Brazil thread 2023-

[Red Velvet]

https://twitter.com/actis_esteban/status/1699433117147185216
Brazil - Yellow
Mexico - Green
Venezuela- Purple
Argentina - Orange
Colombia - Pink
Ecuador - Red

It’s the real numbers that help explain Lula’s and Petro’s difference of approach in regards oil discussions. Though renewable sources are seen as the future, Brazil’s understanding is that it will take a looong time before they become the only or even major option and oil will stay being strategic for the next decades.

The non-stop growth in Brazil curve during three decades (as the tweet says, unimaginable decades ago that we would surpass both Mexico and Venezuela as the regional power on this) shows it’s a cohesive country project, regardless of leadership ideology.

Brazil has also surpassed the USA as the world’s top corn exporter in 2023 and projections say that will keep being the case for 2024 and in the future. The US had been the main global reference on Corn for over a century.

https://twitter.com/apocalypseos/status/1698055383187914826

[Red Velvet]

Mark my words, Lula not being on the ballot will make the next election somewhat competitive than if he was running. He’s the only thing preventing PT from dropping in the polls and being surpassed by PSB or PTB. PT governments won’t outlive Lula’s time on this earth for long.

Not really. These parties don’t have particularly strong names either (with PTB being a right-wing party these days btw) and PT has a strong partisan base regardless Lula.

Lula makes the party stronger because he has broader appeal but there’s at least 10% of people who will vote for PT no matter what as it’s the only party with actual loyal partisan following in Brazil.

Lula will most definitely run in 2026 for the last time ever and then in 2030 I expect Haddad to be his sucessor.

I think 2018 is good parameter, even with strong Anti-PT sentiment that time and Lula in jail, they still got 2nd place with 29% of the vote, which is quite impressive.

PT is a good party overall, which is different from saying it’s perfect. It has a built national structure that will give it a life after Lula, it’s much stronger than PSDB was in terms of base loyalty.

Like, people in the right kinda supported PSDB by default most of times, so much that they usually started very low on polling only to grow a lot during the campaign to reach 2nd place. It was like that in 2014 for instance, where it seemed a sure Marina vs Dilma runoff, until Aécio continuously grew on the polls, with the “undecideds” naturally falling in line.

I don’t really see that happening in the left in the near-future at all. Maybe in a distant future scenario years after Lula, if PT continuously puts out uncharismatic leaders to run and a better left-wing alternative appears, taking out their votes. But that wouldn’t happen before 2040 or so.

[Red Velvet]

New Datafolha poll:

Opinion on Lula's government:
Good/Great - 38% (+1)
Bad/Terrible - 31% (+3)
Regular - 30% (-3)
Don't know - 2% (-1)

Expectations of Lula's government going forward:
43% think Lula's government will be good/great going forward
28% think it'll be bad/terrible going forward
26% think it'll be regular
2% have no opinion

Has Lula done more or less than you expected?
Less - 53%
About what I expected - 25%
More - 17%
Don't know - 3%
Answered something else - 2%

Lula's numbers are better than Bolsonaro's at this point in his presidency (29% good/great, 38% bad/terrible, 30% regular), but worse than basically everyone else (FHC only had 15% bad/terrible, Dilma had 11% and back in his first term, Lula had 10%).

Expected results in the sense they’re better than Bolsonaro’s but still lower than what we were used to between 1994-2014. Impossible to depolarize society in months, IF it happens it would take a full successful term, maybe even two.

More from DATAFOLHA:

- 29% declare themselves as Petistas (“PT supporters”)
- 11% Neutral but leaning to Petistas
- 21% Neutral
- 7% Neutral but leaning to Bolsonarists
- 25% declare themselves as Bolsonarists

Basically the “left” is 40% of the electorate, the “right” a third of it and the rest is the weak center that has to fall in line with one of the two.

Clearly, even with all the setbacks they’ve suffered in this year, Bolsonarism will stay as the “right-wing” force for years to come. Important to say that because there are some people in power who believe that if we “destroy” Bolsonaro’s image and reputation, his support will die down.

I mean, that can even maybe work for Bolsonaro as a person but it’s obvious that this won’t change the new brand of “conservativism” that he represented. I would even say he was just randomly picked by the base that had already been radicalized during 2013-2018 period, with Dilma’s impeachment and Lula’s imprisonment all being elements that PROPELLED AND VALIDATED this shift.

