2010 Mid-Term Elections

[Padfoot]

The Senate looks very promising for the Democrats, not a single Democratic seat is a tossup seat--they are all Republican seats.

On the other hand, the House is going to be hard to defend. Although I think we'll hang onto our majority, albeit slightly reduced.

My predictions:

Senate:
60-64+ Dem
40-36- Rep

House:
230+ Dem
200- Rep

I think that's a bit to optimistic.  There are several Democratic seats that, under the right conditions, would be competitive.  Republicans are positioning themselves to hit Reid hard.  Plus, Obama's cabinet choices have caused some major headaches for the Democrats on the Senate front.  He's added two seats (NY and DE) for them to defend, one of which will be open.  Not to mention that Bennet is an untested statewide candidate, Burris was appointed by a disgraced Democratic governor, and Gillibrand is likely to face a primary challenge from the left.

That's not to say the GOP doesn't have some major problems of its own with 4 open seats to defend, 3 of which are in swing states.  Plus they have several vulnerable and/or unpopular incumbents who Democrats are already targeting.

All in all, Senate Democrats will probably have an easier time than Senate Republican in 2010 but I don't think we can go so far as to assert they won't be on the defensive in at least some states.  I think Democrats are actually better positioned in the House, especially if Republicans continue to whip their members together on every single issue.  I think Democrats could flip up to 20 more seats but I think they'll also be losing 10-15 they currently hold.  If I had to make a prediction right now I'd go with something close to this:

Senate: 61D-39R
House: 264D-171R

[Padfoot]

  I think Democrats could flip up to 20 more seats but I think they'll also be losing 10-15 they currently hold.

yeah, not going to happen.....

Why not?  I'm guessing that the types of legislation that will be coming through Congress over the next two years will force at least a couple dozen members of the House on both sides to make some hard decisions about going with their district or their party.  Depending on what their decisions are and how the legislation fairs, they may end up displeasing their constituents.  Not to mention that they'll probably be some open seats, deaths, and resignations that could cause some changes.  So I really don't think a Dem net of +5 with about 20-30 seats changing hands is that far fetched.

[Padfoot]

The 2010 Democrats will certainly break 60 seats in 2010 just as the Republicans did in 2006

Um, I dont think anyone but a few highly delusional Republicans thought they could get to 60 in 2006. 

The talk following 2004 was most certainly that the Republicans would pick up seats.  People forget how long two years it.  Face it, the economy tanked after the Dems took over in 2007, but people stupidly blamed it on Bush.  Without Bush to blame, crushing defeats should be in store for the Democrats.

Thats a bunch of bullcrap.  The economy had been weakening since mid 2006 when there was almost zero growth in the third or fourth quarter.  The economy is likely to rebound in early 2010. 

Economy aside, I think the original point remains valid which is something I've been saying ever since election night.  Democrats could very well face a tough election year in 2010.  The Republicans had everything in their favor after 2004 and look what happened.  If the public feels the Democrats have dropped the ball then 2010 could be a bad cycle for us.  This is politics people.  Anything can happen.