2016: The Ultimate Election - Concession or not?

[Reaganfan]

After eight years of Barack Obama, America prepared to elect a new President in the year 2016. Of course, the 2016 campaign began on November 7, 2012, the day after President Obama narrowly won re-election against Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

Obama/Biden: 286
Romney/Jindal: 252

Much like in 2004, the President was re-elected with the state of Ohio being the decisive win. Six states that Obama carried in 2008 flipped to the GOP and the day following the election, the campaign for 2016 began.

By early 2015, the House was still heavily controlled by Republicans with a near-split Senate. Democrats wanted to retain control of the White House for a 12 year period, something that had not occurred since the days of Franklin Roosevelt and Harry Truman.

Republicans were eager to control the White House for the first time since 2009. As the candidates began barnstorming throughout the 2014 midterms and the election drew ever closer and closer, it was often said that Obama's administration was "the fastest two term Presidency in history".

Candidates on both sides began to announce their candidacy for President. Republicans had a much deeper bench of candidates for the nomination.

DEMOCRATS:

(D-NY) Frm. Sec of State Hillary Clinton
(D-DE) Vice President Joe Biden
(D-NY) Gov. Andrew Cuomo
(D-NY) Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand
(D-MT) Frm. Gov. Brian Schweitzer

REPUBLICANS:

(R-LA) Frm. Gov. Bobby Jindal
(R-FL) Sen. Marco Rubio
(R-NJ) Gov. Chris Christie
(R-AR) Frm. Gov. Mike Huckabee
(R-FL) Frm. Gov. Jeb Bush
(R-NV) Gov. Brian Sandoval


Polls in January 2015 show uncertainty in both races.

Who do you support to be the 2016 Democratic Nominee for President of the United States?

Clinton: 32%
Biden: 28%
Cuomo: 10%
Gillibrand: 8%
Schweitzer: 7%
Undecided/Other: 15%

Who do you support to be the 2016 Republican Nominee for President of the United States?

Christie: 18%
Huckabee: 16%
Bush: 15%
Rubio: 15%
Jindal: 13%
Sandoval: 5%
Undecided/Other: 18%

[Reaganfan]

"We have to continue to work on this economy, continue to make the progress we are seeing get made, and under my administration, America will continue to be the economic superpower and the military superpower in the World that fights for freedom."



Vice President Joe Biden stumped hard in Iowa, pitching his case to the voters. Of course, he was ahead in Iowa, although not by much, of his main rival, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Clinton, who stepped down after Obama's re-election, decided to throw her hat in the ring and this time she says, she is serious.

"All the politics involved can be overwhelming. But what is most important is the stake we have in this election. We can fundamentally change this country. It's time for a new beginning."



Governor Schweitzer had all but set up a second home in Iowa since 2013, and despite trailing badly nationally, he was finishing third in most polls in Iowa by late 2015. Schweitzer's main problem was not his experience or charisma or speaking skills, but his more moderate record. Indeed, liberals felt that the two term administration of Barack Obama was a missed opportunity for a more liberal agenda in America. Guantanamo was still open, President Obama had continued many of George Bush's policies, especially with regards to terrorism and the Middle East, and they felt somewhat letdown. Neither Biden nor Clinton appealed to the strong liberal base within the Democratic Party. Indeed, in 2012, this disaffection nearly cost Obama the Presidency.

Schweitzer took to the campaign trail in Iowa as an "everyman".

"I enjoy the outdoors. I love fishin'. I love wildlife. I don't believe you need a far left agenda from New York or Delaware to be a conversationalist President."

Indeed, Governor Schweitzer's biggest upsides are that he is an outsider, and is the only candidate running other than Biden that is not from New York.



Governor Cuomo's base consisted of mostly liberals pleased with his policies and his agenda as Governor of New York. Seen as a staunch liberal, his main competition was fellow New Yorker Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, who, despite having been talked up in political circles as a potential Presidential Candidate, entered the race rather unexpectedly in early 2015, similar to Michele Bachmann's entering the field of the GOP nomination race in 2011. Cuomo and Gillibrand often are at odds with each other.

"What we have done for New York has benefited millions, and with your help, we will do the same for the United States of America".



Cuomo's campaign team pushes his accomplishments. He is neck and neck in New Hampshire polls with Biden and Clinton.

"The time is now to renew America's sense of optimism and hope and rejuvenate our nation and help the millions of Americans in need".



