Quebec: April 7, 2014

[MaxQue]

How lucky I am.

I have a Conservative candidate in my riding.

[MaxQue]

Speaking of Ungava, my projection shows a narrow Liberal win there. Does that seem far fetched at this point, Max? I have the Liberals picking up Abitibi-Est as well.

Abitibi-Est voting Liberal is totally normal if they win. In every election since 1973 (but 2007), it was voted for the winner.

I don't see Liberals winning Ungava. There is no reason for Native turnout to raise dramatically (and from what I gather, they like the fact the PQ government promised money for housing in the North) and the Francophone areas are hardcore PQ.

Liberals had a strong candidate in 2012 (a long-time mayor of Lebel-sur-Quévillon), not this time (a white lawyer of Kuujjuaq). CAQ is presenting the former mayor of an Inuit nordic village, so inuit vote will be lower than usual for Liberals. I'm not seeing it at all.

[MaxQue]

Speaking of Ungava, my projection shows a narrow Liberal win there. Does that seem far fetched at this point, Max? I have the Liberals picking up Abitibi-Est as well.

Abitibi-Est voting Liberal is totally normal if they win. In every election since 1973 (but 2007), it was voted for the winner.

I don't see Liberals winning Ungava. There is no reason for Native turnout to raise dramatically (and from what I gather, they like the fact the PQ government promised money for housing in the North) and the Francophone areas are hardcore PQ.

Liberals had a strong candidate in 2012 (a long-time mayor of Lebel-sur-Quévillon), not this time (a white lawyer of Kuujjuaq). CAQ is presenting the former mayor of an Inuit nordic village, so inuit vote will be lower than usual for Liberals. I'm not seeing it at all.

Thanks. Would you say Ungava is the kind of riding that is more about the strength of individual candidates (more like Nunavut)?

Anyways, here's my week 3 projection map: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/03/2014-quebec-provincial-election-week-3.html

It does have Ungava going Liberal though

No, it's not really about the strenght of the candidates, but there is usually a massive home and "race".

See, in federal 2011, a Green candidate won some Inuit villages because he was from there and Native. Overall, (go see the map on 506 website), the Inuit vote was all over the place (as usual, with Greens, NDP and Liberals winning villages, with often solid Conservative and Bloc scores). Cree reservations were over 80% for Saganash, a high-ranking Cree official, 90% in his original reservation.

In Abitibi-Est, in 2007, PQ candidate Wawanoloath won 50% in Lac-Simon reservation and 90% in 2008, despite being for independance. The candidate matters much with them (turnout is also heavily candidate dependant).

Through, the Liberal candidate this year is living in Kuujjuak, which may help it this community (the biggest and the capital of Nunavik, with with a significant White population). He is also on the board of the Nunavik housing corporation (which may help, but does people really know members of boards like that?). I expect very good results for the CAQ in Salluit, for the same reasons (former mayor).

[MaxQue]

Chibougamau must be very nationalist.

In the mid-00, Bloc usually polled over 60% there.

[MaxQue]

CAQ will have no candidates in Soulanges, Saint-Laurent and Westmount--Saint-Louis. The Elections Director rejected some signatures (they need 100) on their form.

CAQ said than some people who signed the forms were living in the riding, but weren't on the electoral register and than some people signed under their maiden name while they were under their married name on the register.

[MaxQue]

They don't have until Midnight?

No, Saturday, 2PM.

[MaxQue]

Is this not the first big organized Labour group to switch or to actually come out in favour of one of the parties?

The Montreal council for the FTQ endorsed QS last time, if I remember well.

[MaxQue]

Leger has done a massive poll with lots of regional break downs:

Province wide:

PLQ: 40
PQ: 33
CAQ: 15
QS: 9

Regions (from the front of the Journal de Montreal. Sorry, no QS #s)

Abitibi-Temiscamingue
PQ: 47
PLQ: 24
CAQ: 13

Wierd. I suppose than with number like those, PQ would sweep all ridings (despite the huge margin they will rack in Abitibi-Ouest)?

[MaxQue]

They must have done a very disproportionate survey with a lot of weighting. They only did 300-odd surveys in Montreal out of 3,600 when the Island of Montreal is about 25% of the population of Quebec - if not more

They usually do one poll like that in every provincial election (sometimes two).

Good QS scores in regions isn't surprising, they even bothered to send either David, Khadir or Fontecilla in every region during the campaign and they have real candidates campainging in most ridings (obviously, more effort is put in the urban ridings) and are usually invited in local public debates (which wasn't the case in 2012). Even here, in Val-d'Or, there is signs with Khadir face on the poles.

[MaxQue]

That's not surprising, due to labour's influence in your region (in mining).

No. Miners and mining unions are strongly opposed to Quebec Solidaire (there is a fear in the industry and workers than their policies would cuse mining to be more expensive, reducing the benefits for the business and the incentive for themm to open new mines).

Their base is non-mining unionised workers and social activists (against poverty, pro-regulation on mines...)

