2010 Mid-Term Elections

[Mr.Phips]

I'm staying on the sidelines in making predictions right now because what is presently happening to the American/world economy and what will likely happen to the American/world economy before the 2010 elections means to me that only the *most popular* DEM/GOP incumbents in the *most* red states/blue states can be termed "safe" for all intents and purposes.

I mean this with all the seriousness that it sounds of.

There is no way that things will not have gotten better in time for 2010.  The recession started in 2007 and will not last three years.  We are probably pretty close to hitting the trough and the stimulus spending will only help fuel the recover in 2010. 

The last recession we had like this was the 1981-1982 one where the unemployment rate went up to 10%.  The trough of that recession was in November 1982, when the recession was around 15 months old and within a few months, the economy was booming.  Since this recession started in November 2007, the trough should come in May or June 2009.   

[Mr.Phips]

I'm staying on the sidelines in making predictions right now because what is presently happening to the American/world economy and what will likely happen to the American/world economy before the 2010 elections means to me that only the *most popular* DEM/GOP incumbents in the *most* red states/blue states can be termed "safe" for all intents and purposes.

I mean this with all the seriousness that it sounds of.

There is no way that things will not have gotten better in time for 2010.  The recession started in 2007 and will not last three years.  We are probably pretty close to hitting the trough and the stimulus spending will only help fuel the recover in 2010. 

The last recession we had like this was the 1981-1982 one where the unemployment rate went up to 10%.  The trough of that recession was in November 1982, when the recession was around 15 months old and within a few months, the economy was booming.  Since this recession started in November 2007, the trough should come in May or June 2009.   

I don't really want to have to bump this post in a couple of years, buddy, but... 

One other thing - this is a depression, not a recession.

This is not a depression.  If this is a depression, look for capitalism in its current form to cease to exist. 

[Mr.Phips]

This is not a depression.  If this is a depression, look for capitalism in its current form to cease to exist. 

You mean, like, if the government started getting massive stakes in the nation's banks?  And the auto industry?  And if banks stopped wanting to make loans to anyone?

...

...This "recession" is bad news.

More than that.  Im thinking of the government taking over the financial and banking industries completely. 

[Mr.Phips]

The 2010 Democrats will certainly break 60 seats in 2010 just as the Republicans did in 2006

Um, I dont think anyone but a few highly delusional Republicans thought they could get to 60 in 2006. 

[Mr.Phips]

The 2010 Democrats will certainly break 60 seats in 2010 just as the Republicans did in 2006

Um, I dont think anyone but a few highly delusional Republicans thought they could get to 60 in 2006. 

The talk following 2004 was most certainly that the Republicans would pick up seats.  People forget how long two years it.  Face it, the economy tanked after the Dems took over in 2007, but people stupidly blamed it on Bush.  Without Bush to blame, crushing defeats should be in store for the Democrats.

Thats a bunch of bullcrap.  The economy had been weakening since mid 2006 when there was almost zero growth in the third or fourth quarter.  The economy is likely to rebound in early 2010. 

[Mr.Phips]

The 2010 Democrats will certainly break 60 seats in 2010 just as the Republicans did in 2006

Um, I dont think anyone but a few highly delusional Republicans thought they could get to 60 in 2006. 

The talk following 2004 was most certainly that the Republicans would pick up seats.  People forget how long two years it.  Face it, the economy tanked after the Dems took over in 2007, but people stupidly blamed it on Bush.  Without Bush to blame, crushing defeats should be in store for the Democrats.

Thats a bunch of bullcrap.  The economy had been weakening since mid 2006 when there was almost zero growth in the third or fourth quarter.  The economy is likely to rebound in early 2010. 

Economy aside, I think the original point remains valid which is something I've been saying ever since election night.  Democrats could very well face a tough election year in 2010.  The Republicans had everything in their favor after 2004 and look what happened.  If the public feels the Democrats have dropped the ball then 2010 could be a bad cycle for us.  This is politics people.  Anything can happen.

Then you should have voted for McCain.  You knew that Democrats were going to have major trouble in 2010 if Obama was elected and so did I. 

[Mr.Phips]

People got so sick of Bill Clinton that they re-elected him in 96 by even wider margins.

Clinton's win in 1996 did nothing for the Democrats.  In fact it may have even hurt them.  He governed pretty much as a Republican in his second term and kept Democrats from retaking the House in 1998.  Remember, if Democrats have a bad 2010, they will likely be shut out of the House until 2022 because Republicans will control gerrymandering. 

[Mr.Phips]

People got so sick of Bill Clinton that they re-elected him in 96 by even wider margins.

Clinton's win in 1996 did nothing for the Democrats.  In fact it may have even hurt them.  He governed pretty much as a Republican in his second term and kept Democrats from retaking the House in 1998.  Remember, if Democrats have a bad 2010, they will likely be shut out of the House until 2022 because Republicans will control gerrymandering. 

He didn't govern as a Republican.  He didn't govern at all.  Congress governed and mostly we were better for it.  We kept him in check which is what I wish we could do with Obama.

That was my point.  The Republican Congress pretty much had Clinton on a leash and having him in the White House was not that much different than having a Republican there.