Gillibrand stumped hard on almost the same platform as Cuomo, clearly helping spilt support between herself and the New York Governor.

[Reaganfan]

Republicans have a completely different situation than they had in 2012. While in 2012 the field was weak, lacking of so-called "true" conservatives, the 2016 field is full of so many strong conservatives that for many Republicans, it's hard to choose a favorite.

Governor Christie, re-elected Governor of New Jersey in 2013, is seen by many as the second coming of Reagan. Indeed, many Republicans going back 20 years to the 1996 campaign had been searching for a candidate that could truly capture the magic of Ronald Reagan, and many feel Chris Christie captures that magic.

"Enough is enough. I'm not gonna play their dirty political games. I'm not gonna do what the partisans want me to do. I'm gonna stand by my convictions, I'm gonna fight hard for America!"



Christie's northeastern roots make him a serious favorite for the New Hampshire primary, although he is by far a lock to win it. The Southern strategy is one being carried out by two Southern Governors, Jindal and Huckabee.

Huckabee, now 61 years old, has been out of office since 2007, and has become more of a pop culture icon than a political icon. He hopes to recapture some of the glory of his better-than-anticipated 2008 White House run for 2016.

"America was a nation founded by faith. Faith in families, faith in God, and with Faith we hope to continue towards a more free and just country."



Those supporting Huckabee privately fear that he may have missed his opportunity at the Presidency by deciding against running in 2012. Indeed, many say he would have beaten President Obama had he run for and been the 2012 Republican nominee.

Governor Bobby Jindal is running on his progress in the state of Louisiana and trying to court the Southern vote in South Carolina.

"We need real solutions for our economic hardships. What we have done in Louisiana can be replicated across this nation."



Jindal's biggest liability is the fact that he served as the Vice Presidential nominee for the Republican Party on a losing ticket in 2012. Bob Dole, Ed Muskie, Sargent Shriver, John Edwards, and Joe Lieberman all lost a Vice Presidential run only to falter in their own races for the Presidency. Bobby Jindal is hoping to break that unlucky streak.

Jindal is not the only incumbent Governor running for the Republican nomination in 2012. Governor Brian Sandoval is making a hard-fought campaign for the Presidency as well.

"Nevada has the ability to show America what is possible. We have the opportunity to dramatically change this country for the better."



Sandoval, much like fellow Western Governor Brian Schweitzer on the Democratic side, is running as an "everyman".

Then of course, there is Marco Rubio. Senator since 2011, Rubio is running on a record of strong conservative principles, hoping to unite the base of the Republican Party behind his candidacy.

"There's never been a nation like the United States, ever. It begins with the principles of our founding documents, principles that recognize that our rights come from God, not from our government." - Marco Rubio



Rubio is also gaining support from Hispanics and the biggest share of the youth vote than any other Republican running.

Senator Rubio's biggest problem is Governor Bush. Governor of Rubio's home state of Florida from 1999 to 2007, Bush is hoping to bring the Bush name back to the White House for another four years. After eight years of Barack Obama, and with the strong likelihood of a Republican victory, Jeb Bush hopes that any ill wills about former President George W. Bush are put to rest and that he can not only win the nomination, but also win the general election in 2016.

"Our beliefs are stronger than our doubts. Our faith is stronger than our distrust. Together, we can move forward. Together, we can begin a new era of leadership for the United States of America."

On a positive and negative note, Governor Bush has the support of two U.S. Presidents.

[Reaganfan]

Thank you for all the comments. More coming tonight...

[Reaganfan]

By the time of the Iowa Caucuses, the debates have proven pivotal for some candidates.

Huckabee's humor, Cuomo's infamous scalding of Gillibrand, Biden's memorable lines, and Christie's blunt talk have all had an impact on the horse race, but now it's time for Iowa voters to decide.

IOWA CAUCUS - DEMOCRATS

WINNER - GOV. BRIAN SCHWEITZER


2ND PLACE - VP. JOE BIDEN


3RD PLACE - SEC. HILLARY CLINTON


Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer's Iowa victory sends shock waves throughout the establishment of the Democratic Party. Having basically run an Iowa-campaign, it paid off, and Schweitzer claims in his victory speech that he's "on the way to the White House!"

Biden placed a strong second with Hillary Clinton not far behind. Gillibrand and Cuomo shared essentially the same share of the vote with Cuomo trailing Clinton for a fourth place finish. Nonetheless, Cuomo continues to push for New Hampshire. Some urge Gillibrand to drop out, but she also puts her focus on New Hampshire.

