United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Flyersfan232]

The Tories have to have been through the worst parliament for any government (and the nation too unfortunately) in modern times. Even they're waiting to be put out of their misery.

this get more embarrassing when yo realize they have a 80 seat majority

[Flyersfan232]

I think it's pretty safe to say Labour will wind up with a possibly historic majority unless polls tighten significantly once the writ is dropped.

best case for the tories is reserve 2019 at this point

[Flyersfan232]

God, can't they just get it over with instead? This is starting to get ridiculous.

canada too

[Flyersfan232]

I wonder how long they maintain the delusion of the '20' part. Perhaps it quietly transforms into 'list of seats lost at by-elections in this Parliament', plus Leicester East (sigh).

Levido apparently told Tory HQ just this week that "it is going to be a hung parliament at least".

tory hq right now https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-YDV6vC2qo

[Flyersfan232]

remember when rishi was popular

[Flyersfan232]

https://youtu.be/TGmTSomnfAM?si=O1RMKlrZ7z6JFVuh

[Flyersfan232]

The canada election comparison comes to my mind is the Liberal one where they accidentally assaulted a teenager, the PM lost his cool with literal preteens and a cabinet minister poked a farmer calling him fat.

irony is we
Might be comparing the next Canadian election to this one

[Flyersfan232]

Exactly — parties stand down all the time in Northern Ireland — unlike in Great Britain, there’s no strong cultural norm that the major ones contest every seat. This is certainly not a case of Alliance and SF sitting down and ‘carving up’ the map between themselves.

In fact, Alliance are still running in both of the seats which Sinn Fein hold marginally over unionists: Belfast North (Alliance polled 10% there last time) and Fermanagh and South Tyrone (where they got 5%). Some pact.

aren’t alliance defacto unionist (( based on a chat with a Irish nationalist friend in ni who said he sooner vote for the uup then the alliance

Although I suspect Alliance standing benefits SF in both of those seats.

In any case, SF standing down in Belfast South is to the benefit of the SDLP and it's as much against the Alliance as it's against the DUP.

EDIT: Also worth noting that in 2022, SF transfers in North Down predominantly went SDLP and more went Green than Alliance; in Lagan Valley they favoured SDLP over Alliance about 75-25 and in Belfast East (where the SDLP were already eliminated) around half the SF vote didn't transfer and the remainder went Green before it went Alliance. It doesn't particularly hurt Alliance, but I don't think Naomi Long is going to be piling up the votes in Short Strand.

[Flyersfan232]

Have a feeling Farage will get in this time

why?

[Flyersfan232]

Stewart is a hypocrite because he is the kind of lover of multinational pro-globalization forums that encourage this kind of thing, but how the  hell did the Tories screw immigration up so badly when it's a pretty clear concern for their core electorate?

https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1798075418714743008

they didnt screw migration they never wanted to lower it they just lied to their voters

[Flyersfan232]

As this abysmal campaign goes forward it becomes increasingly likely the Tories net less than 75 MPs. How will they function? who of that batch could be the next potential leader?

I am putting aside the question of how will they cope in doomsday scenario of less than 20 MPs as I think the 1922 committee will stop functioning

I mean at soem point reform will win seats if the tories keep sknking
There are some people out there who will vote Conservative no matter what and still see Labour as the militant left … So I feel like they have a base of support where there is no chance - none at all, that they have less than 75 seats. Only way I could even concieve of that is reform essentially became the conservative vote in total

Unfortunately for them, the electoral system is FPTP rather than PR. Many millions could vote for them and their seat total could be derisory. The Lib Dems and their preceding equivalents know this.

[Flyersfan232]

Did Reform manage to get candidates in all or almost all constituencies?

we will probably find out soon.

they have a electoral pact with the sdp and tuv