It was only with Bolsonaro’s election and presence in power that major parts of the ~establishment~ woke up to how much the right had really radicalized and felt emboldened because of the establishment support they received, against the left. So now I’m under the interpretation there’s a hard “correction attempt” by said establishment in order to kill the new right that emerged and bring back a more establishment-friendly one, such as the one that was represented by PSDB neoliberals.

With a sane right back, they would be able to go back to harshly oppose the left without fear or guilt about the possibility of facilitating a Bolsonaro or one of his anti-democratic allies emergence. Which is why nowadays you see a complete shift in how domestic media treated PT in comparison to the 2010s.

That is something that will inevitably fail. The new right is clearly here to stay, under Bolsonaro as a representative or not. I do think you can definitely weaken Bolsonarism through repression but not kill it, it’s what they did with PT for example, weakening its support to 29% in 2018 1st round. But not weakening it enough for it not to be the main alternative to the winning person, putting it into a good position for future elections.

It will be the exact same thing with Bolsonarism what we saw happening with PT. By hitting Bolsonaro, you strengthen PT’s chances to win while not really being able to kill Bolsonarism’s core support after it has already been radicalized and validated into existence.

We have an extremely dumb and shallow media personalities who see themselves as intelectuals but are dumb as hell, incapable of thinking about anything on the macro spectrum as they have extremely short sighted eye. They feel like they can elevate the chances of who they WISHED could’ve win by attempting to destroy the others.

Ganging up on PT in 2010s didn’t bring the PSDB victory they hoped for and the same thing will be true in regards to Bolsonaro. Destroying him will not bring back PSDB as the right-wing representative as they want. It’s time they accept the country as it is in reality, outside their own heads.

[Red Velvet]

Lula’s full UN speech:

[Red Velvet]

The Indigenous “Marco Temporal” from congress being rejected in the Supreme Court as it already reached a necessary majority of 6.

7 against; 2 in favor (the two ministers nominated by Bolsonaro), with 2 others still to vote.

Thank heavens for the Supreme Court because we would be in Stone Age if we depended on our congress for anything.

Legislative power (“Big Center” land) is easily the worst of the three powers. Always has been. 50% of the country problems would be eliminated with a more decent congress.

The “Marco Temporal” was a theory launched that interpreted the constitutional right of Indigenous lands to exist based on the date of the 1988 constitution. That basically means Indigenous people would only have the right to occupy land that they already did back in 1988 and before without being entitled to the demarcation of new Indigenous land. That has now been rejected by the Supreme Court.

Great result but expected. I am dead curious about the Abortion vote. It’s about freaking damn time. We’re lagging behind in comparison to freaking Latin America - where we should have been a leadership instead of mere followers.

[Red Velvet]

NEW ATLAS POLL asked people in many different government areas whether they though the Lula government was better or worse than the Bolsonaro one.

Best perceived area in comparison is Foreign Policy, with a +18 net difference for Better

Worst perceived area in comparison is Public Safety, with a +1 net difference for Better

That means, Lula government is currently being considered better by Brazilians in ALL areas, including the ones where the Right-Wing tends to have better appeal and approval, which is Public Safety, even if it’s only marginally.

Areas from Better approval in comparison to Bolsonaro to Worst:

1. Foreign Policy: +18 net
2. Human Rights and Racial Equality: +18 net
3. Tourism, Culture and Events: +17 net
4. Environmental Policy: +15 net
5. Poverty Reduction and Social Policy: +14 net
6. Agricultural Policy: +14 net
7. Education Policy: +13 net
8. Investments; Infrastructure and Public Constructions: +12 net
9. Health Policy: +11 net
10. Housing and Urbanization of Favelas: +10 net
11. Fiscal Responsibility and Spending Control: +8 net
12. Easiness for Business and Tax Burden: +7 net
13. Transports; Roads and Airports: +7 net
14. Justice and Fighting against Corruption: +6 net
15. Industrial and Energetic Policy: +6 net
16. Public Safety: +1 net

Very typical list on matters where the left is more popular going to where it’s least popular tbh. The big right-wing populist appeal from Bolsonaro came from their rhetoric on Public Safety and Corruption in government, demanding for left-wing politicians to be locked up. And even in those two matters, Lula is currently more popular than Bolsonaro.

Besides that, you also have other topics where the right sells itself more often, regarding Business easiness, Fiscal Responsibility in the 2nd half of the list as well, unsurprisingly.

On the top on the list otoh, you see topics where Bolsonaro was most criticized for (ex: His racism; his anti-environmental rhetoric; his isolationism regarding Foreign Policy) or matters where the Right is naturally more unpopular (ex: Poverty Reduction; Culture Policy; etc).