IOWA CAUCUS - REPUBLICANS

WINNER - GOV. MIKE HUCKABEE


2ND PLACE - GOV. JEB BUSH


3RD PLACE - GOV. BOBBY JINDAL


Rubio places fourth, and Christie places fifth. The Iowa Victory is seen as significant for both Huckabee and Jindal, but rather disappointing for Governor Bush. Rubio says he will wait for the Florida primary. Christie is focused on the New Hampshire primary. Governor Sandoval comes in last but vows to fight to South Carolina, to the surprise of many.

[Reaganfan]

Post-Iowa Caucus polls nationally show a fluid race on both sides. No doubt Vice President Biden and Governor Schweitzer benefited most from strong showings in the Iowa caucus, while Cuomo and especially Gillibrand falter. Insiders within the Cuomo for President campaign privately hold anger towards fellow New Yorkers Hillary Clinton and especially Kirsten Gillibrand for syphoning votes away from the New York Governor.

Schweitzer makes a trip to New Hampshire the day after Iowa, and despite having little chance, he begins to rise in national polls.

Who do you support for the Democratic Nomination for President?

Biden: 29%
Clinton: 27%
Schweitzer: 19%
Cuomo: 11%
Gillibrand: 4%
Undecided/Other: 10%

On the Republican side, the Rubio and Sandoval campaigns are both in a state of panic. Sandoval was hoping for a similar effect that Schweitzer had in Iowa, and his poll numbers are significantly low. Rubio was also hoping for a better showing and worries that his strategy for Florida may prove to be too little too late.

Governor Bush is also in trouble. His fund-raising numbers have been dropping steadily ever since November, and now having had a poor second place finish in Iowa despite the ground game and fund-raising, his advisers are trying to find a winnable strategy to use to play out the primary map.

On the flip-side of the coin, Governor Bobby Jindal receives a much-needed boost in polls and in the money collection of his fund-raising following his strong Iowa showing. He hopes to become the Southern alternative to Mike Huckabee and help draw in Bush and Rubio voters.

Chris Christie seems unshaped by all of this, as he was always expected to do poorly in Iowa and instead has himself focused on New Hampshire.

Who do you support for the Republican Nomination for President?

Huckabee: 30%
Christie: 22%
Jindal: 12%
Rubio: 11%
Bush: 10%
Sandoval: 4%
Undecided/Other: 11%

Truth be told, the nominations for both side are still wide open. Head to head match-ups are conducted between the candidates in various electoral scenarios.

Who would you vote for in the general election?

Clinton: 48%
Rubio: 40%

Clinton: 38%
Christie: 51%

Biden: 44%
Christie: 36%

Biden: 53%
Bush: 42%

Cuomo: 35%
Rubio: 45%

Cuomo: 45%
Christie: 45%

Schweitzer: 32%
Bush: 48%

Schweitzer: 30%
Jindal: 42%

Gillibrand: 29%
Christie: 56%

Gillibrand: 27%
Huckabee: 63%

Sandoval: 27%
Biden:  63%

Schweitzer: 42%
Sandoval: 38%

Nonetheless, the ultimate election. The race is completely undecided and anything is possible.

[Reaganfan]

I should note, I have no idea where I should take this. I've drawn up numerous scenarios and electoral maps.

[Reaganfan]

Holy crap, how is Gillibrand doing so terribly?

Almost didn't add her.

[Reaganfan]

New Hampshire comes fast for the candidates, who have been either trying to play out their Iowa success, or downplay their lack thereof.

For the Republicans, it's an easy win for Chris Christie.

NEW HAMPSHIRE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

WINNER - GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE


2ND PLACE - SEN. MARCO RUBIO


3RD PLACE - GOV. JEB BUSH


The Sandoval and Jindal campaigns were not expecting to perform particularly well in New Hampshire, but South Carolina will be considered absolutely critical for both campaigns.

Marco Rubio is hoping his second place showing in New Hampshire will give him some much needed momentum into South Carolina and Florida. Governor Bush is hoping for the same.

On the Democratic side, things are much, much closer.

NEW HAMPSHIRE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

WINNER - GOV. ANDREW CUOMO


2ND PLACE - VP. JOE BIDEN


3RD PLACE - SEC. HILLARY CLINTON


Gillibrand ends her campaign the following day, being the first candidate to end the race for the Presidency. Cuomo receives a significant boost in the polls.

