PA-Muhlenberg College/Morning Call: Obama leads by 7%

[Kalimantan]

But...but there are racists in Philadelphia that won't vote for Obama! Pennsylvania is McCain country!

I'm sorry that what I and countless Democrats in the area say doesn't phase you. I know you're usually one of the first people here to back up your analysis with sound logic so I'm saddened that I'm not living u pto your exceptional standards.

Sound logic = polls
Sound logic != anecdotal evidence

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, my anecdotal evidence isn't "I ran into two people on the street and they said they want McCain. Oh, they're Dems, too, so McCain will definitely win."

I was going around my precinct today to try to get some McCain - Palin signs up on lawns. I'll note that I was only given about twenty signs (reserved for me) because they were flying out of the office. Requests like you wouldn't believe. Anyway, I was going around and saw the former Democratic committeeman outside. I said hello and all and asked him if there was any chance that McCain could get his support (which I was expecting). He looked around and called me over. He told me he couldn't put up a sign because he's "involved politically" (he is a union official) but McCain was definitely getting his vote. He was very excited to see me going around and encouraged me to keep at it. He told me that he's personally working to get his neighbors to support McCain and to get signs up.

It was very encouraging. You guys will continue to brush it off as nothing but I know that these types (especially this guy who usually has an organization at the polls when he has a candidate he really cares about) not going for Obama means something.

My analysis isn't based on anecdotes - look, here's an anecdote to prove it

[Kalimantan]

anecdote is an anecdote is an anecdote. and, as with all anecdotes, there may be some truth to them. But at least admit as much

Thing is, if you were describing why Ohio is being so stubborn, then I'd have a lot of time for these arguments. But you're still claiming that PA doesn't like Obama when the last two polls say +8 and +7 for him. If Obama does 5-6 points worse than his polling on election day, I'll come grovelling, OK?

Instead, I'd love to hear from a PA native where he is getting his margin from, as I trust you when you say that Philly suburbs are not sold.

[Kalimantan]

But you're still claiming that PA doesn't like Obama when the last two polls say +8 and +7 for him.

I'm predicting what will happen on November 4th, not today or tomorrow.

So you're saying that all these disgruntled Dem's around the Philly 'burbs are still telling pollsters they will vote Obama, but will press the McCain button on November 4th? Why would they do that?

[Kalimantan]

But you're still claiming that PA doesn't like Obama when the last two polls say +8 and +7 for him.

I'm predicting what will happen on November 4th, not today or tomorrow.

So you're saying that all these disgruntled Dem's around the Philly 'burbs are still telling pollsters they will vote Obama, but will press the McCain button on November 4th? Why would they do that?

Not really the suburbs but the city itself (where I am from). A lot of people have other "obligations." Their unions and such are pushing for Obama. They don't want to vote for a Republican. Please re-read my story above. The man is a leader in one of the unions. You don't think plenty of the rank and file members are feeling the same way? Plenty of local Democratic leaders have backed me up on this. It's made the news.

I fully understand your anecdote. Its a good anecdote, much better than"my mum aint voting McCain no more". Its interesting too, because if Obama does badly in Philly he's lost the state. However, even though he's doing badly in Philly, he's flying in the polls in PA as a whole. So, what do you think the reason is: 1. Is he doing very well elsewhere in PA, and if so where; or 2. are these people you're talking about lieing to pollsters about their voting intentions. Has to be one of the two, yes?

[Kalimantan]

Aahhh, I think I've found evidence of your anecdote Phil...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTkqosRiyYo


Yep, PA's split.

[Kalimantan]

Aahhh, I think I've found evidence of your anecdote Phil...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTkqosRiyYo


Yep, PA's split.

Dude, I've given my analysis. Don't be insulting (because you have no real arguments) and compare what I say to what is said on FOX. As I said earlier, chill out for five more weeks. If you're so convinced that you're right and I'm wrong then you will have your chance to bust on me for four years. Until then, calm down. Thanks.

Hey, I'm not insulting you, that video's funny. Be flattered, I saw it and thought of you! Lighten up and relax a bit.