[Red Velvet]

New MDA/CNT poll measured evaluation of the government, its approval and also the one of multiple public political figures.

Lula’s Government EVALUATION:

Great - 15,9%
Good - 24,7%
Regular (Means neither Good or Bad, just Average) - 30,1%
Bad - 8,3%
Awful - 18,9%

Lula’s Government APPROVAL:

Approve - 54,9%
Disapprove - 39,0%
Don’t Know - 6,1%

Multiple political figures OPINION from best to worst:

1. Lula (Current President of Brazil) - net of +18
Positive - 49%
Negative - 31%

2. Geraldo Alckmin (Current Vice-President and Minister of Industry, Commerce and Development) - net of -3
Positive - 25%
Negative - 28%

3. Fernando Haddad (Current Minister of Economy) - net of -5
Positive - 28%
Negative - 33%

4. Alexandre de Moraes (Supreme Court Minister who gets lots of media) - net of -11
Positive - 25%
Negative - 36%

5 & 6. Arthur Lira and Rodrigo Pacheco (Respectively, Current President of Congress and the Current President of the Senate) - net of -17
Positive - 7% for Lira and 6% for Pacheco
Negative - 24% for Lira and 23% for Pacheco

7. Dilma Rousseff (Former President of Brazil; Current President of the BRICS Bank) - net of -21
Positive - 27%
Negative - 48%

8. Sérgio Moro (Current Senator; Former “Car-Wash” Operation Judge) - net of -22
Positive - 23%
Negative- 45%

9. Jair Bolsonaro (Former President of Brazil) - net of -25
Positive - 26%
Negative- 51%

10. Aécio Neves (Current Congressman; Former PSDB candidate in the 2014 Election) - net of -37
Positive - 8%
Negative - 45%

11. Michel Temer (Former President of Brazil) - net of -43
Positive - 8%
Negative - 51%

Opinion about Lula is extremely impressive when you compare it to the one from other political figures. Considering global and national polarization, where people are extremely demanding and unsatisfied about anything, Lula achieving a personal net approval and being the only one able to do so evidences how he’s the best and only alternative to unite the country. Anyone else would have fared much worse, regardless of what political camp they’re a part of.

[Red Velvet]

Omg I am going to Roger’s concert in Rio too!

Nice to see that he was with Lula today, Lula always meets with these foreign left-wing singers. He also did it with Coldplay.

I love Roger because he’s one of the few western celebs that have the balls to speak the truth to his people and they hear him.

[Red Velvet]

Haddad, Alckmin and Dino are probably the bigger names.

Marina Silva feels more like a card to use to prove the government pro-environmental credentials but she never will feel like a real part of the government, more like someone who is also there as an “intruder” and who does their own thing.

Simone Tebet everyone knows is only there as a “thank you” from Lula for openly endorsing him in the runoff after losing.

Other names are either technical non-politician names OR occupy ministries that are small OR are bland establishment or less memorable politicians that don’t really register in people’s minds. Even Camilo Santana, occupying an important seat as Minister of Education.

Haddad and Alckmin are naturally “big” for having running for president before and coming in 2nd place both (2018 and 2006 respectively), being more present in the public imaginary. Minister of Economy is also extremely important position that gives a large presence to Haddad too. And Alckmin is now probably the most known/existent in the public imaginary Vice-President that we ever had considering usually very few people know who they even are, Alckmin is an exception to this because people already know him after years of political exposure in the media.

Flávio Dino is more about his perceived potential to lead the left after Lula but not only I don’t see it for him at all, he could be very well be the frontrunner to be Lula’s next pick for the Supreme Court seat that is vacant. He’s from a non-PT left party, so there are theories PT would love to send him to the Supreme Court in order to put him out as a future competitor for the left support but like I said, that’s bullsh**t because Dino doesn’t really have the same charisma exactly.

If I had to predict, Lula’s sucessor in the PT is very naturally Haddad indeed. His main issue is that leftist sectors aren’t fans of him and would prefer someone more exciting, which is how some specific groups see Dino for example.

I think Haddad would consolidate PT as a real centrist party in Brazilian politics, it would be interesting to see some liberals who always hated the left voting for him cuz they like him or are okay with him tho

[Red Velvet]

That expulsion is kinda why PDT is irrelevant and not taken seriously as something with an actual identity tbh

Regardless of Nova Resistência sucking or not, who really cares about whatever the US department of state thinks? Lmao. PDT was looking for an excuse, if anything all this only gives more visibility to an irrelevant group.