[Reaganfan]

Secretary Clinton begins an aggressive campaign against Cuomo. Indeed, Clinton is falling badly in polls. Democrats have a history of nominating newer, fresh candidates while Republicans tend to stick with the "next in line". Following 2012, the "next in line" for Republicans is naturally Christie or Rubio.

Vice President Biden, having separated himself from the White House during much of the campaign, begins an aggressive campaign in South Carolina and Florida. He hopes momentum in those states will follow through to the nomination.

"Enough is enough with the party politics. I'm Joe Biden and I'm for the average working Joe!"



Vice President Biden's biggest obstacle to the White House may be the Vice Presidency itself. Vice Presidents Nixon, Humphrey, Quayle, and Gore all had their Presidential hopes shattered. Biden hopes he can follow in the footsteps of 1988's election of Vice President George Bush to the Presidency.

The biggest problem for New York Governor Andrew Cuomo is his lack of appeal outside of New England, which also holds true for Governor Christie. Indeed, Cuomo's liberal positions make him a favorite for the left-wing of the Democratic base, but many Democratic insiders fear that would potentially hurt him in a general election against the Republicans.

Governor Schweitzer has been staked out in South Carolina since his Iowa victory, hoping to catch fire again as he did in Iowa. He has a strong grassroots organization and fund-raising numbers are now matching that of Cuomo. Biden and Clinton still hold the lead for Democrats as far as fund-raising goes.

Who would you vote for in the South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary?

Biden: 25%
Schweitzer: 25%
Cuomo: 22%
Clinton: 20%
Undecided: 8%

Who would you vote for in the South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary?

Rubio: 22%
Bush: 18%
Huckabee: 18%
Jindal: 16%
Christie: 9%
Sandoval: 7%
Undecided: 10%

Governor Jindal has received endorsements that have put the Bush '12 campaign into a state of panic. Governor Bush is pushing for a victory in South Carolina and then in Florida, however after poor showings in Iowa and New Hampshire (behind fellow Floridian Marco Rubio), Bush is beginning to feel the heat.

"I am an experienced leader for this state, and I know in the end, we need experience to help lead this nation."

 

Governor Bush makes a plea while campaigning in Florida. Florida's primary is still some weeks away but it makes for a tough fight as polls are completely undecided.

[Reaganfan]

The South Carolina Primary is bitterly fought until the very end on both sides.

Governor Schweitzer holds a rally and attends breakfast in a small diner outside Charleston. Secretary Clinton holds a rally, Governor Cuomo meets with voters in Hilton Head. Governor Jindal has a final large pre-election rally in downtown Columbia. The race is on!

The winner of the South Carolina Democratic Primary...

WINNER - GOV. BRIAN SCHWEITZER


2ND PLACE - VP. JOE BIDEN


3RD PLACE - GOV. ANDREW CUOMO


Clinton vows to stay in until Florida, while Schweitzer begins to skyrocket in national polls.

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY NATIONWIDE

Biden: 31%
Schweitzer: 28%
Cuomo: 24%
Clinton: 10%
Undecided: 7%

For the Republicans, it's a close result.

WINNER - SEN. MARCO RUBIO


2ND PLACE - GOV. BOBBY JINDAL


3RD PLACE - GOV. MIKE HUCKABEE


Failing to receive a majority of votes, Jindal, Bush and Huckabee split the conservative vote, while Rubio pulls many independents. In the end, Sandoval decides to end his campaign for the Presidency, and pressure is on Governor Bush to do so as well, although he vows to fight to Florida.

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY NATIONWIDE

Christie: 24%
Rubio: 24%
Huckabee: 20%
Jindal: 17%
Bush: 10%
Undecided: 5%

Huckabee has the biggest problem. He underperformed on his 2008 South Carolina numbers, and many of his staffers call it quits, despite his victory in the Iowa Caucus. Huckabee refuses to end his campaign given his strong national numbers.

[Reaganfan]

Florida...Florida...Florida.

Bush and Rubio criss-cross the state in the final days. Huckabee campaigns heavily in the Panhandle. Jindal touts his record as a "Gulf Coast Governor". Christie campaigns in Jacksonville.