[MaxQue]

I still think it will tighten, since yesterday, CAQ and QS stopped attacking Marois and are focusing on Couillard. And the independance debate seems to have faded for now.

[MaxQue]

The elderly and ailing NDP MP from Montreal Lise St. Denis soon switched to the Liberals since they were OK with her not doing any work - she has already announced that she will not run again in 2015.

The ailing NDP MP for St. Maurice-Champlain Lise St. Denis switched to the Liberals because of the sh**t she was getting from the OLO for hiring a few experienced old Chretien hands to run her riding office rather than NDP hacks

I doubt it would be the case. I know an NDP MP which hired the office team of a former PQ MNA, without having problems.

[MaxQue]

So who picks up her seat? The Bloc maybe?

I would say the NDP is slightly favored, over a new Liberal candidate. Bloc, stuck at 17-20%, the same result than last time, can't really hope to gain seats outside its heartlands, which that place isn't.

[MaxQue]

It was held by Liberals until 2004 and provincially, that's probably Liberal (huge Liberal margins in Laviolette).

[MaxQue]

It was held by Liberals until 2004

Though that was mostly (entirely?) because the Liberal candidate was John Christian.

Perhaps, perhaps not. In 1993, yes, but I'm no so sure than Bloc would have won in 1997 or 2000, even if Chrétien wasn't there, especially than the riding was less-Bloc friendly before 2003 redistricting (it literally tore apart Saint-Maurice in two).

[MaxQue]

I should note that if I lived in Quebec, I'd be voting UCQ.

Sadly for you, they are running exactly one candidate (Châteauguay).

I think we can say they are in terminal phase, as Parti Indépendantiste (1 candidate too).

[MaxQue]

Well, once the NDP runs in the next election, there will be no point for the UCQ.

BTW, why isn't the NDP running at least a paper candidate? I know in some provinces for a party to remain registered they have to run at least one candidate. (Like in Saskatchewan, the Progressive Conservatives still run one or two paper candidates)

We had a pretty high limit (I think it was someone like 20 candidates to keep its registration), which was stuck down by courts, after a lawsuit from a small party.

[MaxQue]

I found it, it was 10.

[MaxQue]

Well, once the NDP runs in the next election, there will be no point for the UCQ.

BTW, why isn't the NDP running at least a paper candidate? I know in some provinces for a party to remain registered they have to run at least one candidate. (Like in Saskatchewan, the Progressive Conservatives still run one or two paper candidates)

We had a pretty high limit (I think it was someone like 20 candidates to keep its registration), which was stuck down by courts, after a lawsuit from a small party.

It could be that they're allowed to skip an election.  In BC you have to run two candidates in two elections to maintain registration, which kept the ol' BC SoCreds barely alive until after the last spring election.  I was quite amused to come across some of their lawnsigns in Vancouver-Hastings while I was working for the BC Libs

It was replaced by a 100 members requirement. Communist Party was deregistred after they failed to have 100 members in 2012 (the reason being than they don't run candidates (they are part of QS), they only protect the name from being taken by the federalist Communist Party (the party split in two over national question. The registered party is the independantist one).

[MaxQue]

Disgusting.

I have a great deal of respect for Janette Bertrand, but I fear she is getting senile.

[MaxQue]

Going to vote in a few hours.

[MaxQue]

The Liberals are more left than the PQ? Another reason to be happy about a potential Liberal win.

The article is saying than currently, PQ is more to the left than PLQ.
But, it's very fishy. Apparently, PQ is trending to the left in the last decade and CAQ is at the same place than Liberals.

No.

[MaxQue]

'08 all over again. If the PQ loses, who leads them next? Lisee or Drainville? If Marois wins she'd probably dump Duschesne due to underperformance, that was reported a few weeks ago.

Wouldn't TVA push Péladeau candidacy?

[MaxQue]

For the other question: PKP ran because he wanted to be premier after an interval at Finance. If he can't be premier he'll leave fairly quickly.

Has that been documented somewhere? It seems like a plausible explanation, for sure, but I'd be surprised if even someone like him would be so brazen as to say it out loud.

To clarify, those governments that served two terms had come to the end of their mandate (or very nearly to the end). I would count those as having been forced into an election by term limits. As a contrasting example, David Peterson's Ontario Liberal government had a majority in 1990 and had several years left in its term; he called an election early and was defeated. I'd count that as 'voluntarily submitting to an election'.

Bourassa in 1976. He wanted to surf on the Montreal Olympics success.

[MaxQue]

This is astounding.
 
From the Ipsos poll, voters between 18 and 34 years of age:
 
Lib - 39%
QS - 23%
CAQ - 18%
PQ - 16%

Well, PQ and QS numbers inversed would be more logical, but polls showed than that generation really hates the Charte. But, overall, not surprising. The young generation is quite left-wing (and the next generation coming to the polls seems to be even more left-wing, according to my interactions with them). Counter-effect of the 2008 financial crisis, I suppose. They grew seeing a massive failure of the current economical system, after all.

Short version: I expected that result, but on a smaller age sample (18-24) or in a decade, if PQ doesn't change its course.