Nova Resistência leaderships suck btw, but not because of the reasons you see liberals use. They’re so into that “4th Political Theory” stuff that some of these people really bought the nonsense “bothsides” narrative about Lula and Bolsonaro being the same sellouts. Or even worse, that Bolsonaro was a “sovereign-conservative” and Lula a “liberal-globalist” lmaaaao

I’m not going to pretend Lula is some Getúlio Vargas nationalist type at all (I wish!), but it’s extremely offensive to even associate Bozo with any concept of “sovereignty” when he was the biggest example of wanting to sell the country that we probably ever had lmao.

I’m somewhat sympathetic towards Duginists and “Conservative Leftists” in theory but whenever some of them use labels with no ground on reality in order to try to hit both sides equally so that they can try to signal how different and an alternative they are to the main political forces simultaneously, they end up looking just ignorant and as attention-seekers to me.

It’s like, they act they can pick some stuff from Lula and “the left”, mix with some stuff from Bolsonaro and “the right” and you will have reached this nationalist ideal that they supposedly defend. Thing is, there’s absolutely nothing really useful a nationalist can use from Bozo and what he represents when he’s the opposite of what the word nationalist means.

[Red Velvet]

I was right at front of the stage so I managed to take some really cool pics that I’ll upload and post.

In the meantime, here’s Roger Waters being awarded the Pedro Ernesto medal by the Rio City Council, the highest honor from the Rio de Janeiro City:

https://twitter.com/rogerwaters/status/1718132954432499871
The show was pretty awesome, nothing that you wouldn’t imagine from Roger Waters though. There wasn’t anything that controversial at all, I guess the moments the western liberals would clutch their pearls the most was when Roger made a pause to talk with the audience and said he wished Joe Biden would take his phone and call Putin in order to arrange a peaceful solution to the Ukraine conflict, so that leaders would go back to talking to one another and arrange diplomatic solutions instead of military ones?

Or when he showed pictures of all US presidents since Ronald Reagan  on the screen during one of his songs with “War Criminal” words over all of them, both republicans and democrats? Or when he referred to Chelsea Manning and Julian Assange as brave heroes?

[Red Velvet]

Red Velvet Pics:

[Red Velvet]

Anti-Halloween sentiment is something that unites Evangelicals, Catholics and Progressives.

The religious groups see it as expression of Paganism while Progressives see it as a cultural import from US.

Honestly, I hear way more about it these days but more about the idea of parties where people go dressed or horror movies marathons and selections on the theater. I’ve never seen kids in costumes going around asking for candy at all because it’s something that wouldn’t work at all in here.

I don’t see anything wrong with embracing it, especially if you bring the fun parts and adapt to the local culture. That said, there is the real concern that local traditions get weaker in the meantime. We already have São Cosme e Damião as the “Catholic” day where we distribute candy to children after all. Halloween is basically only São Cosme e Damião Day + Carnaval with Horror theme surround so if any kid came to my door asking for candy today, I would slam the door in their face because it’s not Cosme e Damião Day.

Keep the Halloween stuff to youth parties and movie marathons only, without bringing the foreign “traditions” to replace already existing ones. I loooooved to help my mom as a kid to prepare the São Cosme Damião candy packs to distribute around later. Receiving it from tons of people in the next day was very fun too!

That said, I think what weakens these more collective cultural aspects is more the rise of individualism tied to people living in their phones more often.

[Red Velvet]

After Brazilians in Gaza are back to Brazil, LULA FINALLY criticizes Israel more incisively and compares their actions as similar to the terrorism of Hamas.

Lula was under intense pressure from the Brazilian Left for calling Hamas terrorists earlier while saying nothing against Israel actions in Palestine.

[Red Velvet]

Brazil is joining OPEC+ after a Saudi Arabia invitation:

https://twitter.com/LulaOficial/status/1730855959382143283

[Red Velvet]

Datafolha poll shows general stability on Lula’s government evaluation:

Great / Good - 38% (no change)
Average / Okay - 30% (no change)
Bad / Awful - 30% (-1)

Comparison are with last poll from September.