In the end, Florida for the Democrats proves just as pivitol as it does for Republicans. Cuomo, Clinton and Biden are all vying for victory in the state, while Schweitzer tries to pull off another win. Biden has strong appeal in Florida, especially with older and Jewish voters. He is hoping that will deliver for him. Clinton and Cuomo are fighting for the same voting base of liberals, who appeal much more to Cuomo than Clinton.

In the end, the Democratic Primary in Florida is as follows:

WINNER - VP. JOE BIDEN


2ND PLACE - GOV. BRIAN SCHWEITZER


3RD PLACE - GOV. ANDREW CUOMO


It's a tremendous victory for Biden, who had yet to win a single victory. He vows to win the nomination and head right for the Oval Office. Governor Schweitzer begins to sound more and more like a frontrunner, hiring new staffers across the country. Clinton ends her campaign, much to the displeasure of her base. She had been unable to raise the same amount of funds she did in 2008, and by 2016, it seemed as though her time had passed. Cuomo, still savoring New Hampshire, hopes to be victorious in other states with Clinton out of the race.

On the Republican side, it is a close result.

WINNER - SEN. MARCO RUBIO


2ND PLACE - GOV. JEB BUSH


3RD PLACE - GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE


Despite a second place showing, Governor Bush still came in a distant second. He decides to stay in the race and fight. Governor Huckabee ends his quest for the Presidency, but refuses to endorse any given candidate right away. Jindal's numbers appear to be dropping nationally and his 5th place Florida finish being a Southern Governor seem to hurt him even more.

So the race for the Republicans is up in the air. Rubio, Christie, Bush and Jindal...with Democrats split between Cuomo, Schweitzer and Biden.

MORE TO COME!

[Reaganfan]

A new slew of polling for potential matchups between the remaining contenders show that anything in this "ultimate" election is possible.

National Polls

Cuomo: 45%
Jindal: 42%

Rubio: 50%
Cuomo: 45%

Christie: 44%
Cuomo: 44%

Rubio: 46%
Biden: 43%

Christie: 51%
Biden: 45%

Biden: 51%
Jindal: 44%

Schweitzer: 47%
Jindal: 43%

Christie: 48%
Schweitzer: 44%

Rubio: 47%
Schweitzer: 45%

Bush: 51%
Cuomo: 44%

Biden: 45%
Bush: 45%

Bush: 48%
Schweitzer: 46%

There are still twelve possible match-ups between the candidates and the races on both sides are still undecided!

[Reaganfan]

Nevada's results show a continuation of a very fluid race for both Democrats and Republicans.

NEVADA

WINNER - GOV. BRIAN SCHWEITZER


2ND PLACE - VP. JOE BIDEN


3RD PLACE - GOV. ANDREW CUOMO


Cuomo's poor showing begins to hurt his fund-raising numbers and insiders begin to wonder if Cuomo's campaign will survive. Biden has yet to any state other than Florida, and it seems that his victory in the state gave him momentum going into Nevada.

For the Republicans in Nevada...

WINNER - GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE


2ND PLACE - SEN. MARCO RUBIO


3RD PLACE - GOV. JEB BUSH


Governor Sandoval's dropping out brought many voters to Governor Bush. Nevertheless, the poor showing by both Bush and Jindal begins speculation that both should bow out of the race. Both refuse.

[Reaganfan]

However, Michigan defines another set of victors and another set of vanquished candidates.

MICHIGAN DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

WINNER - VP. JOE BIDEN


2ND PLACE - GOV. ANDREW CUOMO


3RD PLACE - GOV. BRIAN SCHWEITZER


It's Biden second significant victory after Florida. Shortly after Michigan, Biden's polls begin to improve. The Vice President says that he is "in it to win it!"

Cuomo's second place, while a distant second, gives his faltering campaign hope that labor support could help rally his team towards victory. Nonetheless, Biden still holds an advantage with labor union voters.

For the Republicans...

WINNER - GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE


2ND PLACE - SEN. MARCO RUBIO


3RD PLACE - GOV. JEB BUSH


Jindal ends his campaign, nearly broke and falling far behind in the polls. Rubio shows a surprisingly strong second to Christie in Michigan.

