D +14 party ID advantage? Uh no. Oh and please don't show me the party registration numbers in PA as if they mean something. Look at the exit polls to see who actually votes.
Ironic given your statements on Colorado, and most New Hampshire polls we have seen, both of which suffer from the exact problem you describe.
Anyway, you generally have to overstate Democratic party id v. past exit polls to get accurate results just as you have to do the same thing for the Conservatives in England. I am sure there will not be a +14 D advantage on the exit poll, but the polls that use +14 will be vastly closer to the actual result than the ones that use the 2004 exit poll numbers. That was pretty clear over the last few elections.