At same time, people seemed to be expecting more to be done, so the movements from IPEC represent less a growth of dissatisfaction and more Honeymoon phase being over and people wanting to see deeper and harsher change after a year. According to Datafolha:

57% think the government did LESS THAN WHAT THEY EXPECTED at this point
24% think the government did ABOUT WHAT THEY EXPECTED at this point
16% think the government did MORE THAN WHAT THEY EXPECTED at this point
3% are Others/Don’t Know

It’s really interesting though, because Datafolha also measured numbers close to the record high in the question of whether respondents were satisfied about living in Brazil:

74% Brazilians say Brazil is a Great or Good place to live (+15 from December 2022)
18% Brazilians say Brazil is an Average place to live (-15 from December 2022)
8% Brazilians say Brazil is a Bad or Awful place to live (-1 from December 2022)

Which means the satisfaction with the country is in its highest in comparison to past 10 years! It shows that it’s less about the government doing something wrong and more that voters are extremely more demanding and with bigger expectations these days - I don’t think that’s only a Brazil trend. Everywhere, the anti-incumbency trend comes from leaders not being able to live up to extremely high demands and expectations.

So Lula is doing quite well with these numbers considering everything. One of the few democratic leaders with an approval that’s still higher than their disapproval.

Btw, regarding the question of satisfaction about living in Brazil, these polls are made since 2000. These are the historical highs of satisfaction and dissatisfaction:

Highest Satisfaction about living in Brazil - Measured in July 2005, when Brazil was starting to see the effects of the 00s economic growth period under Lula.

Highest Dissatisfaction about living in Brazil - Measured in April 2018, during Michel Temer’s final year in presidency and on the eve of the election that elected Jair Bolsonaro.

Another question from DATAFOLHA wanted to know if Brazilians feel more PRIDE OR SHAME about their nationality:

83% feel more pride than shame (+6 from December 2022)
16% feel more shame than pride (-5 from December 2022)

[Red Velvet]

Largest immigrant groups (foreign born) in Brazil from 1500 to 2023:

Interesting to see how the country was shaped across time. American immigration only starts showing up in the end, with LatAm + USA entering the list.

In USA you see similar trends of American immigration going up, replacing the trend of strong European immigration from XX Century.

[Red Velvet]

Lula is in big trouble if he continues with his anti Israel rhetoric in a society that 80% support Israel. The fact that this russophile thug won the election running under so many despised platforms in Brazil makes me think fraud was needed to let him win.

Lmao at 80% of Brazil.

Bb, I guarantee you most Brazilians simply don’t care. Not just about Israel/Palestine, but literally about any conflict going on far from our living sphere. Brazilians are extremely insular people and self-immersed culturally.

Only exception may be hardline evangelicals, who seem in love with Israel but are already socially discredit by intelectual elites who naturally see them as insane and radicalized.

What Lula says about Israel is no different than what EVERYBODY in third world is currently saying btw. However, it feels more threatening exactly because westerners recognize Lula’s influence and greatness as a global leadership, which adds power to the global south voice.

If anything Lula has been extremely soft in his Israel rhetoric for the longest time, which angered somewhat people on the left, his electorate base. With Ukraine he was always way more vocal about achieving Peace deals, about Israel he almost never said stuff and when he finally did make more incisive criticism of Israel it was already after way too long.

I get it’s more about hard geopolitics (Israel is more important than Ukraine blah blah blah) but when smaller South Africa has stronger stances in order to drive global discussions in the right path, you just end up looking spineless in comparison.

[Red Velvet]

Lula is in big trouble if he continues with his anti Israel rhetoric in a society that 80% support Israel. The fact that this russophile thug won the election running under so many despised platforms in Brazil makes me think fraud was needed to let him win.

Lmao at 80% of Brazil.

Bb, I guarantee you most Brazilians simply don’t care. Not just about Israel/Palestine, but literally about any conflict going on far from our living sphere. Brazilians are extremely insular people and self-immersed culturally.

Only exception may be hardline evangelicals or something, who seem in love with Israel but are already socially discredit by intelectual elites who naturally see them as insane and radicalized.

What Lula says about Israel is no different than what EVERYBODY in third world is currently saying btw. However, it feels more threatening exactly because westerners recognize Lula’s influence and greatness as a global leadership, which adds power to the global south voice.

Brazil is America's South American cousin. We have so much in common.

We entered on each other lists of top immigrants for the first time ever around the same time! So trend is for us to become more connected. Though USA naturally receives a LOT more immigrants overall from everywhere:

[Red Velvet]

Lula is one of the few national leaders in the world in 2023/24 who has a >50% approval rate

Not only his administration, but also his foreign policy has a positive net approval rate, according to Atlas poll conducted in November 2023

Not only this but Foreign Policy was also the highest well-rated aspects of his presidency according to that November 2023 Atlas poll in terms of the % who said “Great”.

