizzaro has done a much better job at already trying to frame Garrity as extreme, while Kenyatta hasn't even touched DeFoor yet.

[wbrocks67]

Kenyatta is under fire for calling Pinsley racist for some reason. I still think he’s favored in the primary, but I may well vote for DeFoor again if he’s the nominee. Will need to see both candidates’ proposals.

On the AG side, I’m voting Solomon but think Stollsteimer is the strongest candidate in the general. His record is rather incredible—dude put together the framework to reduce homicides by 70% in Chester, PA. DePasquale likely has a geographic advantage in the primary with multiple Philly area candidates in the race. Bradford-Grey and Khan both seem to garner more progressive backing.

Curious to see what Kenyatta says when Pennsylvanians re-elect the black Tim DeFoor in November.

Meh, DeFoor is literally the most unknown person to the electorate. That could either help or harm him; too early to say at this point.

[wbrocks67]

PA Dems - who are you voting for AG?

Since Kenyatta and Bizzarro pretty much have their primaries wrapped up, the AG race still seems open. Originally I was thinking Depasquale based on name rec, but I do like that Solomon is from Philly and he seems to be gaining some traction.

[wbrocks67]

And we're back

VBM requested: 738,991
Dem: 550,851 (74.5%)
Rep: 180,914 (24.5%)

VBM returned: 7,695
Dem: 5,494 (71.4%)
Rep: 2,098 (27.3%)

Dem return rate: 1.0%
Rep return rate: 1.2%

[wbrocks67]

Speaks for itself on why the PA GOP bench is so horrific.

https://twitter.com/John__Cole/status/1776654654341873681