Quebec: April 7, 2014

[MaxQue]

So looks like Drainville - minister for democratic institutions among other hats-  violated the Elections Act.

To be fair, that provision of the Elections Act is hard to apply to someone as big as an Cégep or an University. Perhaps a zone restriction around the voting area would be enough.

Normal early voting locations are dedicated to that use during the vote, which isn't the case here.

[MaxQue]

Will it be a massacre?

Well, the electoral map would the good color for that.

On another day, I'll be working for elections, so, I won't be to give the perspective from rural Quebec (Abitibi) before 8PM (the hour polls close and leave).

[MaxQue]

Will it be a massacre?

Well, the electoral map would the good color for that.

On another day, I'll be working for elections, so, I won't be to give the perspective from rural Quebec (Abitibi) before 8PM (the hour polls close and leave).

We expect results from your polling division / precinct

I leave as soon voting is finished, so, I won't/can't be there for counting.
I don't work with a voting box, but rather as a member of the identity verification panel, for people needing special identification (scrutineers can only accepy driving licence/health card/Native status certificate/mititary card/passport) and people taking an oath and having someone vouch for them.

In short, option 2 and 3 of the federal elections (http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=vot&dir=ids&document=index&lang=e), except than 2 documents having together name, address and birth date is also acceptable and than the voucher doesn't need to be in the same polling division and can vouch for as much family members he wants (+ 1 person outside of his family).

All those people come to us. We are 3, and we take decisions at the majority.

[MaxQue]

CAQ vote collasped like a bad soufflé.

[MaxQue]

QS is 3rd in Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques and it's 60-19 for Liberals in Laurier-Dorion.

[MaxQue]

CAQ is wierd. It collapsed in Quebec City area and Eastern Quebec, but grew in Montreal north suburbs.

[MaxQue]

Big Barrette won.

Houda-Pepin lost, but 24% is pretty impressive.

[MaxQue]

It's a close race between PQ and PLQ in Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques, to the surprise of everyone (it always was a Liberal wasteland).

[MaxQue]

QS took the lead in Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques.

[MaxQue]

Still, I agree with pundits and Françoise David than it's a quite sad end for Pauline Marois.

69 votes lead for QS in Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques, with 2 boxes.

[MaxQue]

Not sure why CBC has declared she lost. Trailing by 800 votes with 2 polls, she needs to win each poll by 400 votes. There aren't 400 voters in a poll.

It's now 600 with 3 polls (probably than there was tabulation errors).

[MaxQue]

Is there a reason why it seems there are exactly two polling stations left to report in every riding?

Vote at the election office and off-riding vote?

[MaxQue]

Hey Max, you said Liberals had no shot at Ungava

I'm very surprised by it, Earl. Don't blame me.

[MaxQue]

The famous 2 boxes left in most ridings are the postal vote for people living in foreign countries, TVA said.

But, they begin to be published. The 2 final boxes in Gouin were just published.

[MaxQue]

The famous 2 boxes left in most ridings are the postal vote for people living in foreign countries, TVA said.

I figured it was something like that. I wonder how the electoral district of "Florida" will vote?

I'm thinking Quebecers living abroad are probably wealthy, so perhaps bad news for QS.

USA, especially Florida, is the biggest foreign vote source. France is 2nd, UK 3th.

[MaxQue]

Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques is finished.

QS leads by 91 votes.

[MaxQue]

If two-thirds of Québécois really don't want a referendum, the difficult position of the Parti Québécois is understandable. The late revival of the CAQ suggests demand for more moderate, conciliatory nationalism and secularism. Such a party could easily be one pole of a two-party system.

CAQ is very popular in suburbs, but not at all in cities and regions.

[MaxQue]

You must be insane to support that crowd of hard-core fundamentalists.

[MaxQue]

The Liberals dropped in vote share in just one seat (Arthabaska), while the PQ went up in three (Nicolet-Bécancour, Matane-Matapédia, Soulanges).  The PQ dropped in support in their only new seat (Saint-Jerome), while the CAQ went down in three seats that they gained from the PQ (Bourduas, Deux-Montagnes, Repentigny).

Arthabaska has Sylvie Roy as MNA, a very efficient CAQ MNA. The riding was new in 2012 and much of it has been never been represented by her, so, it might be incumbenty kicking in.

Nicolet-Bécancour had Jean-Martin Aussant as the ON incumbent last time, Matate-Matapédia was created by merging 2 ridings and the incumbent was unknown in half the riding. Soulanges had no CAQ candidate this year, so there was around 25% of vote which was freed.

[MaxQue]

I have sat through many election nights.  The longest was 2000 Bush v. Gore; the shortest was the 2003 Toronto municipal election - 80% of the polls reported by 8:05 while I was still in my car.

But I have never seen anything comparable to what happened to the CAQ last night.  With half of the ridings reporting around 8:30pm, the CAQ was leading in just one seat (according to the CBC).  When all the results were tallied, the CAQ managed to win 22 ridings.  Sometimes you get bizarre preliminary results when elections stretch across five time zones, but I haven't seen such an extreme case.

To reduce delays, election offices are also to start counting early voting at 6PM. So, these results were early voting.

[MaxQue]

Gendron, Maltais and Bedard will all seek the interim leadership. How does the PQ appoint one? Party executive or caucus vote?

The caucus will vote until one gets 50%.

[MaxQue]

Thanks. I hope PKP runs and they elect him leader.

He can't. Interim leader can't run for leadership.
Plus, election is tonight, and he isn't a candidate. Through, Bédard is rumored to be a proxy for him.

[MaxQue]

Thanks. I hope PKP runs and they elect him leader.

On that point, I obviously disagree with you.

I can't support that enemy or labor and workers. He was a terrible and oppressive boss at Quebecor and is still the owner of Sun News, home of Quebec-bashing.

I can't neither support Bernard Drainville, the father of the Charte.

[MaxQue]

Thanks. I hope PKP runs and they elect him leader.

On that point, I obviously disagree with you.

I can't support that enemy or labor and workers. He was a terrible and oppressive boss at Quebecor and is still the owner of Sun News, home of Quebec-bashing.

I can't neither support Bernard Drainville, the father of the Charte.

Given RB's opinion of PQ, I suspect he wants him to be elected leader due to the damage it would cause the party. I could be misinterpretting, though.

Well, I'm pretty sure than Péladeau could be an asset to get back some CAQ voters (at the price of a leakage to QS). I suppose than RB likes him because he is the one the most likely to support right-wing economics.

[MaxQue]

What's happening in the Québec City area? A Péquiste in the city centre, and Liberals around it. I know Lévis was the Canadian Alliance's strongest riding at federal level, so the CAQ vote is not surprising on the south shore.

Probably due to the candidate. At the 2003 by-election, they finished 6th, behind the green and almost tied with Marijuana Party.