BPS Latino voters in AZ, CA, NV - Biden +20, +22, +15

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Why are Latinos so lukewarm on Catholic Joe? Bernie whooped his ass among them while the 2020 primary was still competitive too.

Latino numbers were highly pumped up 2008-2016. Obama was the first non-white candidate and ran as a populist so this probably gave him a slight boost. He was also on the younger side which helps him here as Latinos are younger on average.

Clinton hammered Trump hard on immigration in 2016 and so did very well, but this effect wore off as he became an incumbent.

We are seeing a return to the usual 90s/early2000s numbers among Latinos

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Trump in the 30s is the relevant number to look at. That contradicts the idea that he's improving with Hispanic voters.

In literally no presidential election has it been useful to look at the actual % number voting for someone. It's the margin.

If we're going by that method then Biden is bound to lose in a landslide "47% of Arizona latinos won't vote for Biden!!!"

It is useful when Trump's base numbers are been predictable for the most part. And that doesn't even account for how he was overestimated to varying degrees in primary polling. This polling points to Trump losing that Hispanic vote in these states between 64-36 and 66-34.

Uh no it doesn't???

There's no reason you should assume Trump's number stays where it is but Biden picks up literally every undecided.

Duh, yes it does. Rarely doesn't anyone lingering in the 30s perform much better against a candidate who is over 50%. California statewide polling is a good example of this.

Undecideds do not all go one way lmao.
Otherwise I could say "look Biden is only at 44% in Michigan, he's gonna lose it by double digits!"

Also third party will be bigger this year than in 2020 so looking at vote share is useless.