NATIONAL POLLS

Democratic Presidential Nomination

Biden: 35%
Schweitzer: 29%
Cuomo: 17%
Undecided: 19%

Republican Presidential Nomination

Rubio: 34%
Christie: 34%
Bush: 12%
Undecided: 20%

Possible Match-ups between contenders

Biden: 48%
Rubio: 45%

Christie: 49%
Biden: 47%

Biden: 51%
Bush: 45%

Rubio: 51%
Cuomo: 44%

Christie: 52%
Cuomo: 44%

Bush: 50%
Cuomo: 46%

Schweitzer: 46%
Bush: 46%

Christie: 48%
Schweitzer: 45%

Rubio: 51%
Schweitzer: 48%

[Reaganfan]

With Super Tuesday on fast approach, the candidates make a mad dash for votes. Governor Bush hopes for a miracle in the Southern primary states, while Governor Christie stumps in New England.

Governor Cuomo is also trying to stay in the race, as Vice President Joe Biden has been gaining big momentum coming out of his Florida and Michigan victories. Governor Schweitzer is hoping to do well out west and in the southern primary states.

ALABAMA

WINNER - GOV. BRIAN SCHWEITZER


WINNER - SEN. MARCO RUBIO


ALASKA

WINNER - GOV. BRIAN SCHWEITZER


WINNER - SEN. MARCO RUBIO


ARIZONA

WINNER - GOV. BRIAN SCHWEITZER


WINNER - SEN. MARCO RUBIO


ARKANSAS

WINNER - GOV. BRIAN SCHWEITZER


WINNER - SEN. MARCO RUBIO


CALIFORNIA

WINNER - VP. JOE BIDEN


WINNER - GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE


COLORADO

WINNER - GOV. BRIAN SCHWEITZER


WINNER - GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE


CONNECTICUT

WINNER - VP. JOE BIDEN


WINNER - GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE


DELAWARE

WINNER - VP. JOE BIDEN


WINNER - GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE


GEORGIA

WINNER - GOV. BRIAN SCHWEITZER


WINNER - SEN. MARCO RUBIO


IDAHO

WINNER - GOV. BRIAN SCHWEITZER


WINNER - SEN. MARCO RUBIO


ILLINOIS

WINNER - VP. JOE BIDEN


WINNER - GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE


KANSAS

WINNER - GOV. BRIAN SCHWEITZER


WINNER - SEN. MARCO RUBIO


MASSACHUSETTS

WINNER - VP. JOE BIDEN


WINNER - GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE


MINNESOTA

WINNER - GOV. BRIAN SCHWEITZER


WINNER - GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE


MISSOURI

WINNER - GOV. BRIAN SCHWEITZER


WINNER - GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE


NEW JERSEY

WINNER - GOV. ANDREW CUOMO


WINNER - GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE


NEW MEXICO

WINNER - GOV. BRIAN SCHWEITZER


WINNER - SEN. MARCO RUBIO


NEW YORK

WINNER - GOV. ANDREW CUOMO


WINNER - GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE


NORTH DAKOTA

WINNER - GOV. BRIAN SCHWEITZER


WINNER - SEN. MARCO RUBIO


OKLAHOMA

WINNER - GOV. BRIAN SCHWEITZER


WINNER - SEN. MARCO RUBIO


TENNESSEE

WINNER - GOV. BRIAN SCHWEITZER


WINNER - SEN. MARCO RUBIO


UTAH

WINNER - GOV. BRIAN SCHWEITZER


WINNER - SEN. MARCO RUBIO

[Reaganfan]

Governor Cuomo delivers a speech the night of Super Tuesday, basking in his home state and New Jersey victory, but clearly momentum is not on his side. The following day, he steps down from the stage but refuses to endorse.



It's clear the race for the Democrats is between Vice President Joe Biden, and Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer.

Governor Jeb Bush, at a rally in Alabama, ends his campaign with his father and brother, the Presidents, at his side. He too refuses to endorse.

With victories from Missouri to New Jersey to California, Chris Christie gives a speech rallying his supporters, telling them he is on his way to the nomination. Nevertheless, Marco Rubio won 12 out of the 22 races that day, just 10 for Christie. Rubio insists to his supporters that momentum is on his side.

One thing is now clear, four men remain in the race for President of the United States. Joe Biden, Marco Rubio, Chris Christie and Brian Schweitzer. One of these men will be President of the United States.

NATIONWIDE GENERAL ELECTION POLLS

Christie: 48%
Biden: 47%

Christie: 47%
Schweitzer: 47%

Rubio: 51%
Biden: 45%

Schweitzer: 47%
Rubio: 47%

Do you approve of President Barack Obama?