Though I don’t think it means large widespread support for Lula’s positions in Ukraine and Israel either (like I said, normal people just don’t care much), people just compare to the Foreign Relations that Bolsonaro had and he didn’t get along with literally anyone, which makes easy to look great on the matter.

But besides that comparison, Lula has constructed the image of a Statesman that is present and involved in Global discussions, which naturally elevates perceptions of Foreign Policy simply because it’s something he shows himself present and interested by with all his international travels.

Lula’s government segments rated by Brazilians in Atlas November 2023 poll, from best to worst:

1.  Agricultural Policy: +15 net between Great + Good and Bad + Awful
- Great - 37%
- Good - 15%
- Average - 11%
- Bad - 8%
- Awful - 29%

2. Foreign Policy: +12 net
- Great - 47%
- Good - 6%
- Average - 6%
- Bad - 4%
- Awful - 37%

3. Human Rights and Racial Equality: +12 net
- Great - 44%
- Good - 8%
- Average - 8%
- Bad - 8%
- Awful - 32%

4. Tourism, Culture and Events: +7 net
- Great - 32%
- Good - 18%
- Average - 8%
- Bad - 6%
- Awful - 37%

5. Education Policy: +6 net
- Great - 35%
- Good - 15%
- Average - 6%
- Bad - 7%
- Awful - 37%

6. Investments; Infrastructure and Public Constructions: +5 net
- Great - 33%
- Good - 13%
- Average - 13%
- Bad - 4%
- Awful - 37%

7. Easiness for Business and Tax Burden: +4 net
- Great - 30%
- Good - 18%
- Average - 8%
- Bad - 7%
- Awful - 37%

8. Poverty Reduction and Social Policy: +3 net
- Great - 42%
- Good - 5%
- Average - 9%
- Bad - 5%
- Awful - 39%

9. Industrial and Energetic Policy: +2 net
- Great - 31%
- Good - 17%
- Average - 7%
- Bad - 9%
- Awful - 37%

10. Justice and Fighting against Corruption: +2 net
- Great - 29%
- Good - 20%
- Average - 4%
- Bad - 6%
- Awful - 41%

11. Health Policy: +2 net
- Great - 25%
- Good - 21%
- Average - 10%
- Bad - 7%
- Awful - 37%

12. Fiscal Responsibility and Spending Control: +1 net
- Great - 32%
- Good - 16%
- Average - 6%
- Bad - 5%
- Awful - 42%

13. Transports; Roads and Airports: +1 net
- Great - 27%
- Good - 19%
- Average - 10%
- Bad - 5%
- Awful - 40%

14. Environmental Policy: 0 net
- Great - 37%
- Good - 8%
- Average - 10%
- Bad - 7%
- Awful - 38%

15. Public Safety: -4 net
- Great - 27%
- Good - 16%
- Average - 11%
- Bad - 6%
- Awful - 41%

16. Housing and Urbanization of Favelas: -4 net
- Great - 26%
- Good - 17%
- Average - 11%
- Bad - 9%
- Awful - 38%

In comparison to whether people think these aspects are better or worse under Lula in comparison to Bolsonaro, the main figure of the Right:

1. Foreign Policy: +10 net
- Better - 52%
- Worse - 42%

2. Tourism, Culture and Events: +8 net
- Better - 51%
- Worse - 43%

3. Human Rights and Racial Equality: +6 net
- Better - 49%
- Worse - 43%

4. Environmental Policy: +3 net
- Better - 49%
- Worse - 46%

5. Poverty Reduction and Social Policy: +3 net
- Better - 48%
- Worse - 45%

6. Agricultural Policy: +2 net
- Better - 50%
- Worse - 48%

7. Education Policy: +2 net
- Better - 49%
- Worse - 47%

8. Easiness for Business and Tax Burden: +2 net
- Better - 46%
- Worse - 44%

9. Transports; Roads and Airports: +2 net
- Better - 44%
- Worse - 42%

10. Investments; Infrastructure and Public Constructions: +1 net
- Better - 49%
- Worse - 48%

11. Health Policy: +1 net
- Better - 46%
- Worse - 45%

12. Housing and Urbanization of Favelas: +1 net
- Better - 43%
- Worse - 42%

13. Industrial and Energetic Policy: -3 net
- Better - 45%
- Worse - 48%

14. Public Safety: -3 net
- Better - 45%
- Worse - 48%

15. Justice and Fighting against Corruption: -4 net
- Better - 45%
- Worse - 48%

16. Fiscal Responsibility and Spending Control: -8 net
- Better - 43%
- Worse - 51%

Between the two methods, I find the 2nd one much more useful because it measures approval in relation to your main opposition. But you need to look at both simultaneously to have a clear picture.