Approve: 44%
Disapprove: 50%

[Reaganfan]

Governor Cuomo comes out in support of Vice President Joe Biden. The endorsement is seen as key for the Biden campaign, with the liberal base of the Democratic Party coalescing around Biden. Indeed, Biden's strength against Rubio or Christie would be very strong in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan, whereas a Schweitzer candidacy would be stronger for winning more traditionally red states against Republicans. Much like was the case for Republicans in 2000 and Democrats in 2008, the party out of power, in this case Republicans, have the advantage against the incumbent party.

Senator Rubio makes his case on electability in Washington state, hoping that by carrying a state outside of the south, can show is appeal and defeat Christie for the nomination.

By the week after Super Tuesday, four more states hold their voting.

Louisiana Primary

WINNER - GOV. BRIAN SCHWEITZER


WINNER - SEN. MARCO RUBIO


Nebraska Caucus

WINNER - GOV. BRIAN SCHWEITZER


WINNER - SEN. MARCO RUBIO


Washington Caucus

WINNER - GOV. BRIAN SCHWEITZER


WINNER - GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE


It's victory across the board for Schweitzer, but the Biden 2016 campaign remains certain that they will ultimately prevail. Governor Christie's victory in Washington is solid, but he loses out in Nebraska and Louisiana against Senator Marco Rubio as many former Bush and Jindal voters have moved into the Rubio campaign.

The Maine Caucus shows another win for Christie and Biden.

Maine Caucus

WINNER - VP. JOE BIDEN


WINNER - GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE


Everyone begins to realize that at any moment momentum could switch entirally from one candidate to another. This is critical for all four of the contenders. Indeed, Maryland, Virginia, Hawaii and Wisconsin will be critical for all candidates on both sides.

[Reaganfan]

Everyone begins to realize that at any moment momentum could switch entirely from one candidate to another. This is critical for all four of the contenders. Indeed, Maryland, Virginia, Hawaii and Wisconsin will be critical for all candidates on both sides.

Maryland

WINNER - VP. JOE BIDEN


WINNER - GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE


Virginia

WINNER - GOV. BRIAN SCHWEITZER


WINNER - GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE


Hawaii

WINNER - GOV. BRIAN SCHWEITZER


WINNER - GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE


Wisconsin

WINNER - GOV. BRIAN SCHWEITZER


WINNER - GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE


It is victory across the board for Schweitzer and Christie. Panic begins in the Biden campaign. Schweitzer has the advantage going into the next primaries in Texas and is gaining on Biden in Ohio. Biden campaigns relentlessly in Ohio trying to rally his union support.

Same is true for the Rubio campaign. Marco Rubio knows he has only one shot, and that is to perform well in Ohio and Texas, two states that are too close to call.

Luckily, Governor Bobby Jindal endorses Marco Rubio just before the all important four-state contests. He hopes that this endorsement will give some new life in his campaign.

[Reaganfan]

The Ohio Primary is contested heavily by all four candidates, each needing victory that will be crucial. Vice President Biden rallies union support, Senator Rubio makes stops in Columbus and Cincinnati.

Ohio

WINNER - GOV. BRIAN SCHWEITZER


WINNER - GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE


It's a huge win for Governor Schweitzer. Christie tops Rubio with a 8 point victory. Ohio is considered a battleground state for the general election.

Rhode Island

WINNER - GOV. BRIAN SCHWEITZER


WINNER - GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE


By the slimmest of margins, Governor Schweitzer edges out Vice President Biden. Another blow to a campaign desperate to win. Christie easily takes Rhode Island.

Vermont

WINNER - VP. JOE BIDEN


WINNER - GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE


Biden is able to claim victory in Vermont, but that result is also too close to call for the Democratic Primary for much of the night.

Texas

WINNER - GOV. BRIAN SCHWEITZER


WINNER - GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE


In a shocking unexpected twist, Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey wins the Texas primary. Christie had made several stops around the state, but Senator Marco Rubio had been hoping for a large Hispanic vote to turnout for his campaign. Biden had been far behind to Schweitzer in polling in Texas, but the night is 3-1 for Schweitzer and Biden begins to sense his campaign imploding.

The same is true for Marco Rubio. Both Joe Biden and Marco Rubio decide to remain in the primaries.

NATIONWIDE POLLING

Christie: 64%
Rubio: 25%
Undecided: 11%

Schweitzer: 65%
Biden: 30%
Undecided: 5%

[Reaganfan]

Following wins by Brian Schweitzer in Wyoming and Mississippi, Vice President Joe Biden ends his campaign for the Presidency.

"We thank all our supporters and all the volunteers who worked so effortlessly on our behalf. I also congratulate Governor Schweitzer on a victorious campaign and wish him luck on his way to the White House."


President Obama endorses Governor Schweitzer the following day.

Senator Rubio fights on against Governor Christie. He has some further victories in Wyoming and Mississippi. However, come early April, it's clear that Christie has the upper hand. By mid-April, Rubio officially ends his campaign.

"This was a difficult decision, but I feel it is now necessary to step aside and allow Governor Christie and his team to build a foundation to move towards victory in November."



Thus, by mid-April 2016, the candidates are Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer of Montana and Republican Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey.

Indeed, pundits from both the left and right are enthusiastic about this Presidential election. Statewide polling shows virtually the entire nation is up for grabs. Some polls show Governor Schweitzer ahead in West Virginia and Indiana, while others show Governor Christie ahead in Maine and Oregon. Indeed, the entire electoral college will be up for grabs by the time November rolls around.

NATIONWIDE POLL

Christie: 46%
Schweitzer: 46%

Will America end up electing Chris or Brian? The ultimate general election campaign is about to begin...

---------------


COMMENTS WELCOME!

[Reaganfan]

Governor Christie begins a massive campaign roll-out as the presumptive Republican nominee. He stumps hard from Atlantic City across the nation to Los Angeles. He speaks on how the size of government has been drastically increased over the last eight years during the Obama administration.

"The time is now my fellow Americans. We must rein in government. We must stop the rhetoric, stop the spending, and stop the stupidity!

Governor Schweitzer begins by heading home to Montana for a large rally celebration. He then travels to Ohio, Virginia and makes a stop in Texas. He campaigns hard but does not speak strongly on far left causes.



"You hear Chris Christie talkin' about all the bad stuff Government does. But you never once hear the Governor acknowledge the good things Government can provide for the people. You never hear him speak about the obligation the Government has for the people. Under the Schweitzer administration, yes, people will be held accountable, but we will never move away from our fundamental roots!"

The national polling shows as June approaches that the race is essentially a tie. Schweitzer and Christie rarely break 46% in any national poll, and pundits say neither man has a clear advantage.

Statewide polling is even more bizarre.

Ohio

Schweitzer: 48%
Christie: 45%

New Jersey

Christie: 51%
Schweitzer: 44%

Texas

Christie: 47%
Schweitzer: 44%

Montana

Schweitzer: 53%
Christie: 43%

Vermont

Schweitzer: 51%
Christie: 47%

Wisconsin

Christie: 50%
Schweitzer: 46%

The race is completely up in the air.

[Reaganfan]

What about States like NC, GA, WV and KY were Governor Schweitzer IMO should do very well with? What do you have them states at?

As of July 2016

North Carolina

Schweitzer: 48%
Christie: 46%

Georgia

Christie: 48%
Schweitzer: 47%

West Virginia

Schweitzer: 45%
Christie: 44%

Kentucky

Christie: 51%
Schweitzer: 45%

[Reaganfan]

In mid-July, the Democrats and Republicans are abuzz about who will be the running mates for the two major candidates. The short-lists are leaked via a source on the internet, although both campaigns repudiate the lists which casts some doubts on the validity. The short lists are as follows:

Schweitzer Short List

(D-VA) Sen. Mark Warner
(D-WV) Sen. Joe Manchin
(D-NY) Gov. Andrew Cuomo
(D-NM) Sen. Tom Udall
(D-MO) Gov. Jay Nixon

Christie Short List

(R-UT) Sen. Mike Lee
(R-SD) Sen. John Thune
(R-FL) Sen. Marco Rubio
(R-IA) Gov. Terry Branstad
(R-NV) Gov. Brian Sandoval

Polling shows some running mate possibilities would help or hurt the Democratic and Republican tickets in a general election.

Who would you vote for?

Christie/Rubio: 52%
Schweitzer/Cuomo: 43%

Schweitzer/Warner: 50%
Christie/Sandoval: 43%

[Reaganfan]

Oh, the EV map is going to look crazy on Election Night.

You have no idea... HAHA

In all seriousness, I have so many scenarios it is hard to choose one. I'm truly undecided as to who I want to win. Obviously, I love the idea of a Christie Presidency, but to elect a Democratic Cowboy from Montana is oh-so tempting...

Any more thoughts, ideas or comments?