For example, Agricultural Policy is easily the highest rated aspect of Lula’s policy but that’s because of how the Agro has grown so much in recent years helping drive up economic growth, meaning it was very well-evaluated under Bolsonaro as well. In the 2nd method, Lula’s Agro policy is still better rated but the +2 net is much closer than the previous +15 when people look at the government by itself without being stimulated to compare it to the previous one.

Same thing Environmental policy but the reverse happens. When people are asked to judge Lula’s environmental policy by itself you get tepid numbers, with a tie between positive and negative evaluations resulting in a 0 net. However when compared to Bolsonaro, that net grows to +3 in favor of Lula and Environmental Policy is the category that moves up in position the most, going from #14 in 1st method (one of the last) to #4 in 2nd method (one of the highest).

Foreign Policy is very consistent in both measures (#2 and #1), which means Lula’s foreign policy is very well-rated in comparison to Bolsonaro but evaluating by itself as well.

Interesting to notice that the government positive margins of evaluation happen when it’s seen by itself instead of compared to Bolsonaro, which tells something that people may not realize but it’s very real: Bolsonaro is still quite popular even after a year of his presidency and being declared ineligible - at least for half of the Brazilian population. He only was defeated because Lula is also extremely popular.

When we talk about comparing to Bolsonaro, the liberals here may have the impression the evaluation goes obviously up because of their own bias but that’s not the case at all. The populist right very much connects with a wide variety if people and that includes a good number of people who are sympathetic towards Lula as well and that would easily have voted Bolsonaro if Lula wasn’t running.

[Red Velvet]

I disagree that it was worse when you look at the actual consequences of both events:

Brazil: Bolsonaro already declared ineligible, has his passport seized and allies jailed and soon is going to prison himself.

USA: Trump about to get elected again this year because no one did anything to hold him accountable.

Sure, it had potential to end much worse, I agree. But the fact that it didn’t and we escaped from it matters a lot and much more.

Btw, PL party president Valdemar Costa Neto was also jailed today by the federal police after an unregistered gun was found at his place. Many Bolsonaro allies like Filipe Martins, who aided with international relations stuff, also got imprisoned.

Just an hour ago the news here started talking about a coup declaration being found at the PL headquarters, they were planning after their defeat in 2022 to declare a State of siege in order to keep Bolsonaro as president either way lol.

There was a lot of military quiet support let’s say, but many refused in the inside not because they’re democrats but because they thought it wouldn’t work or be sustainable. So they’re not exactly heroes either, just not as stupid and more cowardly than the hardline Bolsominions there who really pushed for it.

The Army commander denial was apparently decisive in the attempt not even going forward. The Navy commander otoh at the time wanted to go for it.

Everything is well documented, the Federal Police got everything and they say the documentation of the coup planning and intent, even if not consumed, is even more widely documented than the actual 1964 coup that happened. These people are fuuuuuuuuuucked.

[Red Velvet]

Everything is well documented, the Federal Police got everything and they say the documentation of the coup planning and intent, even if not consumed, is even more widely documented than the actual 1964 coup that happened. These people are fuuuuuuuuuucked.

Priceless. They are so incompetent that they needed to have every single step written, otherwise they would "trip over their own feet". And, nonetheless, they did indeed "trip over their own feet" and now they have everything exposed.

It’s not just written.

There are recordings of meetings with Bolsonaro himself:

https://twitter.com/BrunnoMeloCBN/status/1755903503652864420
These are only TWO excerpts but I like this one in particular because he completely roasts himself and his presidency there: “Essa cadeira é uma cagada” lol

[Red Velvet]

Everything is well documented, the Federal Police got everything and they say the documentation of the coup planning and intent, even if not consumed, is even more widely documented than the actual 1964 coup that happened. These people are fuuuuuuuuuucked.

Priceless. They are so incompetent that they needed to have every single step written, otherwise they would "trip over their own feet". And, nonetheless, they did indeed "trip over their own feet" and now they have everything exposed.

It’s not just written.

There are recordings of meetings with Bolsonaro himself:

Wait, did they recorded it on purpose or was it secretly taped?

That video was recorded by military ally and helper of Bolsonaro, Mauro Cid. He worked in his government basically as a “Faz Tudo” / “Do-it-all”, responsible to follow general orders from Bolsonaro.

He is a “Colonel-Tenant” from the Brazilian Army and was going to become a full Coronel (Colonel in English), which is the 3rd Highest Army rank that it exists, behind Marshal and General, at least before his involvement in this stuff began to explode in the media last year.

Mauro Cid had the video in his personal computer, which was apprehended by the Brazilian federal police in May 2023. The video and its content however is only being released to the public today.

I am not aware of the reasons for recording the meeting but I’ve seen it being branded as “Uncarefulness” that he simply kept it in his computer instead of “Betrayal” that he even recorded it in the 1st place.

So I assume he was only following the president orders and that everyone there knew they were being recorded.

[Red Velvet]

This was all treated as a bit of a joke at the time, I certainly did not realise it was in reality so serious.

What, the people in government actively wanting a coup to stay in power even if they lost the elections? It shouldn’t be surprising when you understand the real background they came from, especially Bolsonaro.

What was decisive was never the good intentions of these people because they never had that, but:

A) The intelligence and competence to pull-off a coup of the kind
B) The courage to actually go through with it and risk their heads if it wasn’t sustainable for long
C) The resilience to face the giant amount of opposition and isolation they would face, both domestically and internationally, after the fact.

The Brazilian Right clearly has 0 out of 3 of these things, so I never really bought the fear of regime change actually going through in Brazil like it happened in 1964, even if they actually went through with it.

That they didn’t even if they wanted is only relevant to me in how it shows that they themselves KNOW they’re not good enough to pull and sustain that kind of stuff for long, so at least some minimal level of self-awareness these people do have about their individual limitations despite the theatrical high self-confidence to say stupid stuff out loud.

If the self-confidence was higher than the self-awareness, they would risk their heads for what they truly always believed in and never stopped doing so since after the fall of the Military Regime.

The thing people have to understand about Brazilian Right is that they cannot even be called part of an “ideological Right” like it exists in other countries. That requires some level of minimal intellectual baggage, to be ideologically associated to one side or the other.. Even Milei believes in something ideological though extreme; European right does believe in something too, even the GOP in USA to some degree in their multiple facets through time.

The only thing that ideologically defined Bolsonaro; military regime dictatorship and even the whole popular uproar in Brazilian street protests of 2010s was purely based on hate and opposition for the Left / PT / Lula.

Like, they can be effective to point out only stuff they are AGAINST, which is extremely useful electorally whenever people aren’t satisfied with whoever is in government. But having only destructive power and zero constructive power makes you useless when you’re in actual government, which is why they eventually always lose in the long term. They can impose serious damage but they can really never win if they don’t have anything to stand up to themselves.

Even most of the declared “agenda” of the Bolsonaro movement seems a rehash of old failed ideas or new imported trash from USA that doesn’t speak to actual reality and issues from Brazil, such as facilitation of access to guns or antivaxx stuff when 99% of population vaccinated themselves for COVID. Brazilian Right lives in a world that isn’t real, except on the inside if their heads. Which is why it’s hard to be seriously concerned with them.

[Red Velvet]

On the Brazil Reddit practically everyone supports Lula’s statement and are mocking Israel. But I wouldn’t call people there far-left at all, more like your average high-education young progressive centrist person that leans way more to left after the Bolsonaro years.

It’s about putting the same weight of massacres happening inside the White world borders into massacres that happens outside those borders. Argument about diminishing Holocaust weight is ridiculous because it’s all about ADDING weight to the genocide that is currently happening and that people keep creating excuses to ignore.

The impressions on the matter seems to lean on how people position themselves on the left/right spectrum but more than that, it heavily depends on the low-information/high-information demographics as well. With the more high-education demos being more likely to align with Lula’s speech. Vosem had a point before in a different thread when he talked about low-information right-wing demos in Brazil suddenly turning very Pro-Israel.

I do think it’s hilarious how the Brazilian Far-Right always sucked politically neutral people like Monark just because of the “Freedom of Expression” speech when it was convenient for them. Now that Monark is actively defending Lula statement as the truth he’s being treated as traitor by the  Bolsominions and the Liberals that always sympathized with him.

And that’s because he never even defended Israel previously, but people’s takeaway from defending something one side say then that means you’re with that side lol. I’ve seen people in the Right calling Monark a Petista.

It’s kinda ridiculous how campism seems to define most people positions these days. The moment someone has ANY critical thinking about any position of their “camp” they’re treated like enemies lol.